Financial News · Live Terminal

Page 32 of 58

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Flat Amid Ongoing US-Iran Stalemate in Hormuz

European natural gas futures were largely flat on Thursday, while still holding onto their gains from earlier this week, as the ongoing stalemate between the US and Iran kept concerns over global gas supplies elevated.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was unchanged at 46.90 euros ($54.91) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 0.11% to 115.16 British pence ($1.56) per therm.The strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the 11th week running, after US President Donald Trump rejected Iran's response to a US-backed ceasefire proposal earlier this week.Over the past 24 hours, 17 vessels transited via the Strait, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor. While this marks an uptick compared to recent figures, it is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 vessels per day before the conflict began.This comes at a particularly critical juncture for European gas markets, with the region's inventories significantly depleted, at just 35.72% of capacity, compared to 43.1% during the same period last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventory levels were also significantly below the five-year average for this time of year, at 48.4%, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist at Blue Water Strategy, warned that the markets were still pricing this conflict as being "temporary," while maritime transport prices were showing the opposite, with war-risk premiums, rerouting costs, insurance, inflation, and more, becoming "structurally embedded into the global energy system."

Oil & Energy41d ago

Market Chatter: Global Refining Output Deals Biggest Blow in Years due to Iran, Ukraine Wars

About 9% of global oil refining capacity has been knocked offline in the last few months amid conflict in Iran and Ukraine, Reuters reported on Thursday, deepening a global energy crisis and slowing any rebound in supply once the Strait of Hormuz eventually reopens.Damage to refining facilities and disrupted supplies of crude oil feedstocks have combined to cut refinery throughput and production of fuels, making for the worst dent to global refinery operations since the Covid-19 pandemic, the Reuters article said.Saxo Bank analyst Ole Hansen told Reuters that "current tightness will continue to underpin the refined product market ... Not least considering the damage done to refineries," he said.Jet fuel has surged in price faster than other refined products, taking it to a record level in March, the article said. Crude prices themselves are at around their highest in four years. Diesel and gasoil are frequently cited as the fuels with the most acute supply shortages.Around 500 million barrels has been withdrawn from global oil reserves, Reuters reported, citing TotalEnergies (TTE) CEO Patrick Pouyanne in late April. He said the figure could rise to 1 billion barrels even if the conflict ended soon, since supply recovery will take time."Even if the war was to end quickly, prices are expected to remain at high levels," he said, according to the article.In barrel terms, the Iran war had shut down about 3.52 million barrels of oil per day of processing by May 7, the article said, citing industry monitor IIR.Ras Tanura, the largest in Saudi Arabia has restarted but not fully, with some units still undergoing work, according to Amin Nasser, Saudi Aramco CEO.Kuwait's Mina Al-Ahmadi and Mina-Abdullah were also struck by drones.The Russia-Ukraine war has taken about 1.42 million bpd offline, the article said, citing IIR data, with Ukrainian attacks taking about 700,000 bpd of Russian refining capacity offline between January and May at 16 locations.Reduced availability of crude oil amid the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has reduced refining throughput in Asia and Europe combined by 3.8 million bpd, JPMorgan estimates, according to the article.Refinery outages linked to the Iran and Russia-Ukraine wars roughly equate to 9% of 100.5 million barrels per day of global refining capacity, IIR said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy41d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Steadies as Markets Pivot to Trump-Xi Meeting

Brent futures steadied on Thursday, as traders adopted a wait-and-see approach ahead of a pivotal meeting between the US and Chinese presidents.The Brent futures contract was steady at $105.68 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $104.15 on May 13 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update.The market shifted its focus toward the high-stakes summit between President Donald Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing."The market could be pinning too much hope on the US-China talks yielding some positive results on Iran. Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said.Meanwhile, president Trump has sought to temper expectations, prioritizing trade negotiations and asserting that Washington has the Iran situation "under control."In its latest monthly report, the IEA slashed its 2026 outlook, now forecasting a global demand contraction of 420,000 barrels per day.OPEC's production plummeted by 1.73 mb/d in April to 18.98 million bbl/d, the group noted in its monthly oil market report.This output collapse reflects the tightening grip of the Hormuz blockade, with the data notably including the final month of UAE membership before its May 1 departure from the group, analysts noted.US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 mmbbls in the week ended May 8, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Spain Aviation, Energy Groups Push Madrid to Back European e-SAF Auction

