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Federal Reserve Watch for Sept. 21: Goolsbee Hints at More Rate Hikes if Inflation is Demand-Driven

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee (nonvoter) said that strong demand could also be driving inflation and that the Fed's job of lower the pace of price growth back down to the 2% goal may necessitate further rate increases that could negatively impact employment and economic growth.Recent comments of note:(Sept. 18) Kansas City Fed President Jeffrey Schmid (nonvoter) said that he agreed with the FOMC's decision to raise the target for federal funds rate by 25 basis points, saying that inflation remains elevated.(Sept. 16) Fed Chair Kevin Warsh said that inflation remains elevated while the labor markets is strong, leading the FOMC to act to slow inflation at is meeting. Warsh repeated that the labor market remains strong and the economy as a whole is strengthening, putting the emphasis on lowering inflation.(Sept. 16) At its meeting, the Federal Open Market Committee voted 12-0 to raise the target range for its federal funds to 3.75% to 4.00% saying that inflation remains elevated and raising the target range will "support a timelier return to the Committee's 2% goal." The updated Summary of Economic Projections suggested a further rate increase is possible for 2026, followed by no adjustment in 2027 before the rate is reduced in 2028. However, nearly half of the participants said one more increase may be needed in 2027, so the median could shift at the next update.

International9h ago

S&P: UK Consumer Sentiment Hits Three-month Low in September

Consumer confidence in the UK declined to a three-month low in September amid rising expectations that the Bank of England would tighten its monetary policy due to volatility in energy markets.The S&P Global UK Consumer Sentiment Index edged down to 42.7 in September from 42.9 in August, according to a survey by S&P Global released Monday.Sentiment regarding the labor market is at its lowest level in 3.5 years as households became increasingly insecure about their jobs. Demand for unsecured borrowing also rose during the month as access to credit deteriorated further.

FTSE 100

International9h ago

August Chicago Fed National Activity Index Falls As Expected

The Chicago Federal Reserve Bank's monthly National Activity Index fell to a reading of minus 0.04 in August from 0.08 in July, as expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The three-month moving average rose to 0.01 from minus 0.01.Of the 85 individual indicators, 39 made positive contributions to the index in August, while 46 made negative contributions. Some 34 indicators improved in the month, while 49 indicators deteriorated and two were unchanged.

International9h ago

August Chicago Fed National Activity Index -0.04 Vs. -0.04 Expected, 0.08 Prior

International10h ago

India's Core Sectors Log 4.8% Growth in August

India's Index of Core Industries (ICI) provisionally increased by 4.8% year over year in August, compared with 5% in July, according to data released Monday.The Ministry of Commerce and Industry's Office of the Economic Adviser said the production of cement, electricity, iron ore, steel, and refinery products saw growth of 12.5%, 11.6%, 5.5%, 3.4%, and 2.6%, respectively.On the other hand, coal, natural gas, crude oil, and fertilizers recorded negative growth in the month.The cumulative growth rate of ICI during April-August stood at 4.3% according to provisional estimates, up from 2.4% a year prior.

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International10h ago

US Dollar Rises Early Monday Ahead of Chicago National Index

The US dollar rose against its major trading partners early Monday ahead of the Chicago Federal Reserve's national activity index for August at 8:30 am ET.Tuesday's highlights include the Philadelphia Fed's nonmanufacturing index for September, weekly Redbook same-store sales data, and the Richmond Fed's business conditions readings for September.Weekly mortgage applications, oil stocks data, and the S&P Global flash readings of manufacturing and services for September are due to be released on Wednesday.Weekly jobless claims and natural gas stocks data, current account data for Q2, and new home sales for August will be the main readings on Thursday.Friday's highlights will include durable goods orders for August and the final University of Michigan consumer sentiment reading for September.A quick summary of foreign exchange activity heading into Monday:EUR/USD fell to 1.1480 from 1.1488 at the Friday US close but was above a level of 1.1465 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Eurozone data on Monday's schedule, but European Central Bank President Christine Lagarde is due to speak at 11:00 am ET. The next European Central Bank meeting is scheduled for Oct. 29.GBP/USD fell to 1.3387 from 1.3396 at the Friday US close but was above a level of 1.3353 at the same time Friday morning. There are no UK data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of England meeting is scheduled for Nov. 5.USD/JPY rose to 157.2521 from 156.7551 at the Friday US close but was below a level of 157.7642 at the same time Friday morning. There were no Japanese data released overnight. The next Bank of Japan meeting is scheduled for Oct. 30.USD/CAD rose to 1.4009 from 1.3989 at the Friday US close but was below a level of 1.4014 at the same time Friday morning. There are no Canadian data on Monday's schedule. The next Bank of Canada meeting is scheduled for Oct. 28.

