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South Africa's Regulator Cuts Smelter Power Tariffs by 54%

South Africa's intensive energy users received a major lifeline after the National Energy Regulator of South Africa approved a deeply discounted electricity tariff for the domestic ferrochrome industry.The approved rate slashes power tariffs by roughly 54% to 62 cents per kilowatt-hour.The decision has prompted the Glencore-Merafe Chrome Venture to withdraw its Section 189 retrenchment consultations, effectively saving up to 1,500 jobs that had been at risk since the joint venture initiated restructuring proceedings in September 2025.South African smelters, which rely on immense baseload power to process chrome into ferrochrome for global steel production, have seen electricity costs skyrocket tenfold since 2008.This, alongside aggressive competition from Chinese producers, decimated local supply-side capacity, leaving only 11 of the country's 66 smelters operational.The structural unviability forced Merafe Resources to suspend production at its Boshoek, Wonderkop, and Lion smelters in May 2025.While NERSA's sweeping regulatory approval extends to the entire South African ferrochrome sector following joint negotiations by top producers Merafe and Samancor Chrome, the commercial rollout remains subject to power grid realities.Glencore-Merafe noted that it is still in ongoing discussions with state utility Eskom Holdings to finalize the specific terms and conditions of a negotiated price agreement.

Oil & Energy69d ago

Brazil's Petrobras Drops Diesel Distributor Prices

State-backed Petrobras (PBR) confirmed on Sunday a drop in its distributor diesel prices to 3.30 Brazilian reais ($0.65) per liter, effective June 1, from 3.65 reais.The wider policy framework is currently undergoing corporate evaluation by Petrobras' board to secure domestic supply and cap domestic volatility fueled by Middle East geopolitical disruptions.The company maintains that its ongoing commercial strategy aims to maximize local refining margins without directly transferring international crude oil volatility to the domestic market.

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Oil & Energy69d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise After Fresh US Strikes Against Iran Cast Doubt on Peace Deal

European natural gas futures were up on Monday, rebounding after a sharp decline over the past week, as US forces escalated their offensive against Iran, casting fresh uncertainty over a potential peace deal.The Dutch TTF front-month contract was up 4.89% at 48.250 euros ($56.25) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract rose 5.88% to 117.300 pence ($1.58) per therm.On Monday, US Centcom said that it had conducted "self-defense strikes" against Iranian radar, command and control sites for drones, located across the Goruk and Qeshm Islands.This comes despite US President Donald Trump's claims that Tehran "really wants to make a deal" in a Truth Social post over the week, noting that the outcome would also be good for the US.Meanwhile, the strategically crucial Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the 14th week running, with just 20 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.While this marks an uptick in traffic relative to recent days, when it was stuck in the low-to-mid single digits, it is still significantly below the Strait's typical daily average of 138 during normal times.Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, noted that Indian and Southeast Asian buyers were increasingly tapping the spot markets, to address growing energy needs during the Summer.This puts European markets in a tough spot, with gas inventories, at 40.09% of capacity, still below the prior year's 47.89%, according to data from Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 54.1%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.This comes at a time when much of the continent is experiencing an unprecedented heatwave, with the continent "currently warming at roughly twice the global average rate," according to a report by Severe-Weather EU, leading to increased air conditioning demand.

Oil & Energy69d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Rebounds Following US-Iran Military Escalation

Brent futures gained on Monday, reversing a six-week low as US-Iran hostilities renewed threatening ceasefire talks.Brent futures contract climbed over 3% to $93.94 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $90.05 on May 29 and were not trading by the time of publication of this oil price update.The price rebound was triggered by a rapid escalation of military tensions in Middle East over the weekend, analysts said.The US Central Command confirmed in a post on X that it conducted self-defense strikes against Iranian radar and drone control sites on Goruk and Qeshm Island, following the shootdown of a US MQ-1 drone over international waters.In response, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps reportedly said on Monday that it targeted an airbase linked to a US attack on a Sirik Island telecoms tower.These clashes have cast a shadow over diplomatic efforts.Although US President Donald Trump stated on Friday that he would soon decide on a preliminary deal to extend an early-April ceasefire, analysts remain skeptical.ANZ analysts said that doubts persist over Iran's willingness to accept the new US proposal, and Iran's Foreign Ministry Abbas Araghchi confirmed that no final understanding has been reached.Compounding the geopolitical premium, global oil supplies remain severely constrained.The critical Strait of Hormuz remains closed, disrupting over 15 million barrels per day of world oil supply.While a growing number of vessels have attempted the risky transit in recent weeks, several recent attacks have underscored the persistent dangers to shipowners and crews, ANZ noted.

