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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Trims Growth Forecast As Tourism Slumps Amid Middle East Crisis

Thailand's economic growth and tourist arrivals are expected to slow this year as Middle East tensions push up global energy prices, The Star reported Wednesday, citing the finance ministry.The country's GDP growth is projected to ease to 1.6% from 2.4% in 2025, within the government's earlier forecast range of 1.5% to 2.5%. Foreign tourist arrivals are now estimated at 33.5 million, about two million fewer than previously expected, reflecting weaker inflows from Europe and the Middle East, according to the report.The ministry said the ongoing US-Israeli conflict with Iran has dampened travel demand and driven up fuel costs, weighing on the tourism sector. Visitors from the Middle East fell by a third in March from a year earlier, while European arrivals dropped about 4%, although arrivals from other Asian countries rose 6%, the news outlet said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Pushes $31 Billion Land Bridge Project Amid Global Shipping Risks

Thailand is seeking investors for a 1 trillion baht ($30.97 billion) "Land Bridge" project linking the Indian and Pacific oceans, as disruptions at the Strait of Hormuz expose vulnerabilities in global shipping routes, Reuters reported Wednesday.The government is courting partners, including Singapore, and plans to submit the proposal for cabinet approval by mid-year. The project envisions deep-sea ports in Ranong and Chumphon connected by road, rail and energy infrastructure, providing an alternative to the Strait of Malacca, reportedly.Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul discussed the plan with Singapore's Defense Minister Chan Chun Sing, who expressed interest, with the project still facing environmental and regulatory challenges, the news agency said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions; Inflation Prints; and Trade Data

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with major data releases, central bank decisions and inflation updates across the region.Monday brings China's first-quarter industrial profits data, as well as Malaysia's producer prices.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, alongside trade figures from Hong Kong and Macao, and India's March production report.Wednesday features Thailand's central bank rate decision and Australia's closely watched quarterly inflation print, while Thursday brings China's official and private PMI readings.On Friday, Japan's Tokyo core inflation reading will be in focus, along with South Korea's April trade data.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 27The week kicked off with the release of China's industrial profits data for the first quarter.The total profits of China's industrial enterprises rose 15.5% year on year to 1.696 trillion yuan during the first three months of 2026, with increases seen in the mining, manufacturing, technology, and chemical industries.A drop in profits was witnessed in the utilities industry, as well as the electricity and heat and agricultural industries, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.Singapore disclosed its manufacturing output stats for March, highlighting a 10.1% jump in production thanks to strong growth across almost all clusters.Malaysia's producer prices rose in March for the first time in a year, driven largely by a rebound in the mining sector, according to Trading Economics.Producer prices climbed 1.1% year on year, reversing a 3.4% decline in the previous month.Meanwhile, Taiwan's consumer confidence index edged up to 62.47 in April, rising 0.17 points from March.The uptick was driven by improvements in four sub-indicators, with sentiment on employment opportunities posting the largest monthly gain.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence was also due in the Philippines.TUESDAY, April 28Markets will turn their attention to an interest rate decision scheduled in Japan.The upcoming decision could be a complicated one for the Bank of Japan as it grapples with intensifying inflation domestically and the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, ING said in a preview.While markets broadly expect the central bank to maintain rates at 0.75%, ING said it continues to believe there's a chance the Bank of Japan may hike rates.Japanese unemployment data is also due the same day, with observers expecting the jobless rate to hover around the 2.6% mark, unchanged from the prior month, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Hong Kong will disclose trade stats for March. According to Trading Economics, the city state's trade deficit could narrow to HK$43 billion from the HK$64.2 billion recorded in February.Macao will similarly release balance of trade figures. The city state's trade deficit could narrow to 9.4 billion pataca in March from 9.9 billion pataca a month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.India's industrial production data for March will also be in the news. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated analysts expect India's industrial production growth to slow to a rate of 4.2% from 5.2% in February.India's manufacturing weakened in March as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, unstable market conditions, and inflationary pressures impacted output, S&P Global said previously. However, conditions appeared to have improved in April, according to the firm's most recent flash purchasing managers' index release.South Korea's business confidence report for April will be due the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 29Thailand's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision.The Bank of Thailand is seen to hold rates steady at 1% amid softening growth and inflationary pressure due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported.Thailand's March Industrial production data is also expected on the same day.Australia's latest inflation print will be in the news, providing markets with an overview of pricing pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting.Westpac said it expects to see a 4.2% yearly gain in headline inflation for the March quarter.The quarterly data is likely to affirm for the Reserve Bank of Australia that the underlying inflation pressures are evident in the economy before the escalation of the Middle East conflict in late February, ANZ said in a preview.In Singapore, March import and export prices will be expected, as well as producer price inflation data.THURSDAY, April 30China's manufacturing and services sectors will be in focus as the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly purchasing managers' index covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMI for April.The release will be accompanied by a private reading on China's manufacturing sector from S&P Global.Economists at ING said they expect official data to show activity dipped back into contractionary territory following the expansion witnessed in March.ING forecasts manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 and the non-manufacturing PMI dipping to 49.8, and said it expects to see pricing pressure continuing to build in the PMI sub-indices.Taiwan will release its first-quarter advance gross domestic product growth rate, with markets looking for signs of whether the island state's economy can continue posting stellar growth due to its global positioning in high-precision semiconductor production.Researchers at ANZ expect Taiwan's first-quarter GDP growth rate to come in at 11.8%, slowing from the 12.7% rise witnessed in the prior quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported.In Australia, the first-quarter import and export prices data is expected. CommBank said it expects export prices to rise 1.2% while import prices to decline 0.6%, both on a quarter-on-quarter basis.Meanwhile, a confidence report due in New Zealand is likely to show a further deterioration in business sentiment due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview.Further trade data is expected in the Philippines, which could see its trade deficit widen to $4.1 billion in March from $3.68 billion in April, according to Trading Economics.Both South Korea and Japan will release industrial production and retail sales data for March.ING said it expects Japan's industrial production to "rebound quite firmly" during the month. The firm expects industrial output to rise 2.2% year on year from the 0.4% rise witnessed in February.Japan will additionally release a consumer confidence report for April, while a similar release covering business confidence will be due in Singapore.Singapore's first-quarter preliminary unemployment rate will also be released on Thursday.Thailand's February retail sales stats will be due.FRIDAY, May 1Japan's closely watched Tokyo core consumer price index for April will capture headlines, offering markets an early indicator of the overall inflation rate in the country."The Tokyo CPI is expected to rise faster in April, reflecting recent energy price hikes, a weak JPY, solid wage growth, and bi-annual price adjustments," ING said in a preview.South Korea announces April trade data.The country's trade surplus could drop marginally to $26 billion from $26.2 billion a month prior, even as exports show a 50% year on year growth due to robust chip shipments, ING said.A consumer confidence report due in New Zealand could show sentiment weakening further in April and over the coming months amid the Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview."As the conflict progresses, overall consumer confidence is expected to continue falling," CommBank said.Neighboring Australia will release first-quarter produce price data.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its PMI reports covering manufacturing activity in Australia and Japan.

