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Hormuz Demining Faces Complex Hurdles Despite, Chatham House Says

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The demining of the Strait of Hormuz will be a slow and technically complex operation requiring international coordination, even as renewed shipping via the waterway signals tentative progress following a US-Iran interim peace deal, Chatham House strategists said on Friday.

Chatham House analysts projected that 80 naval mines are thought to have been laid in or near the Hormuz, though Tehran has not confirmed numbers or locations.

The mines are designed to resist detection by distorting sonar signals, complicating clearance efforts.

Nitya Labh, Schwarzman Academy Fellow, said before the recent Middle East conflict, Iran was estimated to hold 5,000-6,000 sea mines and retains much of its small boat and minelaying capability, though independent verification is limited.

Labh said that four suspected minefield zones are believed to lie around key traffic lanes at the western entrance, the central transit corridor, and the eastern approaches toward the Gulf of Oman.

Shipping via the Strait has resumed but remains far below normal levels, with vessels now funneled into narrow northern and southern routes hugging Iranian and Omani waters.

Chatham House projected that daily transits have fallen to about 25 vessels, compared with a pre-crisis average of about 125, leaving hundreds of ships still stranded in the Persian Gulf.

The disruption has been compounded by ships switching off AIS tracking systems to avoid detection, as well as widespread GPS jamming in the region, which has increased collision risks in already-constrained waters.

Mine clearance is further complicated by overlapping security risks and competing claims over safe passage, Chatham House said.

Iran has reportedly warned that only vessels using designated routes will be guaranteed protection, while maritime safety operations have been affected by security incidents in the wider Gulf.

Responsibility for demining remains a sensitive issue. Chatham House said that a US-Iran memorandum of understanding reportedly places initial responsibility on Tehran to begin clearance within 30 days.

However, while Iran possesses mine warfare capabilities, Chatham House analysts said Tehran is optimized for laying mines rather than removing them and may lack the trust or technical capacity to conduct operations alone.

Western navies, including the US and European partners, are expected to play a central role.

The US has specialized unmanned systems and mine countermeasure assets but limited regional capacity, while Nato allies, including Britain, France, Germany, the Netherlands, and Italy, could contribute specialist vessels and drones under a multinational framework.

Chatham House said that reopening the Strait will ultimately depend less on technical clearance than on sustained political de-escalation. Mine removal operations require predictable, secure conditions, with assurances that vessels will not be targeted during clearance.

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