Oil & Energy71d ago

Crude Posts 2nd Weekly Decline as US-Iran Deal Hopes Fuel Volatile Trade

Crude oil benchmarks posted their second weekly loss in a row on Friday, amid conflicting signals over a potential peace deal framework between the US and Iran.West Texas Intermediate settled at $87.76 per barrel, down from $97/bbl the previous week, while Brent closed at $91.99/bbl, down from $101.14/bbl a week earlier.Brent futures were headed for a weekly loss of over 11%, while West Texas Intermediate futures dropped by over 9%.Saxo Bank strategists said oil fell to a five-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, with Brent heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2020.The week was marked by shifting headlines that drove sharp intraday volatility in the paper market, while underlying physical oil fundamentals limited downside.Mid-week optimism, sparked by reports of a draft peace agreement in Iranian state media, briefly triggered a sell-off on Wednesday before reversing as the conflict escalated into active warfare.Following President Donald Trump's dismissal of the peace rumors, the US military launched pre-dawn strikes against an Iranian drone base near Bandar Abbas airport.In retaliation, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps executed a counterstrike on Thursday, targeting a regional US airbase with missiles.By late week, sentiment shifted again as US and Iranian negotiators reportedly closed in on a tentative memorandum of understanding.This unsigned draft agreement aims to establish a 60-day ceasefire extension and guarantee unrestricted, toll-free passage for commercial oil tankers through the strategic Strait of Hormuz, analysts said.However, ING analysts noted that the framework lacks official verification from Tehran and remains entirely dependent on a formal sign-off from Trump, who earlier in the week rejected a rumored peace deal as a "complete fabrication."On Friday, Trump said the retaliatory US naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman will be lifted, noting that vessels previously affected by the blockade could now return home."Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of 'heading home!'," Trump said in a Truth Social post on Friday.He added that Iran must permanently forgo nuclear weapons and allow unrestricted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for him to approve a deal to end the ongoing conflict."The Strait of Hormuz must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic in both directions," Trump said.Security risks in the Strait of Hormuz remained elevated.The US Naval Forces Central Command on Friday kept the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz at "critical," warning that ongoing military activity could increase risks for commercial vessels operating in the area."Military operations will be conducted within the area north of the Musandam Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom said in an advisory published by the Joint Maritime Information Center.It described Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait as "dangerous" and "illegal."The advisory also alleged that Iran continues to place mines in the Strait, hindering safe passage."Iran continues to impede mine clearance and safe transit through the Strait of Hormuz," the advisory said.Trump, in his earlier post, said that any mines placed in the Strait would be removed."All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!)," Trump posted.On the supply side, the US Energy Information Administration, in its weekly crude inventory report, confirmed that commercial crude oil stockpiles drew down by 3.3 million barrels to 441.7 million barrels for the week ended May 22.Experts said that this tightening of physical supply indicates downstream refinery demand and robust exports, keeping physical barrels scarce for prompt availability even as geopolitical risk premiums fluctuated.Energy institutions warned, however, that a political signature will not instantly resolve global supply constraints.International Energy Agency Chief Fatih Birol stated that current oil and gas disruptions have officially surpassed the scale of past crises.The targeted attacks have damaged over 80 regional energy facilities, including major oil fields, gas sites, and refineries, with more than one-third suffering severe structural damage, meaning that restoring disrupted supply systems will take considerable time even if the situation improves.International agencies issued a joint statement on Friday saying that global oil inventories are being drawn down at a "record pace" as disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue to remove significant supply from the market.The heads of the IEA, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization met on May 28 to coordinate their response to the energy and economic fallout from the Middle East conflict and assess risks facing global markets."If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience," according to the joint statement released Friday.Meanwhile, the US oil rig count rose by four from 425 the previous week to 429 in the week ending May 29, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 451 oil rigs in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 28 to 728 from 696 the previous week.Money managers in the WTI crude futures and options markets maintained their net long positions in the week ended May 22, according to the Commodity Futures Trading Commission's latest Commitments of Traders report released on Friday.The data showed that money managers held 202,764 long positions, down 13,650 from May 19, while short positions rose 9,362 to 87,002.

