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RBNZ Expected to Lift Cash Rate to 3.5% Peak With Additional Hikes in February, March 2027, Says ANZ

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The Reserve Bank of New Zealand is expected to raise the official cash rate by 25 basis points in October, followed by two further hikes pencilled in for February and March, taking the OCR to a peak of 3.5%, the upper end of the central bank's range of estimates for the neutral rate, according to a Monday note by ANZ.

The bank said the three main drivers behind the change in forecast are higher oil prices, a lower exchange rate, and a better starting point for the economy than the RBNZ had assumed.

ANZ said the updated track balances upside and downside risks to medium-term inflation, though it does not mean downside risks have gone away, with the higher oil price intensifying both upside risks to inflation and downside risks to growth.

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International

New Zealand Credit Card Spending, Balances Rise Slightly in August

Credit card spending in New Zealand rose by 0.2% month-over-month to NZ$4.46 billion in August, while credit card balances increased 0.3% to NZ$5.94 billion, data from the Reserve Bank of New Zealand showed Monday.Compared with the year-earlier period, credit card spending climbed 3.5% in August, while credit card balances declined 1.2%.Domestic billings on New Zealand-issued cards rose by 0.4% to NZ$3.93 billion in August, following a 0.9% increase in the previous month. Billings on overseas-issued cards rose month-over-month to NZ$528 million from NZ$522 million, while overseas billings on New Zealand-issued cards fell to NZ$768 million from NZ$822 million.

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International

Rightmove: UK Residential Asking Prices Rise 0.7% MoM in September

Average newly listed asking prices in the UK increased 0.7% month over month in September, after a 2% decline in August, according to data from property portal Rightmove published Monday.The latest reading represented the first monthly price growth since May.On a yearly basis, average asking house prices in the UK were down 0.8%, after a 1% fall in the previous month.

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International

Real GDP Growth Forecast Accuracy Varies; Differences Rarely 'Statistically Significant,' Research Says

One forecaster generally outperformed another when evaluating the accuracy of real gross domestic product (GDP) growth expectations among forecasting organizations for individual economies, but the differences are often not "statistically significant," according to a research discussion paper released by the Reserve Bank of Australia on Monday.The researchers studied the properties of real GDP forecasts by four international organizations, comprising the International Monetary Fund, the World Bank, the European Commission and the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development.The findings suggest that the differences may result from chance rather than indicate better forecasting ability.Conversely, the researchers found statistically significant deviations from forecast rationality for each forecaster, with common reasons including optimistic bias, excessive revisions, and extreme forecasts.

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