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AI, Persian Gulf Outlooks Cap Wall Street Pre-Bell; Asia Up, Europe Off

Wall Street futures pointed largely sideways pre-bell Monday, as traders weighed unverified reports of a US warship struck near the Strait of Hormuz, and assessed values with major equity indices at all-time zeniths.In the futures, the S&P 500 fell 0.1% and the Nasdaq was steady, after hitting fresh record highs on Friday. The Dow Jones was off 0.4% in pre-bell action.Investors also await the Job Opening and Labor Turnover Survey (JOLTS) report for March on Tuesday, and then the national April jobs report from Washington on Friday, for clues to US labor markets.Palantir Technologies (PLTR) reports earnings after-bell, while Advanced Micro Devices (AMD) and McDonald's (MCD) report later this week, among others.Spurred by tech-rallies, Asian exchanges traded mostly higher overnight in holiday-thinned trading. Taiwan's TWSE Index rose 4.6%, while Seoul's KOSPI Index gained 5.1%. Exchanges in Bangkok, Shanghai and Tokyo remained closed.European bourses tracked moderately lower midday on the continent.eBay (EBAY) shares traded up 9.9% pre-bell, after the online marketplace received a $56 billion buyout-bid from video-retailer GameStop (GME).On the economic calendar is the factory orders bulletin for March, at 10 am ET.John Williams, New York Federal Reserve president, is slated to speak on Monday.In premarket action, Bitcoin traded at $78,529, and 10-year US Treasuries offered 4.41%. Spot gold commanded $4,559 an ounce.

Hang SengNikkei 225Shanghai Composite

AI-Tech Rallies Lift Asian Stock Markets in Holiday Thinned Trading

Led by large tech-rallies in Seoul and Taiwan, Asian stock markets gained ground on Monday in holiday-thinned trading.Hong Kong also finished in the green, while Bangkok, Shanghai and Tokyo remained shuttered.After recent AI-triggered rallies on Wall Street, Seoul's KOSPI Index rose 5.1% to strike a fresh all-time zenith, led by semiconductor giants Samsung Electronics, up 5.4%, and SJ Hynix, up 12.5%.Taiwan's TWSE Index rose 4.6% on the day, also hitting new record high, led by 6.6% rise in Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing shares.In Hong Kong, the Hang Seng Index opened higher and held ground, finishing up 1.2% as traders embraced tech and property shares.The broad gauge Hang Seng rose 319.25 to 26,095.88, as gaining issues outnumbered losers 71 to 19. The Hang Seng TECH Index gained 2.2% on the day, while the Mainland Properties Index rose 2.1%.Leading the upside was smart-phone and EV-maker Xiaomi, gaining 6.8%, while Macau gaming-house Galaxy Entertainment declined 2.8%.On the other regional exchanges, the Australian ASX 200 declined 0.4%; the Singapore Straits Times Index rose 0.2%, and Mumbai's Sensex was up 0.5%.In economic news, the seasonally adjusted South Korea manufacturing purchasing managers index (PMI) logged at 53.6 in April, up from 52.6 in March, and striking further above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, said S&P Global.

Eurozone Final Manufacturing PMI Hits 47-month High in April

The euro area's manufacturing sector saw renewed growth in April, supported by an increase in production levels on the back of higher new orders, according to final data from S&P Global published Monday.The S&P Global Eurozone Manufacturing PMI rose to a 47-month high of 52.2 in April, matching the flash estimate, compared with the previous month's 51.6.

Germany's Manufacturing Growth Softens in April, Final PMI Data Shows

German manufacturing sector expansion eased in April as growth in both output and new orders was offset by weaker morale due to the Middle East conflict, S&P Global said Monday.The final headline S&P Global Germany manufacturing PMI slipped to 51.4, from the 46-month high of 52.2 in March. The flash estimate for April stood at 51.2.

Italian Manufacturing PMI Hits Four-year High in April

Operating conditions in Italy's manufacturing sector improved the most in April in four years as producers ramped up output even as the Middle East conflict impacted demand, supply chain, and costs, S&P Global said Monday.The S&P Global Italy manufacturing PMI rose to a four-year high of 52.1 in April from 51.3 in March, against the consensus estimate of 51.9.