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Oil & Energy71d ago

US Natural Gas Posts 3rd Weekly Gain on Tighter Storage, Strong Demand Outlook

US natural gas markets advanced over the week, supported by a tighter-than-expected storage injection, rising electricity demand and forecasts calling for warmer weather across much of the country.The Nymex front-month July contract rose to $3.27 per million British thermal units from $2.92/MMBtu on May 22.The front-month June contract price dropped to $3.095/MMBtu from $3.155/MMBtu on May 20, according to the US Energy Information Administration's Weekly Gas Storage Supplement, released on Thursday.Natural gas spot prices dropped by $0.04/MMBtu to $3.15/MMBtu during the week ended May 27, according to the EIA, from $3.19/MMBtu the prior week.This comes amid a 1.2-billion-cubic-feet-per-day, or 2% increase in total US natural gas consumption during the week, led by a 1.9 Bcf/d, or 6%, rise in demand from the electric power sector due to a short-lived heatwave last week, which boosted air-conditioning demand.Broader consumption trends remain firm. Estimated US gas use in March 2026 reached 2,779 Bcf, or 89.6 Bcf/d, up 1% from a year earlier, the EIA said in its latest Natural Gas Monthly report. The electric power sector led gains, increasing gas demand by 10.6% to 29.6 Bcf/d.At the same time, natural gas supplies rose slightly by 0.2 Bcf/d, or less than 1%, due to incremental growth in dry natural gas production, according to data from LSEG.Preliminary EIA figures show dry gas output still expanding on an over-the-year basis, rising for a 12th straight month in March to 110.9 Bcf/d, up 3.3% from a year earlier.The EIA reported that the US exported 3.7 times as much natural gas as it imported in March. Imports fell 9.1% to 7.7 Bcf/d, while exports jumped 18.3% to a record 28.7 Bcf/d.Meanwhile, LNG feedgas flows recovered after hitting their lowest level in 16 weeks last Tuesday, at 15.1 Bcf, to average 17.5 Bcf/d, according to NRG Energy, as major LNG facilities shut down for spring maintenance started coming back online.Prices were mixed across regional hubs, ranging from a $0.16/MMBtu decrease in Transco Zone 3 to a $2.62/MMBtu increase at the Waha Hub in West Texas.At the Florida Gas Zone 3, prices rose $0.13/MMBtu to $3.50/MMBtu on Wednesday, touching their highest daily average spot price this spring, with temperatures around the Orlando area increasing by 3 degrees Fahrenheit to 84 degrees Fahrenheit over the week.The net injection into storage for the week ended May 22 was 92 Bcf, down from 101 Bcf the prior week, bringing total gas inventories to 2,483 Bcf, according to EIA data.The injection was below analyst forecasts of 96 Bcf, according to data compiled by Investing.com, indicating a narrower storage surplus.During the same period last year, the EIA reported a net injection of 104 Bcf, while the five-year average for this period was 97 Bcf.All regions reported a net injection of working gas into storage for the week ended May 22, with the Midwest region seeing a net build of 34 Bcf, the East adding 28 Bcf, and the South Central region reporting a build of 21 Bcf.According to Pinebrook Energy Advisors, this week's EIA report shows the market's growing sensitivity "to even modest warmer shifts in the forecast."Weather forecasts continue to point to above-normal temperatures across two-thirds of the country in early to mid-June, according to the National Weather Service.A total of 32 liquefied natural gas-carrying vessels left US ports during the week, down from 34 vessels the previous week, with a total capacity of 121 Bcf, down by 7 Bcf from the prior week.The daily rate of LNG exports in March 2026 was 18.6 Bcf/d, about 25.1% higher than the daily rate in March 2025, EIA data showed.March 2026 exports were sent to 34 countries and totaled the highest rate for any month since tracking LNG exports began in 1997.Meanwhile, the US gas rig count remained unchanged over the week at 125 in the week ending May 29, according to data from Baker Hughes (BKR) released Friday. That compares with 109 gas in operation a year earlier.The consolidated North American oil and gas rig count, a key early indicator of future production levels, rose by 28 to 728 from 696 the previous week.In international markets, European TTF gas prices averaged $16.35/MMBtu for the week ended May 27, $0.66/MMBtu lower than the previous week. The Japan-Korea Marker averaged $18.60/MMBtu, about $0.27/MMBtu higher than the prior week.

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Oil & Energy71d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Settles Lower as Markets Assess US-Iran Peace Deal Progress

Crude oil futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Friday as markets weighed progress in peace negotiations between the US and Iran to end the three-month conflict, which could pave the way for the reopening of the vital Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 1.28% to $87.76 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 1.84% to $91.99/bbl.Saxo Bank strategists said oil fell to a five-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, with Brent heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2020, as expectations grew that the agreement could pave the way for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.President Trump reportedly ended a meeting in the White House Situation Room without announcing his final decision on whether to approve a deal to pause the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Earlier on Friday, Trump said on Truth Social that he would make his "final determination" during that meeting, after outlining conditions for a potential Iran peace deal."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social.The US President said that Washington would lift the retaliatory US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, noting that vessels previously affected by the blockade could now return home."Ships caught in the Hormuz Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of 'heading home!'," he said.ING strategists said the oil market is continuing to edge lower amid growing optimism that the US and Iran are moving toward a deal, noting that the reopening of the Strait would offer immediate relief to global energy markets.Meanwhile, Iran's Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post that Tehran seizes concessions not through dialogue but with missiles, adding, "in negotiations, we merely make them understand"."We have no trust in guarantees or words, only actions are the measure," Ghalibaf said in a social media post X. "No action will be taken before the other side acts."Saxo Bank strategists said that though significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf.