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Asia

Market Chatter: Weakened Remittances Amid Middle East Conflict to Put Further Pressure on Southeast Asian Economies

Southeast Asian countries could see additional constraints from dampened remittance inflows, greater unemployment, and other spillover impacts from the Middle East war, Nikkei Asia said in a Thursday release.These pressures will add up to already rising energy prices and currency depreciation due to the conflict, the report said.Among the region's economies, the Philippines could be impacted the most as it is the largest source of migrant workers to the Middle East, reaching 1.1 million in January, according to the report.About 8.7% of the Philippines' 2024 GDP is attributed to remittances, the report cited World Bank data as saying.Remittances from overseas Filipino workers reached $2.8 billion in February, but this is expected to decline in March, according to the report.The country has repatriated about 4,200 workers from the Middle East since early March, with Thailand, Indonesia, and Singapore also doing similar actions for their citizens, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thai Prime Minister Orders Legal Review of Emergency Loan Decree

Thai Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul has issued a directive to deputy Ekniti Nitithanprapas and the Council of State to assess the legal implications of issuing an emergency loan decree and boosting Thailand's borrowing limit, according to a Wednesday report by The Bangkok Post.A loan decree could be legally feasible in current circumstances, Ekniti, who is also the country's finance minister, told the cabinet on Tuesday, according to the report.The prime minister described it as a contingency plan to counter potentially deteriorating economic conditions. However, there was no formal discussion regarding a proposed 500-billion-baht borrowing decree at the cabinet meeting, the news outlet reported.The country's public debt comes in at around 66% of GDP currently, below the 70% statutory ceiling, allowing for 800 billion baht in remaining borrowing capacity, according to the Bangkok Post.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thai Government Denies Plans to Increase VAT