Final PMI: French Manufacturing Sector Growth Accelerates in April Amid New Orders

France's manufacturing sector activity accelerated in April, as a "strong rise" in new orders fueled higher production levels despite intensifying price pressures, S&P Global data showed Monday.The final France Manufacturing PMI climbed to 52.8 from 50 in March 2026, in line with the flash estimate. Reaching its highest point since May 2022, the reading signals "solid improvement" within the French manufacturing sector.

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Asia Week Ahead: PMI Reports; Central Bank Decisions; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with S&P Global's monthly purchasing managers' index reports, inflation prints, and central bank decisions across the region.Monday brings a slate of S&P Global manufacturing PMI reports for April, alongside Indonesia's inflation and trade figures.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, while Thailand and the Philippines release April inflation data.Wednesday features South Korea's April inflation print and New Zealand's first-quarter labor-market report, along with PMI readings from India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore.On Thursday, Malaysia's central bank decision will be in focus, alongside Taiwan's April inflation data and the Philippines' first-quarter GDP report.On Friday, Taiwan's April trade data and Malaysia's March industrial production figures will be due, before China closes out the week with April trade figures on Saturday.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 4The week kicked off with a slate of S&P Global purchasing managers' index reports covering manufacturing activity during April.Most economies in the region saw a rise in output despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which has pushed oil prices upwards.Malaysia's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in four years in April, supported by stronger output and a return to growth in new orders.The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in April from 50.7 in March, marking a second straight month of expansion.Output grew at the fastest pace since December 2021, while new orders increased as firms and clients built safety stocks amid uncertainty linked to the Middle East war.Output activity also expanded in South Korea, India, and Taiwan, according to S&P Global.Meanwhile, Vietnam's manufacturing sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace.The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 in April from 51.2 in March, a seven-month low, signalling a tenth straight month of expansion but only marginal growth.In contrast, Indonesia's manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in April as cost pressures intensified due to material shortages and delays linked to the Middle East conflict.The S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.1 in April from 50.1 in March, dropping below the 50 mark for the first time in nine months.Manufacturing activity similarly slipped in the Philippines as new orders fell sharply and cost pressures intensified.Indonesia released inflation figures, noting a 2.4% year on year rise in prices during April -- slower than the 3.5% recorded a month prior.The island state also booked a trade surplus of $5.55 billion in the first quarter, supported by a strong non-oil and gas balance despite higher import growth, according to official data released by Statistics Indonesia.The Melbourne Institute released its monthly inflation gauge, noting another increase in April, mainly driven by higher recreation-related prices. The monthly cost of living also increased in April, especially for employees and self-funded retirees.TUESDAY, May 5An interest rate decision in Australia will capture headlines on Tuesday.The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to rate hikes by 25 basis points to 4.35% as persistent inflation pressures and rising fuel costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions keeps the central bank on a hawkish path even as global peers hold steady.Thailand and the Philippines will release inflation data for April.Economists at ING said they expect the Philippines' headline inflation to rise above 5% as the government passes on the impact of higher global oil prices onto consumers. The Philippines' inflation climbed to 4.1% in March.Thailand is similarly expected to see a rise in consumer prices during April. According to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics, headline inflation could clock in at 1.7% on an annual basis, compared with a 0.08% decline in March.First-quarter gross domestic growth data will be due in Indonesia. DBS said it was forecasting 5.6% growth for the quarter thanks to government spending and festive spending during the period, the Wall Street Journal reported.Hong Kong will similarly release its first-quarter advance GDP growth estimate on Tuesday.Meanwhile, March retail sales figures will be expected in Singapore.On the activity front, S&P Global will release PMI reports manufacturing activity in Thailand and services and composite activity in Australia.WEDNESDAY, May 6Another inflation print, this time in South Korea.Economists at ING said they expect consumer prices to rise at a faster pace in April despite attempts by Seoul to rein in the impact of rising oil costs on consumers. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated headline inflation could clock in at 2.6%.In March, South Korea's annual inflation rose to 2.2%, breaching the central bank's 2% target.First-quarter labor data from New Zealand will also be in the news.CommBank expects headline labor-market figures to remain weak, forecasting just 0.1% quarterly employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5.5%, compared with Trading Economics consensus estimates of 0.3% employment growth and a 5.4% jobless rate for the first quarter."We do not envisage a labor market recovery until 2027, reflective of adverse impacts from geopolitical ructions," CommBank said in a preview.The Philippines will similarly release labor data for March, as well as industrial production figures.ING said it expects unemployment to edge higher. "On the industry side, weak soft construction activity should continue to weigh on growth," ING said.Additional S&P Global PMI reports covering services and composite activity in India and China, as well as overall activity in Hong Kong and Singapore, will be due.A business confidence report will be due in Thailand, while Hong Kong's March retail sales figures will also be on display.THURSDAY, May 7Malaysia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision, with no change expected in the 2.75% policy rate.RHB Bank said it expects Bank Negara Malaysia to hold rates as growth remains steady and inflation remains in check, the Wall Street Journal reported.Taiwan's April inflation print will be due, with analysts looking for signs on how the Iran war was weighing in on prices. ING said it expects to see inflationary pressure picking up after limited pass through of energy prices in March.Australia will release March trade figures. The country's trade surplus could fall to A$4.45 billion from the A$5.69 billion recorded in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.CommBank said it expects the goods trade balance to decline due to rising fuel imports in the wake of the Iran conflict.The Philippines' first-quarter GDP growth figures will be expected. ING said the Philippines' economy could recover to a growth of 4.3% year on year thanks to favorable base effects and some pick-up in government spending.The Philippines' economy grew by 3% last quarter.Another confidence report covering consumer sentiment will be due in Thailand.FRIDAY, May 8Markets will be on the lookout for Taiwan's trade data for April.ING said it expects the island state's trade surplus to rise to $21.6 billion from $21.3 billion in the month prior. "We're looking for another strong month, with 59.3% YoY export growth and 35.5% import growth," ING said in a preview.In Malaysia, March industrial production figures will be due.S&P Global will release PMI reports covering services and composite activity in Japan.SATURDAY, May 9China will release its April trade data on Saturday.The world's second largest economy could record a surplus of $82.4 billion for the month, rising from $51.13 billion in March, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Analysts at DBS expect a sharp uptick in surplus, with export growth more than doubling to 8.4% from the 2.5% rise seen in March, the WSJ reported.