Oil & Energy71d ago

Oil Stockpiles Shrink Rapidly as Hormuz Disruptions Persist, Global Agencies Say

Global oil inventories are being drawn down at a "record pace" as disruptions linked to the Strait of Hormuz continue to remove significant supply from the market, international agencies said in a statement on Friday.The heads of the International Energy Agency, International Monetary Fund, World Bank Group and World Trade Organization met on May 28 to coordinate their response to the energy and economic fallout from the Middle East conflict and assess risks facing global markets."If shipping flows do not return to normal, continued rapid depletion of global oil inventories ahead of peak summer oil demand in the Northern Hemisphere would present increasing risks for fuel security, market conditions, and broader economic resilience," according to the joint statement released Friday.The statement said the conflict is generating "substantial and highly asymmetric impacts on energy supplies," increasing pressure across energy markets and creating challenges for fuel-importing economies.The agencies warned that vulnerable countries are facing "higher fuel and fertilizer prices, increased uncertainty, and risks to jobs and livelihoods," while rising fertilizer costs are adding pressure ahead of key planting seasons.Officials reviewed the impact of supply disruptions across affected regions and discussed ways to strengthen support for countries facing the greatest energy-related challenges."We will remain in close contact as the situation evolves and continue coordinating our efforts to support the countries most affected and global economic stability," the group said.

Oil & Energy71d ago

US-Iran Deal Hopes Trigger Broad CTA Selling Across Oil Markets, Kpler Says

Expectations for progress in US-Iran negotiations sparked broad selling across oil markets, with Commodity Trading Advisor activity adding further pressure to crude and refined-product time spreads, Kpler said Friday.As optimism around negotiations grew on May 21, traders sold oil futures and spreads across multiple markets, pushing prices and market structures lower.In Brent, one Trend CTA strategy reduced its bullish position for the first time since April 30, selling about 8,917 lots and lowering its exposure from 100% long to 91% long.Kpler said further price declines could push that strategy into a short position if Brent falls to about $99.49 per barrel. Reversion CTAs had already increased bearish bets from 71% short to 86% short on May 20.After Brent M1/M2 backwardation narrowed by over $0.50/bbl and fell below $3.58/bbl, CTA strategies sold another 11,530 lots, adding to weakness in the spread, Kpler said.Selling had already emerged on May 20 with about 1,153 lots sold, leaving Brent M1/M2 positioning only 12.5% long, the lowest level since April 27, while traders also sold roughly 624 lots in the quarterly Brent spread.WTI avoided Trend CTA selling while Reversion CTAs reduced bearish positions from 71% short to 43% short, with strong exports and tighter US crude supplies continuing to support fundamentals, Kpler said.Even with those supportive fundamentals, WTI spreads weakened as traders sold about 417 lots in M1/M3 and 324 lots in M2/M3, according to Kpler.In gasoline markets, Trend CTAs reduced exposure after remaining fully long since April 27, selling about 1,424 RBOB lots while five strategies liquidated a combined 3,580 lots in the M1/M2 spread.Diesel markets also faced selling pressure as traders sold about 936 lots in ULSD M2/M3 and roughly 1,696 lots in Gasoil M2/M3 after that spread fell below $41.25 per metric ton, Kpler said.

Oil & Energy71d ago

Negotiation Optimism Outpaces Reality as Iran Conflict Continues, RBC Says

Ongoing military clashes and uncertainty around a proposed 60-day ceasefire continue to cloud the outlook for Strait of Hormuz shipping, RBC Capital Markets said Friday.On Thursday, US forces intercepted four Iranian drones over the Strait of Hormuz and struck military targets near Bandar Abbas, while Kuwait intercepted a ballistic missile launched by Iran toward a US base, RBC said.The latest incidents followed US attacks earlier in the week on two vessels accused of laying mines in the Strait and on an air-defense position near Bandar Abbas, according to the report.Reports have suggested both sides could agree to a 60-day ceasefire extension that would allow further negotiations and free navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, but RBC said expectations for a comprehensive deal appear to be ahead of actual developments.The firm noted that similar agreement reports emerged three weeks ago, yet the conflict has continued and roughly 300 million barrels of production have been lost since then. Fresh reports of attacks on vessels that did not coordinate passage with the IRGC also surfaced after the latest market selloff.Even if an interim agreement increases vessel movements, RBC expects traffic to remain difficult because early transit approvals would likely occur in only one direction, complicating efforts to clear shipping backlogs.RBC believes Feb. 27, 2026, may prove to be the peak for Hormuz tanker traffic for the foreseeable future. The firm expects lower volumes if Iran retains operational influence over the waterway, while the UAE and Saudi Arabia increasingly expand alternative export routes.High insurance costs, sanctions-related legal risks, and the possibility of renewed missile, drone, and mine attacks could discourage many Western shipping companies from returning even if a 60-day agreement is signed, RBC said.Shipping specialists have indicated that a reopening overseen by Iran would likely support only limited volumes, while unrestricted transit may require a clearer military outcome and stronger security guarantees, according to RBC.The firm also said some Iranian policymakers may prefer the current environment, as transit fees and oil sales under waivers continue generating revenue while the ceasefire period allows time to rebuild military capabilities.Strategic petroleum reserve releases and high inventories initially softened the impact of the disruption, but RBC said those buffers are gradually shrinking as the conflict enters its fourth month, increasing pressure to restore normal flows through the Strait of Hormuz.At the current six-week average draw rate, inventory cover could fall to just 30-40 days by October, the lowest level in data going back to 2016, RBC said.RBC expects stockpiles to tighten even faster in the coming weeks, with limited visibility into some markets, including China, potentially masking larger inventory declines.The firm said prolonged disruptions through the summer could strain refinery operations and test the market's ability to avoid a more severe supply crunch.