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International12h ago

Hong Kong's Current Account Surplus Rises in Q2

Hong Kong booked a current account surplus of HK$96 billion, or 11.4% of gross domestic product, in the second quarter, according to data from the city's census and statistics department released Monday.The figure was higher than the HK$36.4 billion in the first quarter and beating the forecast of HK$75.1 billion recorded by Trading Economics. The year-ago figure reached HK$93.1 billion, or 11.8% of GDP.Hong Kong's goods deficit widened to HK$59.1 billion in the quarter from HK$38.3 billion a year earlier, while services logged a surplus of HK$38.5 billion, up from HK$30.9 billion a year earlier.The balance of payments surplus was HK$54.6 billion, equivalent to 6.5% of GDP for the three-month period.

Hang Seng

International12h ago

Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions; Flash PMI reports; Inflation Prints

For this week in Asia, the economic calendar features various macro releases across the region.Monday brings China's central bank decision on its one- and five-year loan prime rates (LPR).On Tuesday, Taiwan will post its unemployment rate and export orders for August, while markets will turn to Indonesia's interest rate decision on Wednesday.Investors also await India's flash PMI, as well as Hong Kong and Singapore's inflation numbers due to arrive mid week.Thursday features Japan's flash PMI, trade data from Hong Kong, and Singapore's manufacturing activity.The week will close with Singapore's industrial production for August.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, Sept. 21The People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept its benchmark lending rates at record lows at its monthly fixing on Sunday. The one-year LPR was held at 3%, while the five-year LPR was held at 3.5%.Elsewhere, Singapore's unemployment rate fell to 1.9% in the second quarter, lower than the government's preliminary estimate of 2%.India will post its infrastructure output for August later today.TUESDAY, Sept. 22Taiwan will release export orders and unemployment rate numbers for August.Export order growth is projected to edge down to 60.9% from 61.9% previously.WEDNESDAY, Sept. 23Experts at ING project Indonesia to keep its benchmark rate steady at 5.75%, while also maintaining its projection of a 25 basis point hike in the fourth quarter.The projection stems from renewed pressure on the Indonesian rupiah as the U.S. dollar strengthens, external balances remain weak, and foreign exchange reserves dwindle.Bank Indonesia's Governor Destry Damayanti is expected to highlight various risks including a restrictive financial environment globally and geopolitical tensions, according to DBS economists. However, the domestic economy remains somewhat resilient.Taiwan's industrial output for the month of August may see a year over year boost to 29.4%, according to ING forecasts.Singapore will publish inflation numbers, with headline inflation expected to edge up to 2.3% in August from 2.2% previously, economists at ING projected. Core CPI will likely increase to 2.1% from 2%.Hong Kong will also post inflation data, with CPI expected to increase slightly to 1.8% in August from 1.7% in the previous month as consumption sentiment strengthens, DBS projections showed.Elsewhere, India's HSBC flash PMI will arrive, as well as South Korea's consumer confidence numbers.THURSDAY, Sept. 24Hong Kong will publish import and export data for August, with export growth projected at 53.2% year over year in August from 50.7% in July, according to a DBS forecast. Import growth is also estimated to remain strong.Japan's S&P Global flash PMI will arrive, as well as Singapore's manufacturing output.FRIDAY, Sept. 25Singapore will post industrial production data for the month of August.

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International13h ago

Value of China's Grain Industry Output to Top 4.5 Trillion Yuan in 2026-2030

China's grain industry is expected to generate an annual industrial output value exceeding 4.5 trillion yuan during the 15th Five-Year Plan period (2026-2030), China's state media Xinhua News reported Monday.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International16h ago

RBA Now Expected to Hike Cash Rate by 25 Basis Points at September Meeting, CBA Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) is expected to hike the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.6% at its Sept. 28 to Sept. 29 meeting, driven by a combination of higher oil prices and stronger-than-expected economic data, Commonwealth Bank of Australia (ASX:CBA) said in a report on Monday.The lender's previous forecast was for a rate hike in November once the full quarterly consumer price index (CPI) confirmed the materialization of upside risks to inflation, its Head of Australian Economics Belinda Allen said.However, a rate increase beyond the projected one in September is not CBA's base case at the moment, and a move to 4.85% would represent a significant shift towards prioritizing inflation risks and could produce a larger hit to economic growth and house prices. The bank continues to expect 50 basis points of interest rate cuts in 2027, with the first reduction now forecast for August 2027, rather than May 2027, followed by another in November 2027.Brent crude oil climbed to over $100 per barrel from around $80 in recent weeks, increasing the risk of higher petrol and diesel prices impacting inflation. Recent economic data has also remained stronger than the central bank's expectations, including inflation figures and gross domestic product growth. Recent comments from senior central bank officials also focus on inflation risks.CBA expects the upcoming labor force figures to show a steady unemployment rate.

ASX 200

International16h ago

RBNZ Expected to Lift Cash Rate to 3.5% Peak With Additional Hikes in February, March 2027, Says ANZ

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points in October, followed by two further hikes pencilled in for February and March, taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%, the upper end of the central bank's range of estimates for the neutral rate, according to a Monday note by ANZ.The bank said the three main drivers behind the change in forecast are higher oil prices, a lower exchange rate, and a better starting point for the economy than the RBNZ had assumed.ANZ said the updated track balances upside and downside risks to medium-term inflation, though it does not mean downside risks have gone away, with the higher oil price intensifying both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.