Over 21 Spanish aviation and energy groups urged Madrid to commit financial support for a European e-Sustainable Aviation Fuel auction before the June EU Transport Council, Transport & Environment said in a Tuesday statement.The coalition issued a joint letter to the Spanish government urging direct financial support for synthetic SAF, also known as e-SAF.Apart from T&E Spain, which coordinated the effort, the coalition includes airlines, aircraft manufacturers, renewable power companies, and industrial developers in support of public funding for e-SAF projects.The signatories, including Airbus, Moeve, AELEC, RIC Energy and the Spanish Airlines Association, proposed a pilot auction backed by a public intermediary under a structure similar to H2 Global.T&E said Europe imports about 95% of its crude oil, while nearly 30% of jet fuel supplies rely on shipping routes through the Strait of Hormuz.The coalition said disruptions linked to the Iran crisis more than doubled benchmark jet fuel prices and pushed Lufthansa to cancel 20,000 flights through the autumn period.International Energy Agency Executive Director Fatih Birol warned Europe may hold only about six weeks of jet fuel reserves after the recent supply disruptions.T&E estimated geopolitical oil costs added 29 euros ($33.96) per passenger on intra-European flights, compared with just 0.70 euros tied to ReFuelEU compliance requirements.The gap widened on long-haul flights, where fossil fuel exposure lifted costs by 88 euros per passenger while ReFuelEU rules added only about 3 euros, according to T&E.T&E Spain Deputy Director Ioan Bucuras said aviation faces greater risks from oil dependence than from climate regulation."Every euro invested in e-SAF today is an insurance policy against future energy shocks, and a bet on European industrial sovereignty," he said.The coalition identified uncertainty over long-term revenues, technology risks and short-term offtake agreements as the main barriers preventing investment in industrial-scale e-SAF facilities.The groups proposed a two-sided auction system that would guarantee long-term revenues for producers while securing competitively priced fuel supplies for airlines.Germany has already pledged up to 2 billion euros for an e-SAF auction planned by early 2027, while Luxembourg and Portugal are also weighing participation, according to T&E.The coalition urged Spain to join the European Commission taskforce shaping the joint e-SAF pilot auction and ensure the framework supports Spanish projects and domestic fuel buyers.The signatories also asked Madrid to commit funding before the June 26 EU Transport Council by using the Recovery and Resilience Facility and Emissions Trading System revenue, while improving interministerial coordination and stabilizing electricity costs for industry.

Oil & Energy41d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Drops Amid US-Iran Impasse, Market Eyes Trump-Xi Meeting

Crude oil futures retreated in after-hours trading on Wednesday, paring earlier gains, as markets assess a prolonged standoff between the US and Iran, with focus now shifting toward a high-stakes meeting between President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 1.15% to $101 per barrel, while Brent futures fell by 1.92% to $105.70/bbl.US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 mmbbls in the week ended May 8, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. The agency said the stockpiles are now about 0.3% above the five-year average for this time of year.Trump arrived in China on Wednesday after downplaying the attention the ongoing conflict would receive during his summit with President Xi, saying that "we have Iran very much under control," according to media reports.The US President reportedly plans to prioritize trade negotiations during the meeting with the two leaders. China is reportedly the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration.However, despite the retreat on Wednesday, the broader outlook remained bullish. The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day."With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period," the IEA said in its Oil Market Report.The agency projected that the market will remain "severely undersupplied" until October, even if the Middle East conflict ends next month.OPEC on Wednesday said that crude production among member states fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the conflict in late February.The group's production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March. Production among OPEC countries dropped by more than 30%, or 9.7 million b/d, during the conflict.Meanwhile, the effective closure of the Hormuz has significantly disrupted global supplies of crude, natural gas and fuels, stoking fears of reignited inflation.Vietnam's state oil firm reportedly urged the US to let a supertanker laden with crude pass through its naval blockade outside the Persian Gulf, saying the shipment is vital to its economy. The vessel crossed Hormuz but reversed course on Monday near the US blockade.The US Central Command said on Wednesday it has redirected 67 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Enverus Intelligence Research Reaffirms Higher-for-Longer Oil Price Outlook Through 2027

Enverus Intelligence Research reaffirmed its higher-for-longer oil price outlook, maintaining forecasts for Brent crude to average $95 per barrel for the remainder of 2026, the firm said in a Tuesday statement.Enverus maintained $100/bbl through 2027 amid ongoing geopolitical tensions that continue to disrupt global supply flows.The research firm said market pricing and peer forecasts are increasingly converging with its projections, which it first outlined on March 11.The outlook is anchored by the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key global oil transit chokepoint, and by declining crude and refined product inventories in advanced countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development.EIR said its base-case scenario assumes the Strait of Hormuz remains closed for three months. The firm added that each additional month of disruption could increase its oil price outlook by another $10 to $15 per barrel.The report also cited constrained global spare production capacity and a muted US shale supply response as structural factors likely to sustain elevated geopolitical risk premiums in oil markets."Since March 11, our view has been that oil prices would remain higher for longer, and we have not deviated from that position as events have unfolded," Al Salazar, director of research at EIR said."However, our three-month base case closure presumption is about to come due, and the lack of resolution introduces additional uncertainty around the path forward," Salazar said.EIR said prolonged disruption in the Middle East could further tighten global crude supplies, particularly as inventories remain below historical norms.EIR said the combination of supply constraints, geopolitical instability and limited production flexibility among major producers continues to support a structurally higher oil price environment into 2027.

