Houthi attacks on Saudi Arabia have widened risks to global energy trade beyond the Strait of Hormuz, raising concerns that the Red Sea could become a second major conflict zone, Kpler said in a Tuesday note.
Kpler said the Yemen-based Houthis largely stayed out of earlier fighting between the US and Iran, helping preserve the Bab el-Mandeb Strait in the Red Sea as a key alternative shipping route despite repeated military exchanges and disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz.
Saudi strikes on Houthi targets triggered missile and drone attacks against Saudi Arabia, increasing the likelihood that the Red Sea is emerging as a second maritime front, Kpler said.
The firm added that the breakdown of the unofficial truce between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis could have implications beyond Yemen by exposing additional crude oil, refined products, and shipping flows to disruption.
The escalation raises three key questions for governments, Kpler said, including how much additional energy supply is at risk, which participants could join Iran next and when countries may choose direct involvement to protect national interests.
Saudi Arabia spent over a decade expanding the East-West Pipeline and Yanbu export infrastructure to keep crude flowing if the Strait of Hormuz becomes disrupted, Kpler said.
Yanbu has since become a major refining and export hub, making the Red Sea a core part of Saudi Arabia's energy security.
Kpler said any disruption at the Bab el-Mandeb would threaten another key corridor for crude, refined products and Europe-Asia shipping.
The firm described the Houthi attacks as an example of horizontal escalation, in which conflicts gradually spread into new geographies and involve additional participants rather than expanding all at once.
Kpler said Hezbollah and Iranian-backed militias in Iraq and Syria could emerge as the next participants, increasing risks to strategic energy infrastructure and maritime corridors.
Each additional participant could expose another part of the global energy system, with the Strait of Hormuz threatening crude exports while the Houthis now place the Bab el-Mandeb, Saudi Arabia's contingency export route and refined product supplies, at greater risk, Kpler said.
The report said Gulf states may need to play a more active role in protecting energy infrastructure and shipping lanes, while Europe also has a direct interest in preserving freedom of navigation through the Red Sea.
Kpler also pointed to reports that Cuba has acquired Iranian-designed Shahed drones, saying the developments have renewed debate over Iran's ability to project asymmetric capabilities closer to the US through strategic partnerships.
The firm said the widening conflict increases military and political risks with every new participant, shifting attention from who is fighting the war to which strategic geography could become vulnerable next.