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International17h ago

RBA Expected to Hike Rates in September and November, Lifting Cash Rate to 4.85%, ANZ Says

The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in September, in addition to the 25 basis point hike already expected for November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, according to a Monday note by ANZ.The bank said the September vote is likely to be split, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's apparent preference to move at meetings accompanying its Statement on Monetary Policy in February, May, August and November, following the release of quarterly inflation data.ANZ said it views a September move as an addition to, rather than a replacement for, a November rate hike.

ASX 200

International17h ago

Singapore's Unemployment Rate Falls to 1.9% in Q2, Beating Early Estimates

Singapore's unemployment rate fell to 1.9% in the second quarter of 2026 from the previous quarter, falling from the government's preliminary estimate of 2.0%, according to final data released Monday by the Ministry of Manpower.The final reading also came in below the Trading Economics forecast of 2.0%.Total employment grew by 11,400 in the second quarter, an acceleration from the 9,400 positions added in the first quarter, and higher than the 10,400 jobs added during the same period a year earlier.

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International17h ago

South Korea's Greenhouse Gas Emissions Decline 0.9% in 2025

South Korea's greenhouse gas emissions declined 0.9%, or 6.1 million tons, to 685.71 million tons in 2025 from a year earlier, the Ministry of Climate, Energy and Environment said Monday.Emissions fell year-on-year in the industrial, transportation, agriculture, fisheries and waste sectors, while increasing in the electricity, building and refrigerant sectors, the release said.

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International17h ago

China's Smart Glasses Sales More Than Double in January-August

China's consumer market continued to grow in the first eight months, with smart-glasses sales on major online platforms more than doubling from a year earlier.Sales of electrocardiogram monitors increased 75%, while action cameras rose 26.9%, the Ministry of Commerce said Sunday.Spending on services continued to gain momentum, with service-related retail sales increasing 4.9% in January-August.Tourism, cultural and recreational services saw particularly strong demand during the summer travel season, highlighting a broader shift toward spending on both goods and services.Sales of petroleum products declined 6.1% over the period amid the growing use of new-energy alternatives, the ministry said.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International18h ago

New Zealand Credit Card Spending, Balances Rise Slightly in August

Credit card spending in New Zealand rose by 0.2% month-over-month to NZ$4.46 billion in August, while credit card balances increased 0.3% to NZ$5.94 billion, data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Monday.Compared with the year-earlier period, credit card spending climbed 3.5% in August, while credit card balances declined 1.2%.Domestic billings on New Zealand-issued cards rose by 0.4% to NZ$3.93 billion in August, following a 0.9% increase in the previous month. Billings on overseas-issued cards rose month-over-month to NZ$528 million from NZ$522 million, while overseas billings on New Zealand-issued cards fell to NZ$768 million from NZ$822 million.

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International18h ago

Rightmove: UK Residential Asking Prices Rise 0.7% MoM in September

Average newly listed asking prices in the UK increased 0.7% month over month in September, after a 2% decline in August, according to data from property portal Rightmove published Monday.The latest reading represented the first monthly price growth since May.On a yearly basis, average asking house prices in the UK were down 0.8%, after a 1% fall in the previous month.

FTSE 100

International18h ago

Real GDP Growth Forecast Accuracy Varies; Differences Rarely 'Statistically Significant,' Research Says

One forecaster generally outperformed another when evaluating the accuracy of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations among forecasting organizations for individual economies, but the differences are often not "statistically significant," according to a research discussion paper released by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday.The researchers studied the properties of real GDP forecasts by four international organizations, comprising the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.The findings suggest that the differences may result from chance rather than indicate better forecasting ability.Conversely, the researchers found statistically significant deviations from forecast rationality for each forecaster, with common reasons including optimistic bias, excessive revisions, and extreme forecasts.

ASX 200

International21h ago

China Keeps Benchmark Lending Rates at Record Lows For 16th Month in September

The People's Bank of China (PBOC) kept its benchmark lending rates at record lows at its monthly fixing on Sunday, in line with the consensus forecast tracked by Investing.com.The one-year loan prime rate (LPR), which serves as the benchmark for most corporate and household loans, was held at 3%.Meanwhile, the five-year LPR, the reference rate for residential mortgages, was maintained at 3.5%.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

International21h ago

China's Foreign Direct Investments Fall at Softer Rate in January-August

Foreign direct investment into China fell 5.3% year over year in the first eight months of 2026 to 479.95 billion yuan, according to data released by the Ministry of Commerce on Friday.The pace of drop was softer than the 6.2% contraction in the first seven months of the year. Trading Economics had predicted a 5.8% drop.During the period, 42,582 new foreign-invested companies were established in China, up 0.3% from a year earlier.By industry, FDI in the manufacturing sector hit 119.55 billion yuan, while the services sector attracted 350.42 billion yuan.

Shanghai Composite^SZSE

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International12h ago

Asia Week Ahead: Rate Decisions; Flash PMI reports; Inflation Prints

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