Oil & Energy41d ago

EU Could Save Drivers Up to $87 Billion Through Fuel-Saving Measures, T&E Says

Four transport measures could save European Union drivers up to 74.4 billion euros ($87.13 billion) annually during the current oil price shock, Transport & Environment said Tuesday.The Brussels-based NGO estimated cost savings anywhere between 30 billion euros and 74.4 billion euros.It said the US-Israel conflict involving Iran pushed oil prices to levels last seen during the 2022 energy crisis as the Strait of Hormuz remained blocked.Filling a 55-liter diesel tank costs nearly 30 euros more by mid-April compared with prices before the conflict began.T&E outlined four short-term measures from the International Energy Agency's transport oil demand plan that governments could quickly deploy to reduce fuel consumption and household costs.T&E said remote working policies could save drivers between 7 billion euros and 21.1 billion euros annually by reducing car oil use by 2% to 6%.Reducing motorway speed limits by 10 kilometers per hour could lower annual fuel costs by 3.5 billion euros to 21.1 billion euros while cutting car oil consumption by 1% to 6%, the NGO said.T&E said shifting more drivers toward public transportation could save between 3.5 billion euros and 10.5 billion euros annually through a 1% to 3% reduction in car oil use.Increasing car sharing and eco-driving could deliver the largest savings, cutting annual fuel costs by 17.6 billion euros to 28.1 billion euros while reducing oil use by 5% to 8%, according to the analysis.The NGO said governments could implement these measures quickly without major spending or long development timelines as Europe faces mounting energy security concerns.T&E said electric vehicles remain the only long-term solution that can permanently shield drivers from future oil market shocks and fuel price spikes.T&E urged policymakers to expand remote work, tighten motorway speed enforcement, invest more in public transport and promote eco-driving, tire pressure maintenance and car-sharing while accelerating electric vehicle adoption.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Global Gas Flaring Hits Highest Level Since 2007, OIES Says

Global gas flaring rose in 2024 to its highest level since 2007, with volumes of associated gas burned during oil production continuing to underscore a decade-long failure to materially curb waste and emissions, the Oxford Institute for Energy Studies strategists said in a note on Wednesday.OIES analysts said that despite repeated international commitments to reduce routine flaring, the amount of gas flared per barrel of oil produced has remained broadly unchanged for about 15 years, highlighting a persistent structural challenge in upstream oil and gas operations.The increase in 2024 volumes was driven primarily by a small group of major producers, the energy institute said.The top nine flaring countries, the same core group identified in 2012, albeit in slightly different order, increased their combined flaring by about 30% over the period, lifting their share of global totals to 83% in 2024.Though most other countries showed improvement, the broader global picture was less encouraging.OIES said that about three-quarters of more than 60 countries that flare above 0.01 bcm per year reduced their volumes over the same timeframe, indicating that mitigation efforts have been successful outside the largest emitters.However, the energy institute said the improvement has been insufficient to offset increases elsewhere.Structural constraints continue to limit progress, including persistently low domestic gas prices in some producing regions, as well as sanctions and geopolitical instability that restrict investment in gas capture and utilization infrastructure.OIES said that ongoing geopolitical tensions, including the war between Russia and Ukraine and the Middle East conflict, are further headwinds. Energy infrastructure has increasingly become a target in conflict zones, with damage to upstream processing and gathering systems exacerbating flaring levels.Going forward, the OIES said global flaring in 2025 is unlikely to show meaningful improvement, with Russia in particular expected to remain a major contributor amid continuing conflict-related disruptions.The institute said that 2026 could see further increases if damage to oil and gas infrastructure in the Gulf region persists.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Middle East Crude Outages Nearing 1 Billion Barrels by Late May, Kpler Says