Swiss Manufacturing PMI Climbs in April

Switzerland's manufacturing PMI increased to 54.5 in April from 53.3 in March, according to procure.ch and UBS data published Monday.The consensus estimate for the month stood at 52.

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S&P: Spanish Manufacturing Sector Rebounds in April

Spain's manufacturing sector conditions improved in April 2026 for the first time since November 2025, thanks to output growth and a "broad stabilisation" of new orders, S&P Global said Monday.The seasonally adjusted S&P Global Spain manufacturing PMI rose to 51.7 from 48.7 a month earlier, against the consensus estimate of 49.5. The survey noted further inflation and supply chain disruptions due to the Iran war.

KOF: Swiss Employment Indicator Remains Positive for Q2 Despite Iran War

Swiss businesses maintained a steady employment outlook for the second quarter, despite rising energy costs and global supply chain volatility triggered by the Iran conflict, the KOF Swiss Economic Institute said Monday.The KOF employment indicator rose to 2.2 points from the revised 2.1 points in the first quarter, slightly higher than the long-term average of 1.7 points. Meanwhile, the net balance of employment expectations for the next three months remained at 2.9 points, with more companies planning to hire rather than reduce their headcount.On a sectoral level, the employment outlook brightened within the wholesale and manufacturing segments, even as both segments remain in contraction territory. Conversely, the outlook for hospitality, retail, and other services softened slightly.

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Indonesia's Producer Prices Rise 3.2% in Q1

Indonesia's producer price index across nine sectors rose 3.15% annually in the first quarter, according to data released by Statistics Indonesia on Monday.The pace of expansion accelerated from the 2.8% increase in the fourth quarter of 2025.On a quarter-over-quarter basis, the index climbed 1.7% from Q4 2025.The mining and quarrying sector recorded the sharpest annual increase, up 6.44%, alongside a strong 7.46% quarter-on-quarter gain. Agriculture, manufacturing, and transportation also posted steady growth in producer prices over the year.Other sectors showed moderate increases, including electricity and gas, accommodation and food services, education, and health. The water management sector rose 3.85% annually, the data showed.

