Mining & Metals
TSX Closer: The Index Falls From a Record Close Ahead of Canada's Banks Earnings Season
The resources-heavy Toronto Stock Exchange closed lower on Tuesday, falling off the record high set a day earlier on some profit taking and weaker commodity prices, while nagging economic concerns continue to weigh, with Canada's big banks facing rising insolvencies amid a weak housing market and National Bank saying Ottawa's trade-diversification target has a scale problem.The S&P/TSX Composite Index fell 177.02 points, or 0.5%, to 34,653.87. Most sectors were higher, led by the Battery Metals Index, up 5.5%, and Base Metals, up 2%, despite a lower gold price. Decliners were led by Info Tech, down 1.6%, and Health Care, down 1.3%.Financials was also down 0.5% ahead of the start of bank earnings season on Wednesday.Profits at Canada's largest banks are expected to have increased despite trade tensions, the Middle East conflict and broader economic uncertainty, but now face tougher tests as more consumers struggle to pay debts and a subdued housing market weighs on their core domestic business, according to a Reuters preview.The big banks; Royal Bank of Canada (RY.TO), Toronto-Dominion Bank (TD.TO), Bank of Montreal (BMO.TO), Bank of Nova Scotia (BNS.TO), Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce (CM.TO) and National Bank of Canada (NA.TO), which together control more than 90% of the market, are expected to report strong second-quarter earnings starting on Wednesday, helped by trading revenue and their capital markets businesses, Reuters said."Banks have been beating expectations consistently for the past two years, With credit losses stubbornly elevated and margin expansion potentially stalling this quarter, the onus falls on the capital markets business to deliver, yet again," National Bank analyst Gabriel Dechaine is cited as saying.On the economy, National Bank said Statistics Canada's 2025 goods exporter data underscore the scale problem embedded in Ottawa's ambition to double non-U.S. exports within the next decade. The bank cited a chart that shows Canada counts nearly 48,000 goods exporting enterprises, but 82% of them employ fewer than 50 workers despite accounting for only 14.3% of total goods exports, while firms with 500 or more employees represent a tiny fraction of exporters but close to 60% of export value."This is not a marginal complication. Diversification is not simply a matter of redirecting shipments away from the U.S. market; it requires financing, compliance capacity, distribution networks, foreign-market intelligence, currency-risk management and the ability to withstand a long sales cycle before new relationships become profitable," National Bank said."For smaller firms, the constraint is structural because many are embedded in North American supply chains built around proximity, recurring customer relationships, integrated logistics and production specifications that are not easily replicated overseas."National Bank added: "The irony is that Ottawa's target may be easier to meet in aggregate than in substance. Canada can raise non-U.S. export values through commodities and other scale-intensive sectors where global demand is deep and output is more readily redirected across markets. But that path does less for the employment-intensive parts of the export base, where supply-chain links are stickier and diversification costs are proportionally higher. The result is a policy tension that could be masked by headline GDP. A resource-led export pivot may improve the arithmetic of diversification while smaller exporters face higher costs, thinner margins and greater risk of lost capacity. If building scale is part of the desired outcome, then trade policy cannot be separated from the domestic incentives that shape firm size, including the small-business tax kink highlighted in our MCIA/RBI work."Of commodities, gold edged lower by midafternoon Tuesday even as the dollar and yields fell as fresh U.S. strikes on Iran heightened concerns over the progress of peace talks between the two countries. Gold for July delivery was down US$16.90 to US$4,539.50 per ounce.Also, West Texas Intermediate crude oil closed lower on uncertainty around geopolitical tensions across the Middle East. WTI crude oil for July delivery closed down US$2.71 to settle at US$93.89 per barrel, while July Brent oil was last seen up US$3.40 to US$99.54.
S&P/TSX CompositeS&P/TSX Composite$BMO.TO$BNS.TO$CM.TO$NA.TO$RY.TO$TD.TO