The Thai government does not plan to increase value-added tax (VAT) to 10% from 7%, The Bangkok Post reported Wednesday citing deputy government spokeswoman Rachada Dhnadirek.Rachada denied reports of a hike and labelled them as misinformation, emphasizing the focus of the government on reducing the cost of living for the public, according to the report.Rachada also clarified that remarks by Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilprapunt about the government potentially bypassing bureaucratic channels to issue an emergency decree to allow substantial borrowing are merely legal in nature.Council Danucha Pichayanan, secretary-general of the National Economic and Social Development, reiterated that VAT will remain unchanged, The Bangkok Post said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Moody's Changes Thailand's Outlook to Stable from Negative

Moody's changed the outlook on the government of Thailand to stable from negative, according to a Tuesday release by rating agency.The ratings firm also affirmed the foreign and local currency issuer and local currency senior unsecured ratings at Baa1, and Thailand's foreign currency commercial paper rating at P-2.The move comes amid the easing of downside risks from a tariff shock after the US reduced levies on Thai exports to levels which are largely in line with regional peers.Risks related to higher oil prices due to the Middle East conflict are expected to weigh on growth but will be comparable to peers.

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thai Shipping Firms Summoned Amid Missing Oil Probe

Thai authorities have summoned eight shipping companies as witnesses in an investigation into missing oil shipments at sea, The Bangkok Times reported Tuesday, citing Thailand's Department of Special Investigation (DSI).The probe covers discrepancies in 20 oil cargos transported from refineries in eastern Thailand to Surat Thani, where up to 60 million liters are allegedly missing, the report said.Officials are reviewing shipping records and transport documentation to determine the cause of the irregularities. The companies have cooperated so far as investigators assess whether to upgrade the case into a formal special investigation. A separate probe is already underway into suspected oil stockpiling at a Surat Thani depot, according to the report.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Steps Up Relief Measures as Economic Pressures Mount

Thailand is ramping up cost-of-living relief measures as the economy faces pressure from Middle East tensions, VN Express reported Monday, citing Minister Suphajee Suthumpun.The government is rolling out 3,800 mobile "Pum-Puang" units to sell cheaper goods nationwide, especially in remote areas with limited market access. It is also expanding its "Blue Flag" discount program with hundreds of fairs and thousands of mobile vendors across provinces and Bangkok.In addition, a subsidized loan scheme for farmers has been introduced to ease financial strain, with interest costs shared between borrowers and the state.Officials said the combined measures aim to widen access to affordable goods and support household purchasing power, according to the news outlet.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Poised for Second Cut in Oil Fuel Prices

Thailand is preparing a second cut in oil refining margins of over 2 baht per liter, which could reduce fuel prices this week, The Bangkok Post reported Monday, citing Energy Minister, Akanat Promphan.The move follows an earlier reduction in March that lowered retail fuel costs by 2.14 baht per liter. Officials are reviewing April cost data, which showed refining margins rising sharply to around 15 baht per liter, prompting calls for adjustment, reportedly.A policy meeting is scheduled to finalize the revised rates. The review will take into account higher costs like insurance, transport, and war risks, while fuel price changes will stay gradual due to pressure on the oil fund, the news outlet said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Eyes THB500 Billion Emergency Loan as Fiscal Pressures Worsen

Thailand is preparing an emergency decree to raise up to 500 billion baht ($15.6 billion) in borrowing and address the debt ceiling amid tightening fiscal space and rising risks, Reuters reported Monday, citing Deputy Prime Minister Pakorn Nilprapunt.Public debt stands at around 66% of GDP, close to the current 70% limit, which may be raised to accommodate the planned borrowing. The government is also preparing its 2027 budget with a focus on curbing non-essential spending and managing fiscal risks, reportedly.A 3.788 trillion Thai baht budget has been approved, with a slight increase in spending and a lower projected deficit, and will be submitted for parliamentary review in July, the news agency said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Inflation; Trade Data; and Central Bank Decisions