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Ifo: German Automotive Businesses Become More Negative About Outlook in April

Morale across the German automotive industry weakened in April, as the Iran war made companies more pessimistic about the coming months despite a better assessment of their current business situation.The business climate indicator dropped to -23.8 points from -19.0 points in March, the ifo Institute said Monday. Business expectations declined to -30.7 points from -15.3 points.The ifo business survey also showed that automotive companies facing a shortage of key intermediate products like helium grew to 9.3% in April, from 1% in March. Meanwhile, businesses expect high energy prices to impact car purchases.

India's Manufacturing Activity Quickens Pace in April; Growth Remains Weak

India's manufacturing activity gathered pace in April, with the seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rising to 54.7 in April from 53.9 in March, according to data released by S&P Global on Monday.Manufacturing activity was driven by strong exports, with only mild recoveries in new business intake and production among Indian manufacturers. The rates of increase were still the second-weakest since 2022.Input costs and output charges rose at the fastest rates in 44 and six months, respectively, putting pressure on manufacturing growth."Survey participants indicated that advertising and demand resilience supported sales and production, but that growth was hampered by competitive conditions, the war in the Middle East, and a reluctance among clients to approve pending quotes," the report said.The bright spot in the scenario was the sharp expansion in export orders, which hit a seven-month high, buoyed by higher demand from clients in countries, including Australia, France, Japan, Kenya, mainland China, Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and the UK."Spillovers from the Middle East conflict are becoming more evident, particularly through inflation: input costs increased at the fastest pace since August 2022, and output prices rose at the quickest rate in six months," Pranjul Bhandari, Chief India Economist at HSBC, said. "Even so, output, new orders (including exports), and employment all grew moderately, pointing to continued resilience in India's manufacturing sector".Even as outstanding business volumes saw only a marginal rise, the rate of job creation was the strongest in ten months.The overall level of positive sentiment among manufacturers slipped since March; however, it was the second-highest since November 2024, on the hopes that marketing efforts will yield results and that pending projects will be approved.

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Australian State Economies to Diverge as National Growth Slows Down Into 2027, Westpac Says

Australian states' economic performances are poised to diverge as national growth slows down through 2026 and into 2027, Westpac said in a Monday report.The mining-based states of Queensland and Western Australia are once again expected to lead other regions as higher energy prices help drive sizeable income windfalls, which should provide a cushion for households against tighter financial conditions and help keep overall activity relatively resilient.The bank expects gross state product (GSP) growth in Queensland to slow to a year‑average pace of 1.8% in 2027 from 2.6% in 2026, accelerating to around 2% in 2028, with Olympics‑related infrastructure spending reinforcing momentum, the bank said.Like Queensland, higher dwelling prices are anticipated to support near-term demand through wealth effects in Western Australia, where Westpac expects GSP growth to moderate to 1.8% in 2027 from around 2.4% in 2026 before picking up to 2.4% in 2028.South Australia is also relatively well-positioned, given strength in both public and private activity, the bank said.However, the consumption-led states of New South Wales and Victoria are expected to underperform, with Victoria being the only state where consumption per capita is anticipated to fall below 2019 levels by 2028, Westpac said.The bank expects New South Wales' GSP growth to slow to just 0.8% in 2027 from around 1.9%, and forecasts Victoria's growth to reach 0.7% in 2027 from around 2% in 2026."While rate cuts in 2028 should eventually stabilize conditions, the longer the global shock persists, the deeper and more uneven the adjustment across states is likely to be," Westpac said.

Indonesia's Inflation Eases to 2.42% in April

Indonesia's consumer prices rose 2.42% annually in April, with the Consumer Price Index (CPI) at 111.09, according to data released by Statistics Indonesia on Monday.The latest inflation rate, however, slowed from 3.48% in March.Monthly, inflation stood at 0.13%, while year-to-date inflation reached 1.06%, indicating relatively contained price pressures compared with earlier months.Core inflation, which excludes volatile items, rose 2.44%, while monthly, it edged up 0.23%, the data showed.

