FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Edges Up Following Weekend US-Iran Strikes

By

Brent crude futures edged up on Monday after a series of attacks over the weekend threatened the fragile US-Iran peace MOU and supply through the Strait of Hormuz, ahead of upcoming peace talks in Doha.

The Brent futures contract edged up 0.9% at $72.62 per barrel. Murban futures closed at its lowest since February at $66.54/bbl on June 26 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.

Last week, both contracts logged their third straight week of losses as market sentiment remains highly sensitive to geopolitical friction in the Middle East.

"The US and Iran have again agreed to halt attacks, after several days of fighting that threatened the fragile ceasefire," SEB analysts said.

"Peace talks will resume in Doha during the week. However, the market is mainly focused on ships continuing to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, and Brent oil is trading around $72 per barrel," they added.

US Central Command said over the weekend that it launched airstrikes against Iranian military targets following an Iranian attack on a commercial vessel transiting the critical Strait of Hormuz choke point.

According to analysts at Saxo Bank, the fragile ceasefire has allowed maritime traffic to resume normal transit through the Strait of Hormuz.

"Early gains faded after the two sides agreed to halt attacks, allowing vessels to move freely ahead of peace talks set to resume later this week," the analysts said.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Crude Benchmarks Slide for 3rd Straight Week Despite Escalating Strait of Hormuz Tensions

Global oil benchmarks retreated to pre-war levels this week, as expectations of recovering and regional export restarts countered a 6.1-million-barrel US crude inventory draw and renewed geopolitical tensions late in the week.West Texas Intermediate settled at $70.24/bbl from $77.54/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $73.15/bbl from $80.38/bbl a week earlier.Brent fell 9.27% on a weekly basis to settle near pre-war levels, while WTI dropped almost 10% so far this week.Both contracts logged their third straight week of losses.Market resilience was tested on Friday following a maritime security incident in which the Singapore-flagged container ship Ever Lovely was struck by a suspected drone projectile off the coast of Oman.The attack followed explicit warnings from Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps that non-coordinated transit routes would be treated as hostile.While the event prompted a brief price rebound and caused the International Maritime Organization to temporarily pause its voluntary evacuation operations to reassess safety guarantees, commercial energy flows ultimately shrugged off the friction.On Friday, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that Iran's alleged drone attack on ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz was a "foolish violation" of the ceasefire agreement after saying Tehran launched at least four one-way attack drones.The Islamic Republic of Iran shot at least four one-way attack drones at ships traversing the Strait of Hormuz, Trump said, adding that a drone had struck a cargo vessel."One of the drones solidly hit the upper deck of a large and very expensive cargo carrying ship," Trump said, adding, "Damage was done, but the ship was able to proceed on its way.""Obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement," Trump said.Later on Friday, the US Central Command struck Iranian military targets.Centcom said in a post on X that US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in what it described as "a powerful response to yesterday's attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz."Iran's IRGC reportedly said that the US attack will not go unanswered.Meanwhile, Saudi Aramco reportedly resumed crude oil loadings at its giant Ras Tanura export terminal, marking Aramco's return to Persian Gulf exports after a four-month suspension.The US Treasury's implementation of General License X, a 60-day waiver permitting the production, sale, and US dollar-denominated settlement of Iranian crude, acted as a significant tailwind for supply relief, unwinding a large backlog of stranded vessels in the Persian Gulf and boosting active crossings past 90 vessels over the weekend.Despite a mid-week bullish draw of 6.1 million barrels in US commercial crude inventories reported by the Energy Information Administration, the broader oil complex remained heavily pressured by product-side weakness and macro demand concerns, analysts said.Rystad Energy estimated that shut-in production across the Gulf region dropped sharply to 9.6 million barrels per day, down from 11.7 million b/d just three weeks prior.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count rose by seven from 433 the previous week to 440 in the week ending June 26, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 432 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 21 to 770 from 749 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended June 23, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers reported 207,881 long positions, down 12,899 from June 16, while short positions were up 4,691 to 107,586. In the physical market, producers, merchants, processors, and users held 696,363 long positions and 305,438 short positions.