The week ahead in Asia is packed with releases covering trade, inflation, and central bank updates which could offer markets fresh clues on how the region is navigating the conflict in the Middle East.Monday begins with trade data from New Zealand and Malaysia, as well as the release of China's loan prime rates.Attention then turns Tuesday to New Zealand's first-quarter inflation report, followed by Bank Indonesia's interest rate decision and Japan's March trade figures on Wednesday.Thursday brings another key central bank decision from the Philippines, as well as first-quarter GDP data from South Korea. Flash PMI reports from India, Japan and Australia will also be closely watched.Friday rounds off the week with Japan's March inflation data, as well as Thailand's trade report.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 20The week kicked off with the release of trade data from New Zealand and Malaysia.New Zealand recorded a goods trade surplus of NZ$698 million in March, compared with a deficit of NZ$364.7 million in February.Goods exports rose 7.3% to NZ$7.94 billion, while imports rose 9.6% to NZ$7.25 billion.Malaysia's total trade in goods rose 9.3% annually to 273 billion ringgit in March, driven by growth in both exports and imports.Exports increased 8.3% year on year to 148.8 billion ringgit, while imports rose 10.4% to 124.2 billion ringgit.China kept its loan prime rate or LPR, which is the benchmark for new loans, unchanged after posting a better-than-expected economy amid the Middle East conflict.The People's Bank of China held the one-year LPR at 3% and the LPR of five years or more at 3.5%.Economists at ING said the central bank may keep the rates on hold until conditions warrant monetary policy support. The People's Bank of China has maintained the one-year and five-year LPR since May 2025.TUESDAY, April 21New Zealand is due to report its first quarter inflation data.The country's consumer price index is anticipated to rise by 0.8% quarter on quarter and 2.9% year on year, BofA Securities estimated, slightly below the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's revised April forecast of 3%.Headline inflation is driven by soaring fuel prices in March due to the Middle East conflict, with petrol prices surging nearly 19% and diesel by nearly 43% month on month, according to the firm's research.Taiwan will release its export orders data. According to ING, the city state could see a rebound in orders to around 48.1% year on year from 23.8% previously.WEDNESDAY, April 22Indonesia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision.ING said it expects Bank Indonesia to keep its policy rate at 4.75% despite inflation running above the central bank's 2.5% target. At 3.5%, inflation is still well below the roughly 5% peak in 2022 that triggered aggressive rate hikes, and with growth softening, the central bank is likely to remain on hold, according to ING.Japan's March trade figures will also be in the news. ING said it expects strong Japanese export growth in March thanks to demand for semiconductors and IT products, pushing the country's trade surplus to 1 trillion yen from 44.3 billion yen in the month prior.Elsewhere, South Korea reports producer price inflation data for March.THURSDAY, April 23Another interest rate decision, this time in the Philippines.The island nation's economy is one of the most susceptible to oil shocks in the region, and the Bangko Sentral ng Pilipinas' upcoming decision is "likely to be close" amid the current geopolitical situation in the Middle East, ING said in a preview.Still, the firm said its base case is for the central bank to maintain rates at 4.25%.South Korea's advance estimates for GDP growth for the first quarter will also capture headlines.Most analysts expect a rebound in growth after the economy contracted in the previous quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported.Barclays economist Bumki Son said the economy is likely to show a growth of 1.2% on a quarterly basis and 3% on a yearly basis thanks to stronger exports and a recovery in private consumption and facility investment, the WSJ reported.A consumer confidence report is also due in South Korea.Hong Kong and Singapore will announce Inflation data for March.Singapore's March print will capture the initial impact of the energy shock from the Middle East conflict, the WSJ reported, citing DBS economists. According to Trading Economics, the rate of price increase could quick to 1.5% year on year from the 1.2% witnessed in February.In Hong Kong, Trading Economics expects inflation to rise marginally to 1.8% on the year from the 1.7% recorded in February.Hong Kong will also release unemployment data the same day.A number of macro releases are expected in Taiwan, covering March retail sales, industrial production, and unemployment.Similar to its export orders, ING said it expects Taiwan's industrial production to rebound to 25.7% year on year from the 17.8% growth recorded in the month prior.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its flash PMI reports covering manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Japan, and Australia.FRIDAY, April 24Markets will await March inflation data from Japan.Core inflation, which excludes fresh food but includes energy, is expected to cool to a rate of 1.8% year on year from the 2% witnessed in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.According to ING, efforts by Japan's government to stabilize gasoline prices should keep both headline and core inflation rates below 2%.March inflation data will also be due in Macao, which also reports unemployment rate the same day.Trading Economics estimates that March inflation could clock in at 1.2% year on year, modestly higher than the 1.16% witnessed in February.Unemployment, meanwhile, is expected to rise to 1.8% from 1.7% in the month prior, Trading Economics estimated.In Thailand, trade figures for March will be due.Trading Economics expects the country the post a trade deficit of $2 billion for the month, a reversal from the $2 billion surplus in February.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in the first quarter will be due in the Philippines.A business confidence report covering the second quarter will similarly be made available in Hong Kong.