Oil & Energy71d ago

US Centcom Flags Elevated Risk in Strait of Hormuz; Iranian Sources Dispute Trump's Deal Claims

The US Naval Forces Central Command on Friday kept the threat level in the Strait of Hormuz at "critical," warning that ongoing military activity could increase risks for commercial vessels operating in the area."Military operations will be conducted within the area north of the Musandam Peninsula in the Strait of Hormuz," US Centcom said in an advisory published by the Joint Maritime Information Center.It described Iran's efforts to assert control over the Strait as "illegal.""Iran continues to attempt illegal control of the Strait of Hormuz, to include dangerous and illegal mining that places ships and mariners at risk," according to the advisory.The advisory also alleged that Iran continues to place mines in the Strait, hindering safe passage."Iran continues to impede mine clearance and safe transit of the Strait of Hormuz," the advisory said.US Centcom warned vessels to follow instructions from US forces and avoid areas affected by military operations and mine-clearing activities.Any vessel involved in or supporting mine-laying operations could be treated as a threat and targeted in self-defense, Centcom said.Earlier on Friday, US President Donald Trump posted on Truth Social that any mines placed in the Strait of Hormuz would be removed."All water mines (bombs), if any, will be terminated (we have removed, through detonation, numerous such mines with our great underwater mine sweepers. Iran will complete the immediate removal and/or detonation of any mines that are left, which will not be many!)," Trump posted.Trump also lifted the US naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman and urged that the Strait be opened immediately."The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions," Trump said.However, Iranian sources reportedly disputed Trump's description of a proposed agreement, saying key elements of his statements do not match the agreement under review, according to Fars News Agency, citing sources.The sources reportedly told Fars that the draft agreement does not require Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz without conditions or fees.Instead, Iran plans to restore navigation under its existing framework, which could include vessel monitoring, inspections and maritime security measures.The report also disputed Trump's claim that Iran would dismantle or destroy its nuclear materials, with sources saying the memorandum of understanding contains no such provision.The agreement follows a commitment-for-commitment structure and remains in the final stages of review in Iran, while authorities have not yet made a final decision on ratification, the report said.Separately, Esmail Baghaei, the Spokesperson for the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, called the US naval blockade illegal and said it violated both the ceasefire and international navigation rights, according to remarks carried by the IRGC News Channel on Friday.Baghaei said Iran will judge US intentions by actions rather than statements and argued that any removal of the blockade would merely reverse measures that should never have been implemented.

Oil & Energy71d ago

Market Chatter: India's IOC Buys 5 Million Barrels of Crude in Supply Push

Indian Oil Corporation bought 5 million barrels of crude oil from West Africa and the Middle East through a tender this week, Reuters reported on Friday, citing trade sources.The state refiner purchased Angola's Kissanje and Nemba grades for delivery to its Paradip refinery. IOC also bought Nigeria's Usan crude from Exxon Mobil (XOM) and Abu Dhabi's Murban crude from Mercuria Energy Group for delivery to Vadinar.The energy firm acquired Murban crude from Totsa, the trading arm of TotalEnergies (TTE), for delivery to Chennai.IOC did not immediately reply to inquiries from.The West African cargoes traded at premiums of about $4 a barrel to dated Brent, while the Murban cargoes were sold at flat to marginal premiums against the benchmark.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)Price: $145.69, Change: $-1.28, Percent Change: -0.87%

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Oil & Energy72d ago

Oil Price Slide on Hormuz Disruptions Easing Could Favor Energy Importer Currencies, Macquarie Says