Middle Eastern crude and condensate supply losses reached 782 million barrels by May 8 and could approach 1 billion barrels later this month, Kpler said Wednesday.Regional crude and condensate outages have stabilized near 12.5 million barrels per day in recent weeks as producers adjusted operations to weaker export capacity and lower domestic demand.Kpler said disruptions intensified during the past two weeks as the US blockade reduced Iran's export capacity and forced producers to scale back domestic operations.Iran has shifted remaining ballast tankers in the Middle East Gulf into floating storage to limit further production shut-ins, though available storage capacity is rapidly declining, the report said.Iranian onshore crude inventories continued to rise through May, reaching 66 mmbbls on May 7, up 6 mmbbls from late April, according to Kpler.Kpler still expects a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz by the end of May despite ongoing disruptions across Middle Eastern crude supply chains.The report said Middle Eastern outages significantly shifted the global crude balance, after markets had previously expected large oil surpluses in March and April.Global crude deficits averaged about 2 mmb/d in March and April as weaker refinery activity in Asia and softer fuel demand partly offset supply losses, Kpler said.Global onshore crude inventories fell by 60 mmbbls since late March to around 3 billion barrels, implying average stock draws of roughly 2 mmb/d, according to the report.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Market Chatter: Saudi Oil Output Falls to Lowest Since 1990 as Gulf Conflict Hits Exports

Saudi Arabia cut crude production to 6.316 million barrels per day in April, the lowest level since 1990, Bloomberg reported Wednesday.Saudi Arabia reportedly told OPEC that its output dropped another 651,000 b/d in April, extending total production losses since February to 42%.The decline marked Saudi Arabia's weakest production level since the Gulf War began after Iraq invaded Kuwait 36 years ago.The conflict involving Iran disrupted Persian Gulf shipments and sharply reduced exports from major producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq and the UAE.Saudi Arabia told OPEC that oil supplied to the market reached 6.879 million b/d, slightly above its reported crude production level.Secondary source estimates compiled by OPEC showed the group's total output fell by 1.73 million b/d in April to 18.98 mmb/d.The report said secondary estimates placed Saudi crude production at 6.77 mmb/d, slightly above figures submitted directly by Saudi Arabia.The decision followed disagreements with Saudi Arabia over production quotas and regional political issues, according to the report.OPEC rules will keep the UAE as a formal member until Jan. 1 despite the planned exit.Kuwait recorded the second-largest production decline in April as output fell by roughly half to 600,000 b/d, leaving production below one-quarter of prewar levels, according to the report.Saudi Arabia reduced some export losses by redirecting crude shipments through pipelines linked to the Red Sea, while the UAE also used alternative export routes.OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 1.2 million barrels per day from 1.4 million, while the International Energy Agency expects demand to shrink by 420,000 barrels per day this year.Saudi Arabia's Minister of Energy and OPEC didn't immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy41d ago

Strait of Hormuz Oil, LNG Flows Decline in Q1 2026; China Holds Largest Strategic Oil Inventories, EIA Says

Crude and petroleum product flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 14.6 million barrels per day in Q1, down from 20.7 mmb/d in Q4 2025 and 20.4 mmb/d in Q1 2025, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Global Energy Security data released Wednesday.On Wednesday, the EIA launched a new quarterly energy security dataset that includes information on global Strategic Petroleum Reserves and petroleum and liquefied natural gas flows through vital shipping chokepoints.Crude oil and condensate shipments through the Strait of Hormuz declined to 10.7 mmb/d in Q1 from 15.2 mmb/d in Q4 2025 and 14.3 mmb/d in Q1 2025, the data showed.Energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz have been constricted following the US-Israel joint campaign against Iran that started on Feb. 28.Petroleum product volumes through the Strait of Hormuz fell to 3.9 mmb/d, down from 5.5 mmb/d in the previous quarter and 6.1 mmb/d in the year-ago period.LNG flows through the Strait of Hormuz dropped to 7.3 billion cubic feet per day for the quarter, down from 10.1 Bcf/d in Q4 2025 and 11.7 Bcf/d in Q1 2025.Meanwhile, energy flows through the Red Sea's Bab el-Mandeb Strait, another vital shipping lane that has faced high security risks from Houthi attacks since late 2023, registered a slight rise.Flows through the Bab el-Mandeb edged higher on a quarterly basis to 5.4 mmb/d in Q1, up from 5.2 mmb/d in the prior quarter and 3.7 mmb/d in the year-ago period.Crude oil and condensate flows through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait increased to 3.2 mmb/d in Q1 from 3.1 mmb/d in Q4 2025 and 2 mmb/d in Q1 2025.Petroleum product shipments through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait totaled 2.2 mmb/d in Q1, while LNG flows reached 2.9 Bcf/d.Shippers have been opting for longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope since late 2023 to avoid unrest in the Bab el-Mandeb Strait. However, oil flows around the Cape declined in Q1 from the previous quarter.Total oil flows through the Cape of Good Hope fell to 8 mmb/d in Q1 from 9.6 mmb/d in Q4 2025 and 8.8 mmb/d in Q1 2025.Total oil flows through the Suez Canal and SUMED pipeline were 4.9 mmb/d for Q1, compared with 5.1 mmb/d in the previous quarter and 3.8 mmb/d in Q1 2025, according to the data.Meanwhile, the Strait of Malacca remained the world's busiest oil chokepoint in Q1, handling 20.9 mmb/d after reaching 24 mmb/d in Q4 2025.The EIA said world oil supply totaled 95.4 mmb/d in Q1 2026, down from 108.5 mmb/d in Q3 2025.The EIA said its strategic oil inventory estimates mainly include government-owned stocks and national oil company holdings, excluding most commercial storage.China held the largest strategic oil inventories at 1.541 billion barrels in Q1 2026, while the US held 413 million barrels.The EIA said Japan maintained strategic oil inventories at 263 mmbbls in both Q4 2025 and Q1 2026, while other OECD Europe held 132 mmbbls.Saudi Arabia raised strategic oil inventories to 88 mmbbls in Q1 from 82 mmbbls in Q4 2025, while France, India and Spain kept reserves unchanged at 33 mmbbls, 21 mmbbls and 12 mmbbls, respectively.The dataset covers the 10 largest reserve holders, representing about 70% of global totals, and includes estimates for China based on third-party and official data, the EIA said.