ASX 200Hang Seng^JKSEFTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCIKOSPINikkei 225^NZ50^PSEI^SETShanghai Composite^STI^SZSETaiwan Weighted
Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Seeks Oman's Aid to Secure Safe Hormuz Passage

Thailand's Foreign Affairs Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow is in Oman to discuss regional security and ensure Thai cargo shipments can continue transiting the strategic waterway safely, The Bangkok Times reported Thursday.The trip, at the invitation of Omani Foreign Minister Sayyid Badr bin Hamad Al Busaidi, will cover regional security and potential diplomatic engagement, including with Iran. A key focus is to facilitate the transit of Thai shipments of oil, gas and fertilizer through the strategic shipping route, reportedly.During the visit, Sihasak will meet senior Omani defense and energy officials and thank authorities for rescuing Thai crew members and assisting in search operations for those missing. Separately, Thailand has suspended the deployment of workers to several Middle Eastern countries due to heightened security risks.Separately, the Thai embassy in Tehran has issued a warning urging nationals to prepare for possible evacuation, citing a fragile ceasefire and risk of renewed conflict.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Equities

S&P Global: Oil Shock Could Undermine Asian Pacific Bonds

About one-seventh of Asian Pacific corporate bonds outstanding could come under pressure if the Persian Gulf war and higher oil prices persist, S&P Global reported Thursday."A prolonged oil shock could undermine the credit quality of 15% of rated Asia-Pacific corporates tested under our downside scenario," advised S&P Global. "That's up from 9% under our base case of a quicker end to war."The Asia-Pacific is more exposed to a Middle-East related energy shock than most other regions, and vulnerable to "disruptions to energy and raw material supplies, demand destruction, margin compression, and working capital volatility," advised S&P Global.Nearly 90% of the crude oil shipped through the Strait of Hormuz is bound for Asia, and Persian Gulf petroleum accounts for about 40% of Asia-Pacific's energy imports, noted the credit-rating agency.In Asia, industries and enterprises that rely on jet fuel, diesel, and liquified petroleum gas (LPG) "face the highest shortage risk," reported S&P Global.Business sectors most affected include chemicals, downstream oil and gas, airlines, automobile-manufacturing, engineering and construction, and building materials.In terms of nations, South Korea, Japan, and mainland China "have largely mitigated near-term supply disruption," through use of adequate reserves, but "other countries have had to announce various measures to manage a potential energy supply crunch," said S&P Global.Not only corporates, but some sovereign bonds could be affected if high prices persist.The Philippines sovereign credit-rating was reduced to BBB+ "stable" from "positive" last week, due to exposure to oil shocks, said S&P Global.

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Asia

Market Chatter: Thailand Warns of Severe Economic Downside Amid US-Iran Conflict

Thailand's economy is facing a sharper-than-expected slowdown this year due to the Iran conflict, with "almost no limits" to worst-case scenarios if the war drags on, Thai Assistant Governor Chayawadee Chai-anant told Reuters on Thursday.She said growth in the export- and tourism-dependent economy is weakening due to higher energy costs and declining visitor arrivals. Tourism from Gulf countries has yet to recover after disruptions earlier in the year, while rising fuel costs have also dampened arrivals from Malaysia, according to the report.The central bank lowered its GDP growth projection for 2026 to 1.3%, assuming the war ends in the second half of the year, down from its December 2025 projection of 1.9%. In the same scenario, inflation is expected to reach 3.5%, the news agency reported.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: World Bank Hints at Up to $100 Billion to Aid War-Impacted Economies

The World Bank could mobilize between $80 billion and $100 billion over the next 15 months to support countries impacted by the Middle East conflict, Reuters reported Wednesday, citing President Ajay Banga.The package, which exceeds the deployment during COVID-19, would include $20 billion to $25 billion in near-term support through a crisis response window, alongside $30 billion to $40 billion from reallocating existing programs within about six months. Additional resources could be tapped from the bank's balance sheet if the conflict persists, reportedly.IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva said the outlook depends on how long the conflict continues, and urged governments to use targeted support instead of broad energy subsidies to manage higher costs, the news agency said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

