Brent crude has climbed about 15% since Friday as renewed US-Iran hostilities threaten a wider conflict and disrupt shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, TPH Energy said in a note on Tuesday.
The US and Iran have exchanged retaliatory strikes over the past 48 hours after Tehran enforced its Strait of Hormuz closure. President Donald Trump also said the US would control the waterway, charge for protecting vessels and reinstate the US blockade.
Washington also struck Iran on Monday and Tuesday after accusing Tehran of violating the memorandum of understanding, while both sides continued restricting passage through the Strait of Hormuz, further escalating tensions, TPH Energy said.
Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz had already slowed sharply by Sunday as both sides tightened restrictions on vessel movements.
Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps claimed responsibility for Monday's attacks on two UAE oil tankers, with the strikes causing significant damage and likely bringing commercial traffic close to a standstill outside of dark fleet operations, TPH Energy said.
TPH Energy said the renewed standoff differs from earlier episodes because Iran now has greater capacity to withstand a renewed US blockade.
Markets also weighed reports that Trump was considering strikes on an inland Iranian nuclear facility while Houthi forces targeted Saudi Arabia's Abha airport, developments that have further heightened fears of a broader regional conflict, TPH Energy said.