Oil & Energy41d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Slide as Markets Weigh US-Iran Impasse, Inventory Draw

Crude oil futures slipped in midday trading on Wednesday as markets weighed a prolonged US-Iran standoff against a larger-than-expected draw in US crude inventories and signs of tightening global supply conditions.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 0.89% to $101.28 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 1.69% to $105.97/bbl.US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 mmbbls in the week ended May 8, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. The agency said the stockpiles are now about 0.3% above the five-year average for this time of year.The ongoing Middle East conflict has roiled energy markets, as the continued closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted global flows of crude, fuels, and gas."Oil prices edged lower, as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to strain global energy markets despite no clear progress toward ending the Middle East conflict," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.The US Central Command said on Wednesday it has redirected 67 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.Kpler strategists said that three tankers carrying Iraqi crude and fuel oil are currently stalled off Oman after transiting the Strait of Hormuz via a corridor controlled by Iran.With the cargoes linked to Iraqi loading points already under US scrutiny, the case highlights how blockade enforcement is expanding beyond cargo origin to include routing, payments and documentation risk, the analytics firm said.Meanwhile, President Trump arrived in China on Wednesday after downplaying the attention the ongoing conflict would receive during his summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, according to media reports.China is reportedly the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite sanctions pressure from the Trump administration.Curbing the losses, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day.The IEA now expects oil demand to contract by 2.4 million barrels per day over the year in Q2 and by 420,000 b/d for the entire year, more than 1.3 million b/d from projections before the conflict.The agency said Saudi Arabia and the UAE have redirected some exports to ports that bypass Hormuz, as producers outside the Middle East, particularly the US, have ramped up exports to record highs in response to the conflict.Government and commercial stockpiles also helped mitigate the losses, the IEA said. However, the agency said oil inventories are depleting at a record pace due to mounting supply losses from the closure of the Strait.On the supply side, crude production among OPEC members fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the Middle East conflict in late February, the producer group said in its latest monthly update.OPEC production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March. The group said production among OPEC countries has dropped by over 30%, or 9.7 million b/d, during the conflict.

Oil & Energy42d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Edges Lower on US-Iran Conflict, Record Stockpile Draw