$BKR
Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Lower as More Tankers Transit Hormuz, Easing Supply Fears

Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Friday, as steady tanker traffic through the Strait of Hormuz eased immediate concerns over supply disruptions, even as traders kept a close watch on geopolitical risks in the region.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 3.5% to $69.46 per barrel, while Brent futures edged lower 4.2% to $72.09/bbl.Claire Jungman, director of Maritime Risk & Intelligence at Vortexa, said the US-Iran interim agreement has restored existing Gulf flows rather than created new ones. Volumes are recovering, particularly in crude, but the routes, buyers and vessel patterns still look broadly familiar, Jungman said.On Friday, the US attacked Iran one day after Tehran struck a commercial vessel off the Omani coast.US Central Command said that American aircraft on Friday hit Iranian missile and drone storage sites as well as coastal radar installations, calling it a "powerful response to yesterday's attack."President Donald Trump then said on Friday that Iran had violated the ceasefire with drone attacks on the Strait of Hormuz."Damage was done, but the ship was able to proceed on its way. We knocked down three other drones. obviously, this is a foolish violation of our ceasefire agreement," he said in a Truth Social post.Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said crude remained on track for a weekly decline as increasing flows via the Hormuz continued to ease supply concerns following an attack on a commercial cargo vessel near Oman.Meanwhile, two key exit routes through the Strait have reportedly emerged, as the usual middle route is believed to have been mined.However, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard warned vessels that any new transit route via the Hormuz established without coordination with Tehran is "unacceptable and dangerous."Iran's Persian Gulf Strait Authority also said on Thursday that any transit happening in routes outside its framework would not be protected by "safe-passage guarantees."Commercial vessel traffic via the Hormuz has increased after the US-Iran agreement, with the latest data shipping data from Kpler showing 54 verified crossings across a broad mix of commercial and energy-linked vessels on June 25.On Friday, Kpler said that the QatarEnergy-chartered Umm Slal has become the latest LNG tanker to reverse course near the strategic waterway, following a similar move by Gaslog Shanghai on June 25."The reversals coincided with warnings from Iran's IRGC that vessels must avoid unauthorized routes and use only corridors designated by Tehran," Kpler said.ING strategists said the market is largely focused on the resumption of oil flows through the Strait, which is continuing to increase.On the supply front, the total crude oil, natural gas, and miscellaneous rigs count rose by 10 in the week to June 26, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. The US oil rig count rose by seven from 433 the previous week to 440, while the number of gas rigs increased by three from 122 the previous week to 125, the data showed.Baker Hughes said this week's increase puts the consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, at 770, up 21 rigs from the previous week.OPEC is facing mounting internal pressure after the UAE's recent exit, with Iraq reportedly pressing the cartel to significantly raise its oil production quota as it considers exiting the group.ING analysts said that Iraq is the second-largest producer within OPEC, pumping over 4 million b/d ahead of the Iran conflict, but less than 1.5 million b/d in recent months due to the closure of the Hormuz.

$BKR
Oil & Energy

US Launches 'Powerful Response' After Iran Attacks Strait of Hormuz Commercial Ship

US Central Command said Friday that it struck Iranian military targets in response to Iran's attack on a commercial vessel transiting the Strait of Hormuz.Centcom said in a post on X that US aircraft struck Iranian missile and drone storage locations and coastal radar sites in what it described as "a powerful response to yesterday's attack on a commercial ship that was transiting the Strait of Hormuz."Iran struck the Singapore-flagged M/V Ever Lovely with a one-way attack drone on Thursday while the cargo ship was leaving the Strait of Hormuz along the Omani coast, the command said."The unwarranted aggression against commercial shipping by Iranian forces clearly violated the ceasefire. Furthermore, Iran's dangerous behavior undermined freedom of navigation as commerce increasingly flows through the vital international trade corridor," Centcom said.Centcom added that US forces continue to coordinate safe passage and support commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz."The US military remains present and vigilant to ensure all aspects of the agreement with Iran are adhered to, obeyed, and in full force and effect," Centcom said.