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RBA Expected to Hike Rates in September and November, Lifting Cash Rate to 4.85%, ANZ Says

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The Reserve Bank of Australia is expected to raise the cash rate by 25 basis points in September, in addition to the 25 basis point hike already expected for November, which would take the cash rate to 4.85%, its highest level since 2008, according to a Monday note by ANZ.

The bank said the September vote is likely to be split, reflecting the Monetary Policy Board's apparent preference to move at meetings accompanying its Statement on Monetary Policy in February, May, August and November, following the release of quarterly inflation data.

ANZ said it views a September move as an addition to, rather than a replacement for, a November rate hike.

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International

New Zealand Credit Card Spending, Balances Rise Slightly in August

Credit card spending in New Zealand rose by 0.2% month-over-month to NZ$4.46 billion in August, while credit card balances increased 0.3% to NZ$5.94 billion, data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Monday.Compared with the year-earlier period, credit card spending climbed 3.5% in August, while credit card balances declined 1.2%.Domestic billings on New Zealand-issued cards rose by 0.4% to NZ$3.93 billion in August, following a 0.9% increase in the previous month. Billings on overseas-issued cards rose month-over-month to NZ$528 million from NZ$522 million, while overseas billings on New Zealand-issued cards fell to NZ$768 million from NZ$822 million.

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International

Rightmove: UK Residential Asking Prices Rise 0.7% MoM in September

Average newly listed asking prices in the UK increased 0.7% month over month in September, after a 2% decline in August, according to data from property portal Rightmove published Monday.The latest reading represented the first monthly price growth since May.On a yearly basis, average asking house prices in the UK were down 0.8%, after a 1% fall in the previous month.

FTSE 100
International

Real GDP Growth Forecast Accuracy Varies; Differences Rarely 'Statistically Significant,' Research Says

One forecaster generally outperformed another when evaluating the accuracy of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations among forecasting organizations for individual economies, but the differences are often not "statistically significant," according to a research discussion paper released by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday.The researchers studied the properties of real GDP forecasts by four international organizations, comprising the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.The findings suggest that the differences may result from chance rather than indicate better forecasting ability.Conversely, the researchers found statistically significant deviations from forecast rationality for each forecaster, with common reasons including optimistic bias, excessive revisions, and extreme forecasts.

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