EMEA crude futures slipped in after-hours trading on Wednesday as the market weighed simmering geopolitical tensions in the Middle East against a record-breaking contraction in global inventories.Brent crude futures dropped by 1.56% to $106.09 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were down 0.80% to $105.15/bbl."Oil prices dipped after gaining around 8% over the previous three sessions as the global oil market continued to tighten amid limited prospects for a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz," Saxo Bank strategists said in a note on Wednesday.The International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day, as demand is now expected to contract by 2.4 million barrels per day over the year in Q2 and 420,000 b/d for the entire year, more than 1.3 million b/d projected before the conflict.The IEA said Saudi Arabia and the UAE have redirected some exports to ports that bypass Hormuz, as producers outside the Middle East, particularly the US, have ramped up exports to record highs in response to the conflict.Government and commercial stockpiles also helped mitigate the losses, the IEA said. However, the agency said oil inventories are depleting at a record pace due to mounting supply losses from the closure of the Strait.Meanwhile, crude production among OPEC members fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the Middle East conflict in late February, the producer group said in its latest monthly update.OPEC production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March. The group said production among OPEC countries has dropped more than 30%, or 9.7 million b/d, during the conflict.President Trump reportedly downplayed the attention the Middle East conflict would receive during his summit with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping, adding that Washington has Tehran very much under control.The effective closure of the Hormuz has significantly disrupted global supplies of crude, natural gas and fuels, stoking fears of reignited inflation."Oil prices edged lower, as ongoing disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz continued to strain global energy markets despite no clear progress toward ending the Middle East conflict," Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said.The US Central Command said on Wednesday it has redirected 67 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports. Three tankers carrying Iraqi crude and fuel oil are currently stalled off Oman after transiting the Strait of Hormuz via a corridor controlled by Iran, according to Kpler."With the cargoes linked to Iraqi loading points already under US scrutiny, the case highlights how blockade enforcement is expanding beyond cargo origin to include routing, payments and documentation risk," the analytics firm said.

Oil & Energy42d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Mixed as Tight Storage Keeps Market on Edge

European natural gas futures were flat to lower in after-hours trade on Wednesday, trimming gains from three consecutive sessions of gains as geopolitical uncertainty surrounding the Middle East remained unresolved.The front-month Dutch TTF contract edged up by 0.024% to 46.695 euros ($54.70) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract declined 0.889% to 113.78 British pence ($1.54) per therm.According to Trading Economics, European gas prices hovered near 46.6 euros/MWh after recent advances driven by concerns over prolonged supply disruption.The firm said US President Donald Trump's rejection of Iran's response to a US proposal aimed at ending the conflict has increased fears the 10-week war could persist, further threatening shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Expectations for a durable ceasefire have also weakened.While most LNG exports from the Persian Gulf are typically directed toward Asia, the disruption has tightened global supply balances and intensified competition for cargoes. This has raised concerns in Europe, which is working to rebuild storage ahead of the winter season.EU gas storage levels continue to lag year-ago levels. Data from Gas Infrastructure Europe showed inventories at 35.57% of capacity, compared with 43.10% a year earlier.ANZ analyst Daniel Hynes said Qatar has successfully routed two LNG tankers through the strait earlier this month by switching off transponders and has since instructed additional vessels near its main export facilities to do the same.Hynes added that Bloomberg ship-tracking data indicated at least nine tankers had stopped transmitting signals as of May 11. However, buyers remain cautious over supply availability, with a growing number entering the spot market for the first time in months.On the supply side, Norway's Hammerfest LNG export facility is currently offline following an operational issue and may require several days of repairs, according to Natural Gas Intelligence. The outage comes shortly after the operator began early production from the Eirin field intended to support Norwegian exports to Europe.Separately, the EU Agency for the Cooperation of Energy Regulators reported that the bloc imported a record 146 billion cubic meters of LNG in 2025, delivered via 1,850 cargoes, up from 112 Bcm in 2024 and 134 Bcm in 2023. The EU remains the world's largest LNG importer.The agency also warned that a full-year closure of the Strait of Hormuz in 2026 would materially tighten global supply, creating an estimated LNG shortfall of 27 Bcm versus 2025 and intensifying competition for spot cargoes.It added that demand-side adjustments would likely be required under such a scenario, including reduced consumption through fuel switching, behavioral changes, administrative restrictions, or price-driven demand destruction.However, it noted that conditions would improve if the Strait reopened mid-2026 and production from Qatar and the UAE returned to pre-disruption levels by July 1, potentially increasing global LNG supply by about 20 Bcm year on year.