A drop of over $15 per barrel in Brent crude since May 18 could support the euro, pound and yen if Hormuz shipping resumes, Macquarie strategists said in a Friday note."Should crude oil prices continue to fall as a result of an opening of the Strait of Hormuz that comes with a ceasefire agreement, the beneficiaries (all else equal) will be the currencies of the energyimporting countries, such as the EUR, GBP, and JPY," according to the note.Macquarie said energy-importing economies stand to benefit the most if a ceasefire leads to the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and pushes oil prices closer to pre-conflict levels.Markets increasingly view the reopening of Hormuz as a key condition of any extended US-Iran ceasefire, although negotiations still require approval from both US and Iranian leaders.Even if an agreement emerges, shipping activity may take time to recover because operators could first need to remove mines from the waterway.One proposal reportedly gives Iran 30 days to complete that process.As traders priced in a lower risk of prolonged disruptions, crude prices retreated sharply over the past week, helping drive gains in global bond and equity markets.The US Dollar Index has weakened only modestly since May 18, but Macquarie expects foreign-exchange markets to respond more strongly if oil prices continue falling.Higher energy costs have already pressured major importing economies. Eurozone consumer inflation reached 3% in April from about 2% before the conflict, while preliminary data point to a reading near 3.3% in May.With wage growth running near 2.5% on an annualized basis, rising prices have likely reduced real incomes across the euro area, even as expectations for a European Central Bank rate increase remain in place.The United Kingdom faces similar challenges, with May composite Purchasing Managers' Index data remaining below 50 and real wage growth showing little improvement since the first quarter, according to the report.In Japan, higher energy costs prompted the Bank of Japan to cut its 2026 growth forecast to 0.5% from 1.0% and raise its core inflation outlook to 2.8%, Macquarie said.Japanese authorities have largely relied on foreign-exchange intervention instead of tighter monetary policy, spending about $74 million in May to support the yen against speculative pressure, the report said.A Brookings Institution analysis suggests temporary supply buffers could largely disappear by July if Persian Gulf oil flows remain constrained. Under that scenario, nearly half of the roughly 15 million barrels per day that moved through Hormuz before March could be removed from the market.Macquarie said renewed Hormuz flows would therefore provide meaningful relief for oil-importing economies, supporting currencies such as the euro, pound and yen.Macquarie highlighted the Cleveland Federal Reserve trimmed mean inflation at 2.83% in May, up from 2.64% in March, with the monthly reading reaching 0.43%, or 5.2% annualized.The firm cautioned that the outlook depends on lower oil prices. If crude remains elevated, the US dollar could stay firm as inflation pressures persist and the Federal Reserve leans toward keeping a tightening bias.

Oil & Energy72d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Drops on Iran Peace Deal Optimism, Trump Lifts Hormuz Blockade

Crude futures retreated in midday trading on Friday after President Trump lifted the US naval blockade and outlined conditions for a tentative Iran peace deal that includes reopening the Strait of Hormuz, potentially easing concerns over a major disruption to global energy flows.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell 2.43% to $86.66 per barrel, while Brent futures shed 1.97% to $91.86/bbl.US crude oil stockpiles fell by 3.3 million barrels to 441.7 mmbbls in the week ended May 22, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Thursday.Strategic Petroleum Reserve inventories dropped to 365.1 mmbbls for the week ended May 22, down from 374.2 mmbbls a week ago, marking a weekly decline of 9.1 mmbbls, EIA data showed.Crude inventories are now about 2% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said."US refineries are now ramping up to supply enough gasoline and diesel for the summer season. They thus use more crude with less crude left for exports, which have now fallen to the lowest level in two months in response," said Bjarne Schieldrop, chief commodities analyst at SEB Research.On Friday, Trump said he would meet in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination on an agreement with Iran."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social.The US President said that Washington would lift the retaliatory US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, noting that vessels previously affected by the blockade could now return home."Ships caught in the Hormuz Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of 'heading home!'," he said.ING strategists said the oil market is continuing to edge lower amid growing optimism that the US and Iran are moving toward a deal, noting that the reopening of the Strait would offer immediate relief to global energy markets.Meanwhile, Iran's Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post that Tehran seizes concessions not through dialogue but with missiles, adding, "in negotiations, we merely make them understand"."We have no trust in guarantees or words - only actions are the measure," Ghalibaf said in a social media post X. "No action will be taken before the other side acts."Saxo Bank strategists said that though significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf.

Oil & Energy72d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Falls After Trump Lifts Hormuz Blockade, Outlines Iran Deal Terms

EMEA crude futures dropped in after-hours trading on Friday after President Trump lifted the retaliatory US naval blockade of Iranian ports, raising expectations of increased global supply and easing concerns about supply disruptions.Brent crude futures fell by 1.91% to $91.92 per barrel, while Murban oil futures retreated 1.69% to $92.50/bbl."The oil market continues to edge lower amid growing optimism that the US and Iran are moving toward a deal," ING strategists said, adding that the reopening of the Strait would offer some immediate relief to the global energy markets.On Friday, Trump said he would meet in the White House Situation Room to make a final determination on an agreement with Iran."I will be meeting now, in the Situation Room, to make a final determination," Trump said in a social media post on Truth Social.The US President said that Washington would lift the retaliatory US naval blockade in the Gulf of Oman, noting that vessels previously affected by the blockade could now return home. "Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of 'heading home!" he said.The development comes a day after media reports suggesting that US and Iran negotiators had reached a tentative agreement for a 60-day ceasefire extension and the start of talks on Tehran's nuclear program.Saxo Bank strategists said oil fell to a five-week low after the US and Iran tentatively agreed to extend their ceasefire by 60 days, with Brent heading for its biggest monthly decline since 2020, as expectations grew that the agreement could pave the way for a gradual reopening of the Strait of Hormuz."While significant hurdles remain, the market is reacting to the prospect of a supply surge once hundreds of tankers loaded with crude oil and refined fuels are released from the Persian Gulf," the analysts said.Meanwhile, Iran's Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said in a social media post that Tehran seizes concessions not through dialogue but with missiles, adding, "in negotiations, we merely make them understand"."We have no trust in guarantees or words, only actions are the measure," Ghalibaf said in a social media post X. "No action will be taken before the other side acts."

