FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

Hormuz Traffic Plunges as Renewed Iran-US Conflict Threatens Oil Flows

By

Commercial vessel traffic through the Strait of Hormuz continues to decline as renewed hostilities between the US and Iran disrupt energy flows through the strategic waterway, according to shipping data released on Tuesday.

Vessel transits via the Strait of Hormuz continued to decline on Monday, according to MarineTraffic data, which showed a total of 10 verified crossings, down by six from the previous day.

"Low risk commercial vessels accounted for the sharpest day on day reduction, while nine of the 10 crossings used the Iranian Route," according to MarineTraffic.

MarineTraffic said that crew safety, insurance costs, and operational acceptance remain the primary constraints on transit decisions, as shipowners weigh whether transiting through the key chokepoint is commercially viable.

TPH Energy strategists said the slowdown comes amid heightened security risks following deadly attacks on two UAE oil tankers, claimed by Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.

The strikes have further restricted passage through the Strait, with shipping activity already heavily suppressed before the attacks.

Meanwhile, the International Maritime Organization, the UN's shipping agency, on Monday confirmed 53 maritime security incidents linked to the Middle East conflict.

The deterioration in maritime security in the Strait of Hormuz comes just 26 days after the US and Iran signed a 60-day interim agreement, a framework that had temporarily reduced tensions and allowed limited oil flows to resume.

TankerTrackers posted on X on Monday that during this period, over 80 million barrels of Iranian crude oil and refined products, worth over $6 billion at current prices, have left the region, including shipments in the weeks leading up to the agreement.

However, with the US blockade now being reinstated, TankerTrackers said about 30 million barrels of Iranian crude oil may remain awaiting departure.

Over 60 million barrels of floating storage capacity remain available to Iran within the blockade perimeter, potentially allowing Tehran to continue production while holding unsold crude offshore.

The US blockade threatens to reverse the fragile recovery in Gulf shipping activity and could force traders to reassess the availability of Middle Eastern crude supplies.

US Central Command posted on X that military forces had resumed the blockade against vessels transiting to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday.

"There are currently more than 20 US Navy warships and hundreds of military aircraft operating across the Middle East," Centcom said.

The latest escalation followed a series of retaliatory strikes between the US and Iran after Tehran moved to enforce restrictions on Hormuz traffic.

The US Centcom conducted an additional round of strikes on Tuesday against Iran to hamper its ability to attack commercial vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz.

The strategic waterway handles about one-fifth of global oil consumption and remains critical for exports from Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, the UAE and Qatar.

TPH analysts said any prolonged disruption could tighten global crude markets, increase freight and insurance costs, and complicate energy flows into Asia.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Surges Near 10% as Trump Reinstates Iran Blockade, Reveals Hormuz Security Plan

Crude futures settled higher in after-hours trading on Monday after President Trump reinstated a blockade targeting Iran and unveiled plans for a 20% reimbursement fee on vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz, stoking concerns about further disruption to global energy flows.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures surged 9.7% to $78.33 per barrel, while Brent futures advanced 9.9% to $83.65/bbl. Crude futures are at their highest level in nearly a month.The US Central Command said on Monday that the US military launched more strikes against Iran at President Trump's direction."These strikes will continue imposing a heavy cost on Iranian forces and degrade their ability to attack innocent civilians and commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz," Centcom said in an X post on Monday.The US military is set to resume blockading traffic to and from Iranian ports and coastal areas starting at 4 p.m. ET on Tuesday, after Trump reinstated the blockade of Iranian ships transiting the Hormuz and demanded a 20% reimbursement on all other cargo shipped through the waterway.However, Iranian Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi reacted to the post, saying that while Trump was correct in principle that countries responsible for ensuring the safe passage of commercial vessels should receive compensation, Tehran remains the historic guardian of the strategic waterway."Iran has always been the guardian of the Strait and will remain so forever. 20% is of course too much. We will be fair," Araghchi posted on X.The International Maritime Organization, the United Nations' shipping agency, said in a statement on Monday that it opposes any form of transit fee in the Strait of Hormuz.IMO said that passage through the Strait of Hormuz should remain free of tolls and charges, in accordance with international law.Gelber & Associates strategists said Trump's reinstatement of restrictions on Iranian maritime traffic, alongside retaliatory attacks and reduced vessel flows through the Strait, has intensified concerns over near-term supply availability.Earlier on Monday, Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps said that normal shipping through the strategic waterway could resume only if the US halted its military operations in the region, noting that continued American intervention risked broader disruption to global oil and gas markets.The Persian Gulf Strait Authority, the Iranian authority overseeing navigation in the Hormuz, also said transit had been suspended following what it described as "illegal movements" by US military forcesMeanwhile, tanker traffic through the Hormuz fell significantly, with the latest data from MarineTraffic indicating that confirmed crossings dropped by about 52% over the week, between July 10 and July 12.Kim said that unless shipping through Hormuz normalises quickly, the market is likely to remain highly sensitive to any further attacks on energy infrastructure.The US has played a central role in cushioning global oil markets amid ongoing supply disruptions, but its ability to continue offsetting losses is under pressure as domestic emergency stockpiles decline and risks mount in the Strait.Meanwhile, the US Department of Energy's latest data released Monday showed the Strategic Petroleum Reserve held 316.5 million barrels as of July 10, down from 319.5 million barrels a week earlier.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Iran's Crude Exports Reached 57 Million Barrels Between US Maritime Blockades

Iran shipped at least 57 million barrels of crude while US maritime blockade restrictions were temporarily eased, allowing exports to recover before Washington reinstated the measures, Bloomberg reported Monday.In the brief period between the US-imposed maritime blockades, Iran's crude exports averaged at least 2.2 million barrels per day, aided by shipments from its export terminals and by cargoes carried by tankers that had remained at an Iranian port in the Gulf of Oman. Actual export flows could be higher, according to Bloomberg.Washington will reinstate shipping restrictions tied to Iranian ports and seek a 20% reimbursement on cargo moving through the Strait of Hormuz after President Donald Trump ended a short-lived easing of sanctions on Iranian crude sales.Iran's Ministry of Foreign Affairs could not be reached for comment, despite' attempts.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy

US Centcom Launches 3rd Consecutive Night of Strikes Against Iran, Cites Threats to Strait of Hormuz Shipping