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Asia Week Ahead: Policy Rate Decisions, Inflation Prints and GDP Reports

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Asia's economic calendar this week features a mix of inflation data, interest rate decisions, GDP releases and industrial figures across the region.

The week opens with Singapore's GDP and inflation data, plus Thailand's trade figures, followed on Tuesday by Taiwan's industrial production and retail sales reports.

Mid-week, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision and Australia's inflation print. On Thursday, the Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision, while Hong Kong releases trade data and India reports industrial and manufacturing output figures.

Friday will be the busiest day for macro releases, led by a batch of key indicators from Japan. The week wraps up with China's PMI readings on Sunday.

Here's what to watch in the week ahead.

MONDAY, May 25

Singapore's economy grew 6.0% year over year in the first quarter, government data showed, beating the 4.6% flash estimate and accelerating from the 5.7% growth in Q4.

The expansion was driven by strong performances in the wholesale trade, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors.

Meanwhile, the city-state's annual inflation rate held steady at 1.8% in April, unchanged from March but below market expectations of 2%.

Core inflation, on the other hand, eased to 1.4% in April from 1.7% a month prior.

In Thailand, exports surged 23.1% year over year to $31.6 billion in April, accelerating from an 18.7% increase in March and beating forecasts of 16.2%.

Imports likewise strengthened, expanding 45% in April to $41.6 billion, compared with a rise of 35.7% a month prior.

As a result, the trade deficit ballooned to $10.02 billion in April from $3.3 billion a year earlier, far above forecasts of a $5.1 billion shortfall.

TUESDAY, May 26

Singapore will release its April industrial production data, while Taiwan is due to report both industrial production and retail sales figures for the month.

WEDNESDAY, May 27

New Zealand's central bank will hold its policy meeting, with analysts expecting no change to the country's official cash rate of 2.25%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.

Australia is set to release inflation figures on the same day. Consumer prices rose 4.6% year on year in March, the fastest pace since September 2023, and are expected to accelerate to 5.1% in April as oil prices climb amid the Middle East conflict.

Meanwhile, China will report its industrial profits for April. A pair of confidence reports covering business and consumer sentiment will be due in South Korea and Taiwan, respectively.

THURSDAY, May 28

The Bank of Korea is set to meet for its policy rate decision, with markets watching for any change to its current 2.5% benchmark rate amid inflation and growth pressures linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.

Hong Kong will release its monthly trade figures. The April reading could show a narrowing of the trade deficit to HK$46 billion from HK$89.1 billion in March, Trading Economics forecasted.

Meanwhile, India will report its industrial and manufacturing production data for April.

Markets will also watch New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence report for May, after the index dropped to -10.6 in April -- its first negative reading since August 2023 -- as the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment.

FRIDAY, May 29

Japan's usual end-of-month data deluge, which includes the release of inflation, unemployment rate, industrial production and retail sales, will provide insights into the country's economic health.

Markets will also watch Taiwan's final Q1 GDP growth figures for any revision from the preliminary estimate, which showed the economy expanding by 13.7%.

Other highlights include trade balance figures from Macau and the Philippines, and export and import price data from Singapore.

Both South Korea and Thailand will report their monthly industrial production and retail sales stats, while Macau will report its unemployment rate for April.

Lastly, a report capturing business confidence in April will be due in the Philippines.

SUNDAY, May 31

China, the biggest economy in Asia, will release its official May PMI data covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing and general activity.

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