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Traditional Vessel Route Checks Lose Value as Hormuz Shipping Patterns Shift, Kpler Says

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Only 6.4% of 895 vessel crossings through the Strait of Hormuz used the International Maritime Organization's designated shipping lane between March 1 and May 19, 2026, prompting a rethink of traditional compliance assessments, Kpler strategists said in a note on Friday.

Kpler tracked 58 vessels using the Traffic Separation Scheme, while 53.0% transited through Iran's alternative corridor and 40.6% followed dark or unknown routes with Automatic Identification System signals switched off, making route deviations the new operating norm rather than an exception.

The firm said the TSS now serves as a benchmark for identifying routing anomalies rather than expected vessel behavior, because compliance teams must assess deviation patterns alongside other vessel risk indicators rather than in isolation.

Route selection showed little distinction between vessel risk categories, with only 2.6% of sanctioned vessels, 5.6% of shadow fleet vessels and 9.8% of lower-risk commercial ships using the International Maritime Organization's TSS routing mechanism.

Kpler tracked 622 unique vessels during the period and found 365, or 58.7%, were at least 20 years old. Average vessel age reached 24.3 years for shadow fleet ships, 22.2 years for sanctioned vessels and 19.1 years for non-sanctioned commercial vessels.

The analysis also showed 55.5% of vessels operated without International Group Protection and Indemnity cover.

Additionally, 48.1% lacked International Association of Classification Societies classification and 27.3% had no identifiable International Safety Management manager information, indicating weaker transparency across much of the transit fleet.

Kpler identified 309 sanctioned vessel crossings and 177 shadow fleet crossings, with Iranian-flagged ships accounting for 18.6% of observed traffic.

Bulk carriers and crude tankers dominated transits, while 75 of 124 crude tanker crossings involved sanctioned vessels.

Kpler said route choice alone no longer provides a reliable measure of vessel risk. Instead, compliance teams should combine routing data with Automatic Identification System behavior, Global Navigation Satellite System disruption and vessel characteristics.

The firm said vessel age, flag, insurance, classification, ISM manager status and ownership have become more important because sanctioned, shadow fleet and legitimate commercial vessels now follow similar routes.

Compliance teams should weigh multiple risk signals, including vessel proximity to higher-risk ships, because the Global Navigation Satellite System disruption affected up to 3,000 vessels in a single day during the crisis.

Kpler said most ships now deviate from TSS in the Strait of Hormuz, making it a normal practice. If questioned later, the focus will be on whether the route change was properly justified, not simply that it occurred.

Companies should document routing decisions, threat assessments, and compliance reviews as they happen. Strong records help demonstrate that any deviations were reasonable and based on safety and operational risks, Kpler added.

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