Oil & Energy42d ago

Global Fuel Markets Tighten on Summer Demand, Middle East Risks, Kpler Says

Global refined product markets are tightening ahead of the summer driving season, with cracks supported by low inventories, Middle Eastern risks and resilient demand, even as uncertainty over the Strait of Hormuz persists, Kpler strategists said in a note on Wednesday.Kpler analysts said gasoline cracks have surged, particularly in the US, where benchmarks are now at their highest levels since 2022.West of Suez margins strengthened sharply as inventories fell and refinery economics shifted further toward gasoline production ahead of the summer driving season.Kpler said gasoline stocks fell by 2.5 million barrels week-on-week, reaching a five-month low and widening the deficit relative to the five-year average. PADD 3 inventories remain below seasonal norms amid elevated exports.Simultaneously, yields have stabilized around 46.5%, about four percentage points below seasonal averages, though production incentives are beginning to pivot toward gasoline maximization.Retail prices above $4.30 per gallon, more than $1 above the seasonal average, are weighing on consumers, but demand remains resilient on a four-week basis.With less than three weeks until Memorial Day, Kpler analysts said the market appears increasingly tight versus both year-ago levels and historical averages, supporting a bullish near-term outlook for US cracks.European gasoline cracks also posted strong gains, though export constraints are tempering upside momentum despite attractive transatlantic arbitrage signals.Meanwhile, in Asia, Singapore gasoline cracks remain elevated but are expected to moderate as supply improves. Planned increases in Chinese product exports and reduced Indonesian demand, alongside high West-to-East flows earlier in the year, are increasing regional cargo availability.Renewed speculation about improved transit conditions in the Strait of Hormuz has also weighed on sentiment, said Kpler.Naphtha cracks appear to have stabilized after recent volatility, with Kpler analysts seeing a new lower equilibrium amid ongoing Middle East tensions and tight inventories.West of Suez, Northwest European cracks have found support as blending demand rises seasonally and cracker margins remain incentivized to lift runs. Kpler said the propane-naphtha spread has widened sharply, encouraging fuel switching, while US exports have surged to record levels, supporting global balances.Rotterdam is set to import a US cargo in mid-May, the first since the onset of the Middle East conflict, highlighting intensifying competition between Europe and Asia for marginal barrels.In the East of Suez, cracks strengthened over the week as petrochemical run rates recovered. Japan's naphtha imports from the US are expected to reach record levels, while South Korea's government support measures and export adjustments have stabilized cracker operations above 60%.China has also lifted petrochemical run rates at several state-controlled crackers amid improving margins, potentially adding incremental demand for feedstock, though these integrated units rely largely on domestic supply.Kpler analysts said despite some short-term relief from sporadic Middle Eastern cargoes, structural tightness is expected to persist through May.However, Asian gasoil and jet markets are showing signs of normalization. The analysts said improved supply from Northeast Asia and China is pressuring prompt values, while higher regional runs and inventory drawdowns are contributing to weaker pricing momentum.South Korean jet exports remain constrained by government caps, and overall Asian jet values continue their downward adjustment.West of Suez distillates, in contrast, remain structurally tighter. European physical differentials have retraced sharply amid prompt selling and renewed optimism about potential developments in the Hormuz. However, Kpler analysts said that even in optimistic scenarios, Middle Eastern supply losses will persist for months, supporting medium-term strength.European stocks are expected to trend lower in the near term, with lighter crude slates further de-optimizing distillate yields. While short-term values have eased, the analysts said underlying deficits remain intact, setting up potential compression later in the quarter.

Oil & Energy42d ago

Macquarie Sees Strong Gasoline Outlook Despite Crude Market Volatility

Crude markets remain difficult to predict, while gasoline fundamentals appear stronger than diesel and jet fuel markets, Macquarie strategists said in a Tuesday note.The firm said headline-driven trading will likely continue dominating front-month crude prices as supply disruptions and geopolitical risks keep oil markets volatile.Gasoline has emerged as the strongest refined product market despite already elevated crack spreads for summer and calendar 2027 contracts.Reduced sour crude supply could lower production of catalytically cracked naphtha, also known as cat naphtha, during the summer driving season, further tightening gasoline supply, the note added.Macquarie said lower naphtha production could tighten aromatics supplies, forcing gasoline producers to compete with chemical companies for key blending materials.The firm noted gasoline demand has stayed strong despite higher fuel prices, though demand could weaken if US gasoline prices rise toward $5 or $6 per gallon.Lower energy use per unit of gross domestic product and increasingly consumer-focused economies have helped support fuel demand, Macquarie added.Diesel margins could still rise, although weaker fuel demand may help balance global diesel markets sooner than expected.The note said global diesel demand stands near 30 million barrels per day, including about 6 million b/d tied to personal transportation.Macquarie estimated refinery outages, lower refinery runs and Hormuz disruptions removed about 1.9 million b/d of diesel supply, supporting crack spreads and further rallies.The firm said diesel demand fell 15% in France and 6% in Spain, raising concerns that weaker consumption could spread globally and rebalance diesel markets before Hormuz reopens, pressuring crack spreads.A 10% decline in European diesel demand would reduce consumption by about 650,000 b/d, while the rest of the world would need to cut another 1.3 million b/d to fully rebalance markets.Weaker fuel demand from Asian road transport, construction equipment and petrochemicals may have already reduced part of that surplus, while middle distillate feedstock demand of 1 million b/d to 2 million b/d has also likely declined, the note added.Jet fuel markets are moving closer to balance despite limited demand destruction, with global demand at about 8 million b/d, compared with 28 million b/d for gasoline and 30 million b/d for diesel, the firm said.Crude supply disruptions could quickly tighten jet fuel availability because refiners produce most jet fuel early in the refining process, while airport and storage inventories remain limited.Refineries need only small production adjustments to rebalance jet fuel markets, even with refining runs reduced to 80 million b/d from the pre-war 85 million b/d level, the note said.Typical jet fuel yields stand near 10% but could rise to 12% or briefly 14%, with a shift to 12% on 80 million b/d boosting output to 9.6 million b/d, the firm added.Jet fuel demand has declined by only about 250,000 b/d despite supply issues, suggesting the market has moved closer to balance without significant demand destruction, the firm said.

