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Real GDP Growth Forecast Accuracy Varies; Differences Rarely 'Statistically Significant,' Research Says

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One forecaster generally outperformed another when evaluating the accuracy of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations among forecasting organizations for individual economies, but the differences are often not "statistically significant," according to a research discussion paper released by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday.

The researchers studied the properties of real GDP forecasts by four international organizations, comprising the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.

The findings suggest that the differences may result from chance rather than indicate better forecasting ability.

Conversely, the researchers found statistically significant deviations from forecast rationality for each forecaster, with common reasons including optimistic bias, excessive revisions, and extreme forecasts.

What else is happening in International?

International

Daily Roundup of Key US Economic Data for Sept. 18

August industrial production held steady after a 0.2% gain in July, with manufacturing production down 0.3% overall and down 0.2% excluding a 1.2% drop in motor vehicle and parts production.Utilities output rose by 1.8% on a large increase in electricity production that was partially offset by a decline in natural gas production. Mining production increased by 0.1%.The index of leading indicators fell by 0.1% in August after a 0.2% gain in July, with negative contributions from four components, led by a large drop in business conditions expectations, and positive contributions from four components, particularly stocks and the interest rate spread.State unemployment data for August showed lower unemployment rates in eight states and Washington, DC, with steady rates elsewhere.The Q3 GDPnow estimate from the New York Fed is for a 2.33% gain, up from a 2.26% increase in the previous estimate.

International

Cargo Traffic to Los Angeles Port Expected to Fall in Week Ending Oct. 3

Cargo traffic at the Port of Los Angeles is expected to fall in the week ending Oct. 3, according to data from ship-tracking system Port Optimizer.A total of 143,091 20-foot equivalent units, a standardized measure of cargo capacity, are projected to reach the port in the week, the data showed. That reflects a 7.3% drop from the previous week and a 53% jump from a year earlier.Twenty-five freight vessels are scheduled to arrive at the port in the week ending Oct. 3, the data showed. That compares with 20 vessels scheduled this week and 25 in the week ending Sept. 26.The US government may delay announcing new tariffs on China and other trading partners until after the Thursday meeting between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping, Bloomberg reported, citing people familiar with the matter.

International

August Unemployment Rate Fall Eight States and Washington DC

State-level data released by the Bureau of Labor Statistics Friday showed the unemployment rate fell in eight states and Washington DC in August but held steady elsewhere.The largest unemployment rate declines were in Pennsylvania, Louisiana, Nevada, Mississippi and Washington, DC where it fell by 0.2 percentage point in each state. South Dakota had the lowest rate at 2% while Washington DC had the highest at 5.7%.The national unemployment rate was reported at 4.1% in August, the same as in July.Nonfarm payrolls rose in four states and were little changed elsewhere.The largest payrolls gain in absolute terms was in California, which added 39,400 jobs, followed by Wisconsin with 11,800.