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EMEA Oil Update: Crude Plunges as Hormuz Traffic Eases Supply Fears

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EMEA crude futures tumbled in after-hours trading on Friday as fears of supply disruption eased, with shipping data showing vessels continuing to transit the Strait of Hormuz despite a recent attack on a cargo ship off the Omani coast.

Brent crude futures retreated by 4.4% to $71.92 per barrel, while Murban crude futures were down 4.3% to $66.12/bbl.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude remained on track for a weekly decline as increasing flows via the Hormuz continued to ease supply concerns following an attack on a commercial cargo vessel near Oman.

President Trump on Friday alleged that Iran had violated the ceasefire agreement by firing at cargo ships transiting the Strait, saying at least four one-way attack drones targeted ships in the waterway and one of them hit the upper deck of a large cargo ship.

"Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social.

On Thursday, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations reported that a vessel had been struck by an unknown projectile in the Strait of Hormuz off the coast of Oman, prompting the International Maritime Organization to suspend its evacuation operations.

Meanwhile, two key exit routes through the Strait have reportedly emerged, as the usual middle route is believed to have been mined.

However, Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority said on Thursday that any transit happening in routes outside its framework would not be protected by "safe-passage guarantees."

Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard also warned vessels that any new transit route via the Hormuz established without coordination with Tehran is "unacceptable and dangerous".

The latest shipping data shows that more commercial vessels are transiting the strategic waterway with their satellite signals switched on, with Kpler reporting 54 verified crossings across a broad mix of commercial and energy-linked vessels on June 24.

MarineTraffic said that data showed 39 west-to-east movements and 15 east-to-west movements, with vessels using the Omani, IMO and Iranian routes, alongside a smaller dark or unknown route category.

ING strategists said the market is largely focused on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, which is continuing to increase.

On the supply front, Saudi Arabia has begun loading tankers at its key Ras Tanura terminal in the Persian Gulf as Gulf producers ramp up output, according to media reports.

Kim said Gulf producers, including the UAE, Kuwait, Qatar, and Iraq, are ramping up production and exports, helping to restore regional supply.

OPEC is facing mounting internal pressure after the UAE's recent exit, with Iraq reportedly pressing the cartel to significantly raise its oil production quota as it considers exiting the group.

ING analysts said that Iraq is the second-largest producer within OPEC, pumping over 4 million b/d ahead of the Iran conflict, but less than 1.5 million b/d in recent months due to the closure of the Hormuz.

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