Oil & Energy42d ago

TotalEnergies, EGAS Sign Egypt Offshore Exploration Agreement

TotalEnergies (TTE) and Egyptian Natural Gas signed an offshore exploration agreement covering a large area in northwestern Egypt, the companies said Wednesday.The memorandum of understanding creates a framework for technical cooperation, including preliminary exploration work and subsurface evaluation activities in the offshore region, according to the statement."We are pleased to launch this cooperation with EGAS, which reflects our shared ambition to further strengthen our partnership with the Arab Republic of Egypt," Nicola Mavilla, Senior Vice President at TotalEnergies said.He added that the partnership will support efforts to assess deep offshore exploration opportunities in Egypt.Price: $91.24, Change: $-0.52, Percent Change: -0.57%

$TTE

Oil & Energy42d ago

Market Chatter: Equinor Plans to Buy Crude From Costlier German Fields

Equinor (EQNR) is set to hold talks with major European energy consumers to gauge interest in supporting new projects to recover higher-cost oil and gas reserves, Bloomberg reported on Wednesday, citing industry sources.The Norwegian energy giant plans to sound out customers, including Germany, regarding the long-term financial commitments necessary to greenlight these developments.Government officials from Germany, the UK, Belgium, Poland, and the Netherlands are expected to attend a meeting in Oslo on May 18, hosted by gas pipeline operator Gassco, the report said.The discussions come as global energy markets remain volatile due to the ongoing Middle East conflict. Equinor is seeking ways to stabilize output as North Sea production is projected to decline over the next decade.Equinor did not immediately respond to' request for comment.Equinor's strategy includes a long-term goal to increase drilling in the Arctic, as Norway lobbies the European Union to soften its opposition to exploration in the region.The energy firm is among several firms that have drilled for decades in Norway's ice-free waters north of the Arctic Circle.The move to tap costlier wells comes as Norway has emerged as Germany's main supplier of natural gas, accounting for about half of total imports after replacing most of the cheaper pipeline deliveries from Russia, which ended in 2022.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $38.29, Change: $-0.23, Percent Change: -0.60%

$EQNR

Oil & Energy42d ago

DHL Express Inks 10-Year SAF Offtake Agreement With SAF One

Logistics provider DHL Express has signed a 10-year offtake agreement for the delivery of 250,000 metric tons of sustainable aviation fuel with Dubai-based SAF One, according to a joint statement on Tuesday.As per the agreement terms, DHL Express will receive 25,000 mt of unblended SAF per year from SAF One's Bahrain plant from the start of production, planned from 2028.This is the first offtake agreement in the Middle East for DHL Express, which aims to increase its use of SAF to 30% by 2030, the statement said.

Oil & Energy42d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Nearly 2% Amid Middle East Stalemate, Bullish Weather Forecasts

US natural gas futures rallied on Wednesday as Middle East supply constraints persisted, helping offset bearish domestic developments.Both the front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract rose 1.83% to $2.895 per million British thermal units.The conflict in the Middle East has reached a stalemate, with US President Donald Trump rejecting Iran's response to a US-backed ceasefire proposal earlier this week.Meanwhile, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi said on Tuesday that the country was developing a new set of rules to facilitate safe passage via the Strait of Hormuz, cementing its control over the strategically crucial waterway.This helped offset a prediction of higher US gas output with the US Energy Information Administration raising its 2026 natural gas production estimates to 110.61 billion cubic feet per day, from a projection of 109.60 bcf per day in April.LNG export feedgas demand, too, has dropped to 17.29 Bcf, compared to the 30-day moving average of 18.82 Bcf, according to the Bloomberg LNG Feedgas Model. This is primarily due to seasonal maintenance planned across several leading LNG export facilities.Weather forecasts, however, have turned bearish, with almost the whole of the country expected to see above-normal temperatures from May 20 to May 26, according to the National Weather Service. This is expected to kickstart air conditioning demand with temperatures across parts of the country set to top 90 degrees.

Showing 621-640 of 1154

Oil & Energy42d ago