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Crude Benchmarks Slide for 3rd Straight Week Despite Escalating Strait of Hormuz Tensions

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Global oil benchmarks retreated to pre-war levels this week, as expectations of recovering and regional export restarts countered a 6.1-million-barrel US crude inventory draw and renewed geopolitical tensions late in the week.

West Texas Intermediate settled at $70.24/bbl from $77.54/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $73.15/bbl from $80.38/bbl a week earlier.

Brent fell 9.27% on a weekly basis to settle near pre-war levels, while WTI dropped almost 10% so far this week.

Both contracts logged their third straight week of losses.

Market resilience was tested on Friday following a maritime security incident in which the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a suspected drone projectile off the coast of Oman.

The attack followed explicit warnings from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that non-coordinated transit routes would be treated as hostile.

While the event prompted a brief price rebound and caused the International Maritime Organization to temporarily pause its voluntary evacuation operations to reassess safety guarantees, commercial energy flows ultimately shrugged off the friction.

On Friday, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's alleged drone attack on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz was a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire agreement after saying Tehran launched at least four one-way attack drones.

The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four one-way attack drones at ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, adding that a drone had struck a cargo vessel.

"One of the drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive cargo carrying ship," Trump said, adding, "Damage was done, but the ship was able to proceed on its way."

"Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement," Trump said.

Later on Friday, the US Central Command struck Iranian military targets.

Centcom said in a post on X that US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in what it described as "a powerful response to yesterday's attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz."

Iran's IRGC reportedly said that the US attack will not go unanswered.

Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco reportedly resumed crude oil loadings at its giant Ras Tanura export terminal, marking Aramco's return to Persian Gulf exports after a four-month suspension.

The US Treasury's implementation of General License X, a 60-day waiver permitting the production, sale, and US dollar-denominated settlement of Iranian crude, acted as a significant tailwind for supply relief, unwinding a large backlog of stranded vessels in the Persian Gulf and boosting active crossings past 90 vessels over the weekend.

Despite a mid-week bullish draw of 6.1 million barrels in US commercial crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration, the broader oil complex remained heavily pressured by product-side weakness and macro demand concerns, analysts said.

Rystad Energy estimated that shut-in production across the Gulf region dropped sharply to 9.6 million barrels per day, down from 11.7 million b/d just three weeks prior.

Meanwhile, the US oil rig count rose by seven from 433 the previous week to 440 in the week ending June 26, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 432 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.

The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 21 to 770 from 749 the previous week.

Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended June 23, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.

The data showed that money managers reported 207,881 long positions, down 12,899 from June 16, while short positions were up 4,691 to 107,586. In the physical market, producers, merchants, processors, and users held 696,363 long positions and 305,438 short positions.

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