IMF Lowers 2026 Growth Outlook for Most Asian Economies Amid Middle East War

The International Monetary Fund has lowered its growth estimates for most Asian economies for 2026, according to a recent release.The organization revised down its growth outlook for emerging Asian economies to 4.9% from a previous prospect of 5% in January, which was before the start of the conflict in the Middle East.Growth for the group will continue to decline to 4.8% in 2027, the IMF said.The organization projects China's economy growing 4.4% this year and 4% next year, while India will post growth of 6.5% for the next two years.Cumulative growth among Southeast Asia's five biggest economies, including Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, and Thailand, will fall to 3.7% in 2026 from 4.9%, although this will recover to 4.7% next year, the organization said.Individually, Vietnam will post the strongest growth of 7.1%, although this is still lower than the 8% growth last year.The rest of the economies in the group will also see lower growth, with Indonesia at 5%, Malaysia at 4.7%, the Philippines at 4.1%, and Thailand at 1.5%.Among advanced economies in Asia-Pacific, Korea's growth will rise to 1.9% from 1% last year, while that of Australia will remain flat at 2%.Japan's growth will slow down to 0.7% in 2026 and 0.6% in 2027 from 1.2% last year, according to the IMF.Taiwan will see lower expansion of 5.2% from 8.7% in 2025, while Singapore's growth will come to 3.5%, down from 5% last year.Hong Kong will also observe lower growth of 2.4%, compared to 3.5% in 2025.The IMF forecasts global economic growth to weaken to 3.1% this year from 3.4% last year, accounting for the impacts of the continued conflict in the Middle East.

ASX 200^BSE^DSE^HNX^HOSEHang Seng^JKSEFTSE Bursa Malaysia KLCI^KOSDAQKOSPINikkei 225Nifty 50^PSEI^SETShanghai Composite^STI^SZSETaiwan Weighted^YSX
Asia

Sovereign Rating Risks Grow for Southeast Asia Amid Middle East Conflict, S&P Says

Southeast Asia's sovereign ratings face risks from the Middle East conflict, with persistent energy disruption to weigh on their fiscal and external metrics, S&P Global Ratings said in a Tuesday release.Economies reliant on imported energy could see strains in their robust growth outlook under severe long-term effects of the war, limiting economic support for ratings in South and Southeast Asia, credit analyst Rain Yin said.Damage to the energy infrastructure in the Middle East will prolong the normalization of oil and gas production levels even with the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, S&P said.Southeast Asian sovereigns with weaker rating buffers could see their credit quality drop under persistent energy market disruption, with government subsidies for consumers and businesses possibly increasing, Yin said.The depth of the damage to sovereigns' fiscal positions will depend on the ability of governments to reduce expenses or delay spending plans, S&P said.

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Asia

Market Chatter: ASEAN Diplomats Plead US-Iran Truce as Surging Oil Prices Rattle Economies

Southeast Asian diplomats on Monday urged the U.S. and Iran to continue negotiations after failed weekend talks heightened tensions and rattled global markets, Nikkei Asian Review reported Monday.This came after Brent crude surged to $102.43 a barrel, while Asian and European equities fell following remarks from US President Donald Trump, including threats of a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. Washington later put restrictions on vessels departing Iranian ports, reportedly.ASEAN foreign ministers, meeting virtually for the second time since March 13, welcomed a recent two-week ceasefire but stressed the need for sustained dialogue to achieve lasting peace. The bloc warned that instability is particularly damaging for Southeast Asia, which relies heavily on energy imports transiting the Strait of Hormuz.Countries including Malaysia, Vietnam and Thailand have been forced to ramp up energy support measures, while the Philippines has declared an energy emergency. ASEAN also discussed setting up a crisis communication mechanism and strengthening coordination on energy and food security ahead of upcoming regional meetings, the Nikkei said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Middle East Escalation Could Cost Asia Up to $299 Billion, UNDP Warns

The ongoing military escalation in the Middle East could inflict economic losses of up to $299 billion across Asia and the Pacific, as higher fuel, freight and input costs ripple through regional economies, UNDP's latest assessment report release Tuesday showed.The report said the shock is weakening household purchasing power, increasing food insecurity, straining public budgets and undermining livelihoods, particularly in countries heavily reliant on imported energy and food, as well as those exposed to Gulf trade routes, labor markets and remittance flows.It estimated that under a 28-day disruption scenario, regional output losses could range between $97 billion and $299 billion, equivalent to 0.3% to 0.8% of GDP, with South Asia facing the most pronounced impact.Around 8.8 million people across 14 countries could fall into poverty, including more than 5 million in Iran, where the poverty rate may rise from 36% to 41.5%, according to the simulations.The report, prepared as of April 9, draws on inputs from 22 UNDP country offices covering 36 countries, alongside modelling and external data. It noted that outcomes will depend heavily on the duration and intensity of the conflict, with risks rising further if disruptions persist.

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