Oil & Energy72d ago

Oil Market Could Swing Back to Oversupply as Venezuelan, Iranian Output Recovers, Kpler Says

Brent crude has climbed above $100 per barrel during the Iran conflict, but a return of Venezuelan, Iranian and Russian volumes could create oversupply risks and weigh on prices by 2027, according to Kpler in a Friday note.While markets currently focus on disrupted Middle East supplies, geopolitical developments could eventually allow more sanctioned crude to return, adding significant volumes to an already well-supplied market.Before the conflict began, analysts expected global oil supplies to exceed demand by almost 2 million barrels per day, the largest surplus since the Covid-19 pandemic.Political changes in Venezuela and new operating approvals have accelerated production growth, lifting output to about 1.25 million b/d and putting the country on track to reach 1.5 million b/d by 2027.Venezuelan production could rise by almost 600,000 b/d over the year to roughly 1.3 million b/d, increasing competition among heavy crude suppliers, according to Kpler estimates.If sanctions are eased, Iran could quickly return substantial volumes to the market. Kpler estimated that about 150 million barrels of Iranian crude currently remain in floating storage.Additional revenue and sanctions relief could help Iran increase production to around 4 million b/d next year, up from about 2.7 million b/d currently, while barrels stored could enter the market rapidly.Repeated US waivers have encouraged more Asian refiners to purchase Russian crude, helping exports remain near 3.5 million b/d despite continued Ukrainian drone attacks, Kpler said.Countries such as Indonesia and the Philippines have joined the buyer pool for Russian oil, reducing the impact of potential future restrictions and supporting export demand.The bearish supply outlook faces risks, as Israeli strikes have reduced output from Iran's South Pars condensate project and restoring lost production could require substantial investment, Kpler said.Uncertainty surrounding any US-Iran agreement also remains high. The White House on Friday dismissed reports of a memorandum of understanding as a "complete fabrication," a development that could prolong supply tightness tied to disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, Kpler said.

Oil & Energy72d ago

Russia's Diesel Supply Tightens Further After Wave of Drone Attacks, Reuters Analysis Says

Russia's diesel output fell by about 10% in May, extending April's about 10% decline, as Ukrainian drone strikes on refineries forced temporary shutdowns and curtailed operations, Reuters analysis showed on Friday.The disruptions have left Russia balancing reduced domestic fuel supply against resilient export flows, even as Ukraine intensifies attacks on energy infrastructure to erode Moscow's oil and gas revenues.However, despite the production declines, seaborne shipments of diesel and gasoil rose 8% over the month in April to about 3.25 million metric tons, the analysis showed, only marginally below year-earlier levels. Export volumes have remained broadly steady into May.Industry estimates suggest refinery strikes cut diesel output by about 1 million mt in April and a further 600,000 mt in May. Total production stood at about 7.5 million mt in March.Russia has so far prioritized maintaining export flows, even as domestic demand rises seasonally with the peak agricultural period.The country's policymakers have reportedly discussed the possibility of an export ban. However, market participants say such a move remains unlikely, given the operational strain it could impose on refiners already affected by outages.The supply shock comes at a time of heightened volatility in global energy markets amid the ongoing Middle East conflict and near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz. However, refinery outages in Russia may limit its ability to capitalize fully on elevated prices.The evolving energy shock adds another layer of complexity to global oil flows, as Russia attempts to sustain exports while absorbing sustained pressure on its refining system.

Oil & Energy72d ago

Trump Lifts US Naval Blockade Near Strait of Hormuz, Outlines Iran Peace Deal Terms

President Donald Trump said on Friday that the retaliatory US naval blockade against Iran in the Gulf of Oman will be lifted, noting that vessels previously affected by the blockade could now return home."Ships caught in the Strait due to our amazing and unprecedented Naval Blockade, which will now be lifted, may start the process of 'heading home!'" Trump said in a Truth Social post on Friday.He added that Iran must permanently forgo nuclear weapons and allow unrestricted shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz for him to approve a deal to end the ongoing conflict.Iran "must agree that they will never have a nuclear weapon or bomb," he said."The Hormuz Strait must be immediately open, no tolls, for unrestricted shipping traffic, in both directions," Trump said.On Iran's nuclear program, Trump said the enriched material located at the site of last year's attacks on Iran's nuclear facilities will be "unearthed" by the US "in close coordination and conjunction" with Iran and the International Atomic Energy Agency."No money will be exchanged, until further notice," Trump said. "Other items, of far less importance, have been agreed to."Trump said he was heading to the Situation Room to make a final determination, without providing further details.

