Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Friday, as steady tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, even as traders kept a close watch on geopolitical risks in the region.
Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 3.5% to $69.46 per barrel, while Brent futures edged lower 4.2% to $72.09/bbl.
Claire Jungman, director of Maritime Risk & Intelligence at Vortexa, said the US-Iran interim agreement has restored existing Gulf flows rather than created new ones. Volumes are recovering, particularly in crude, but the routes, buyers and vessel patterns still look broadly familiar, Jungman said.
On Friday, the US attacked Iran one day after Tehran struck a commercial vessel off the Omani coast.
US Central Command said that American aircraft on Friday hit Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, calling it a "powerful response to yesterday's attack."
President Donald Trump then said on Friday that Iran had violated the ceasefire with drone attacks on the Strait of Hormuz.
"Damage was done, but the ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other drones. obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement," he said in a Truth Social post.
Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude remained on track for a weekly decline as increasing flows via the Hormuz continued to ease supply concerns following an attack on a commercial cargo vessel near Oman.
Meanwhile, two key exit routes through the Strait have reportedly emerged, as the usual middle route is believed to have been mined.
However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned vessels that any new transit route via the Hormuz established without coordination with Tehran is "unacceptable and dangerous."
Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority also said on Thursday that any transit happening in routes outside its framework would not be protected by "safe-passage guarantees."
Commercial vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased after the US-Iran agreement, with the latest data shipping data from Kpler showing 54 verified crossings across a broad mix of commercial and energy-linked vessels on June 25.
On Friday, Kpler said that the QatarEnergy-chartered Umm Slal has become the latest LNG tanker to reverse course near the strategic waterway, following a similar move by Gaslog Shanghai on June 25.
"The reversals coincided with warnings from Iran's IRGC that vessels must avoid unauthorized routes and use only corridors designated by Tehran," Kpler said.
ING strategists said the market is largely focused on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, which is continuing to increase.
On the supply front, the total crude oil, natural gas, and miscellaneous rigs count rose by 10 in the week to June 26, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. The US oil rig count rose by seven from 433 the previous week to 440, while the number of gas rigs increased by three from 122 the previous week to 125, the data showed.
Baker Hughes said this week's increase puts the consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, at 770, up 21 rigs from the previous week.
OPEC is facing mounting internal pressure after the UAE's recent exit, with Iraq reportedly pressing the cartel to significantly raise its oil production quota as it considers exiting the group.
ING analysts said that Iraq is the second-largest producer within OPEC, pumping over 4 million b/d ahead of the Iran conflict, but less than 1.5 million b/d in recent months due to the closure of the Hormuz.