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'Inevitable Market Reckoning' Coming for Oil Supply Through Either Higher Prices or Product Shortages, ANZ Research Says

Several factors are shielding oil prices from the extensive supply disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict; however, an "inevitable market reckoning" is coming, through higher prices or product shortages, according to a Monday report by ANZ Research.In physical markets, there have been few signs of an oil supply crisis, particularly in the US, where commercial crude oil stocks stand at 456,000 barrels in the week ending April 24, which is 24,000 barrels higher than at the same period a year ago.High inventory levels in Asia have also helped buffer supply losses, with China's crude oil reserves estimated to be around 1.7 billion barrels. This has been aided by demand rationing and strategic reserve releases.Overall, oil production from the Persian Gulf fell by 10.7 million barrels per day over the February-March period. Over 15 million barrels per day are being held off the market, and cumulative losses are approaching 1 billion barrels. Global crude oil inventories fell by nearly 200 million barrels in April, and the June quarter will see the largest quarterly crude inventory drawdown in history at 6.5 million barrels per day.The bank's global oil market balance shows a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day for 2026, which assumes rising supply and weak demand in the December quarter. Its outlook for supply is based on a gradual recovery starting in June and progressing through to the end of the year. Under this scenario, damage to supply will linger, with the recovery in Persian Gulf supply being asymmetric.If the supply crunch starts to ease in the second half of the year, both in terms of flows through the strait and the restart of upstream production, the ongoing threat of a sudden closure of the strait would keep a geopolitical risk premium embedded in prices, which would keep Brent crude oil above $90 per barrel for the remainder of the year and elevated prices would remain a feature of the oil market into 2027.If the conflict persists and supplies remain disrupted, prices would likely surge towards $200 per barrel. If the US and Iran reach a peace deal, and the Strait of Hormuz is reopened, Brent crude could fall to around $83 per barrel to $87 per barrel.

Indonesia's Exports, Imports Rise in Q1

Indonesia booked a trade surplus of $5.55 billion in the first quarter, supported by a strong non-oil and gas balance despite higher import growth, according to official data released by Statistics Indonesia on Monday.Exports in the first quarter rose 0.34% annually to $66.9 billion, while imports climbed 10.05% to $61.30 billion.In March alone, exports fell 3.1% from a year earlier to $22.53 billion, while imports edged up 1.5% to $19.21 billion, the data showed.

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International52d ago

Australian Capital City Housing Prices Post Softest Monthly Rise Since January 2025, ANZ Research Says

Australia's housing market continued to slow in April as capital city housing prices inched 0.2% higher to register their weakest monthly result since January 2025, ANZ Research said in a Monday report.All capital cities posted softer month-over-month results, with higher rates and worsening sentiment notably flowing through to the Sydney and Melbourne markets, where housing prices declined 0.6% in April."More expensive properties in Sydney and Melbourne fell 1.2% [month over month] in April and have declined for six consecutive months," the firm said.Prices in Adelaide, Brisbane, Darwin and Perth all increased by over 1% in April, while those in Canberra and Hobart were relatively flat, according to the report.Building approvals slid roughly 11% in March after a marked rise in February, and ANZ Research said it expects approvals to decelerate further going forward as elevated materials costs exacerbate broader feasibility concerns for the sector.

International52d ago

ANZ-Indeed Australian Job Ads Fall in April

The ANZ-Indeed Australian job ads fell 0.8% month on month in April to a seasonally adjusted 113.3, following a revised 3.2% decrease to 114.2 in March, ANZ reported Monday.ANZ economist Aaron Luk noted that the unemployment rate held steady at 4.3% in March, suggesting labor market conditions remain "tight" but are not as strong as earlier in the year when unemployment fell to 4.1%, likely prompting the Reserve Bank of Australia to soften its recent assessment.Labor market conditions are expected to soften in the coming months as higher interest rates and rising global uncertainty reduce demand for workers, with the unemployment rate forecast to average 4.5% by the final quarter of the year, Luk added.Indeed senior economist Callam Pickering said that the decline in the job market in April was driven by sharp drops in food preparation, education, installation and maintenance, and retail roles, while the tech sector remained strong despite concerns about the adoption of artificial intelligence.Regionally, weaker demand in New South Wales and Victoria dragged down the national total, while South Australia saw gains and Western Australia continued to show the strongest labor demand over the past year, Pickering added.Compared with the year-earlier period, job ads fell 1.4% in April, per the report.