Oil & Energy72d ago

US, Iran Agree in Principle to 60-Day Framework to End Conflict, TPH Energy Says

The US and Iran have agreed in principle to a 60-day memorandum of understanding that would lay the groundwork for negotiations to end the ongoing Middle East conflict, Jeff LeBlanc, a TPH Energy strategist, said in a Friday note.However, the agreement is still awaiting approval from President Trump as negotiators finalize language around Iran's nuclear program.LeBlanc said the tentative framework, first confirmed by US officials on Wednesday, would keep a fragile ceasefire in place, while both sides negotiate a broader accord covering sanctions relief, oil exports and security in the Strait of Hormuz.The proposed memorandum would reportedly include a commitment by Iran to reopen the Hormuz to unrestricted commercial traffic within 30 days and pledge not to pursue a nuclear weapon.The US, in exchange, would lift its naval blockade and potentially provide waivers on some oil sanctions, according to details circulating among market participants and analysts.However, Iranian rhetoric has continued to frame oversight of the Strait as a sovereign right, underscoring the challenges negotiators face in converting a ceasefire into a durable settlement.LeBlanc said this MoU only lays the framework for future negotiations, "... with both parties reiterating red lines, this process is likely to be laborious."Markets remained focused on the Hormuz, the key chokepoint that carries about 20% of the world's crude supply.LeBlanc said traffic via the strategic waterway has yet to fully normalize following the outbreak of the ongoing conflict and mine-laying incidents in the Persian Gulf.TPH analysts said language surrounding Iran's removal of naval mines suggests the reopening process could take longer than initially anticipated, leaving energy markets vulnerable to renewed disruptions even as diplomatic progress continues.Crude prices have retreated from recent highs on expectations that a sustained ceasefire and eventual sanctions relief could restore more Iranian barrels to global markets.However, the analysts cautioned that the agreement remains preliminary and could still unravel if negotiations over Iran's nuclear ambitions stall.The US and Iran have publicly maintained that the ceasefire remains intact despite sporadic skirmishes reported over recent days, which has helped sustain optimism that talks will continue.

Oil & Energy72d ago

Dark Shipping Expands Beyond Iran-Linked Fleets Across Hormuz, Vortexa Says

Over half of Hormuz tanker crossings now occur in the dark, with hidden movements reaching 57% of all tracked transits, Vortexa strategists said in a Friday note.Since March 1, vessels have switched off AIS signals during hundreds of Strait of Hormuz crossings, pushing dark movements to 57% of all recorded transits and limiting visibility into cargo flow.After accounting for 58.5% of outbound laden transits in March, dark voyages eased to 54% in April when traffic volumes surged, before jumping to 65.2% in May, Vortexa said.Non-Iranian operators now account for most dark outbound laden voyages through Hormuz as shipping companies increasingly switch off AIS signals to manage conflict risks and operational uncertainty while keeping Gulf cargoes moving.Outside Hormuz, dark loading activity accelerated sharply between April and May, indicating that reduced transparency now extends beyond transit movements alone, according to Vortexa.Where dark loadings initially centered on Das Island, Zirku and Jebel Dhanna terminals, activity later expanded toward Fujairah terminal and nearby ship-to-ship transfers, Vortexa added.Despite strong export volumes from the UAE throughout the crisis, the share of cargoes loaded under dark conditions climbed from minimal levels in early March to above 90% recently.Across April and May, Very Large Crude Carrier vessels consistently handled about 59% of dark cargo loadings, underscoring operators' focus on moving larger parcels despite disruptions, the note added.Crude oil and condensates accounted for about 40% of dark outbound laden movements through Hormuz, while clean products accounted for nearly 25%, dirty products for close to 18%, and liquefied petroleum gas for around 14%.Reduced AIS visibility is making fuel flows harder to track beyond crude oil, while VLCC vessels account for roughly 25% to 33% of dark outbound transits each month, Vortexa said.Non-Iranian operators increased their share of dark outbound laden transits through Hormuz from 37% in March to 56% in April and 67% in May, showing that AIS-off navigation is becoming more widely used across the Gulf, the note added.UAE-linked vessels account for about 27% of non-Iranian dark movements, followed by Iraq at 11% and Qatar at 10%, while Saudi Arabia, Kuwait and Bahrain contribute another 9%, indicating that dark transits can no longer be viewed mainly as Iranian-linked activity.Growing use of dark shipping is making Gulf energy exports harder to track, increasing uncertainty around cargo origins, delivery timing and supply availability across crude oil, fuels, LPG and LNG markets, according to Vortexa.

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Oil & Energy71d ago

Crude Posts 2nd Weekly Decline as US-Iran Deal Hopes Fuel Volatile Trade

$BKR