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Update: US Equity Indexes Fall, Treasury Yields Jump as Fed Raises Interest Rates for First Time in Over Three Years
(Updates with index/price moves, Fed policy statements, and geopolitical news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell after the Federal Reserve unanimously raised interest rates for the first time in more than three years and forecast another move up of the same magnitude this year, sending government bond yields higher.The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% to 51,461.90, the S&P 500 declined 0.5% to 7,551.81, and the Nasdaq Composite slipped less than 0.1% to 25,978.43 on Wednesday. Energy and financials led decliners, with all but three sectors in the red.The Federal Open Market Committee raised the target range for federal funds to 3.75% to 4.00% following a 12-0 vote. This marks the first rate increase since 2023, according to Stifel Securities.Median expectations in the Summary of Economic Projections now show a further rate increase this year, as the median outlook was adjusted to 4.1% from 3.8% in the earlier June update. The SEP indicated an upward revision to inflation forecasts for 2026, with the personal consumption expenditures, or PCE, price index unlikely to fall to the Fed's 2% goal until 2029."After more than five years of significantly elevated inflation, a period which included a rate-cutting cycle, the new Warsh Fed appears to be taking a step in the right direction to combat dangerously high price pressures," Lindsey Piegza, chief economist at Stifel, said in the note. "Furthermore, with the latest SEP signaling the majority of Fed officials support some further policy firming by year-end, the Committee appears sincere in its commitment to restore price stability."Meanwhile, retail sales grew 1.2% in August following a 0.5% decline in July, the Census Bureau said. The consensus was 0.8% in a Bloomberg-compiled survey. Sales at gasoline stations jumped 3.1% after falling 0.2% the month before, while motor vehicle and parts dealers' receipts rose 0.6% following a 1.8% drop."Retail sales roared back to life in August following a disappointing performance in July," Ksenia Bushmeneva, economist at TD Economics, said in a report. "Stronger results in the volatile auto and gasoline categories, along with a rebound in online sales, played a role but were not the whole story, given the broad-based gains in core sales."US Treasury yields advanced after the Fed policy decision, turning the corner from earlier in the day. The 10-year yield climbed 2.4 basis points to 5.02%, its highest since 2007. The two-year yield soared 7.1 basis points to 4.73%, the strongest level in about three years.Oil prices fell after reports that Saudi Arabia was offering additional crude cargoes through Oman eased some concerns about Middle East supply disruptions, according to Reuters. Saudi Arabia is facilitating crude oil loadings to Asian refiners via ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port, people familiar with the matter told Reuters.Excluding inventories in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve, US commercial crude oil stocks fell by 600,000 barrels after a 400,000-barrel decline in the previous week, versus the 1.5-million-barrel drop expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg.The front-month US West Texas Intermediate crude oil contract sank 3.6% to $101.99 per barrel, and the global benchmark North Sea Brent slid 3.1 to $105.39 per barrel.Gold futures fell 0.7% to $4,303.6, and silver futures rose 0.6% to $66.46.J.B. Hunt Transport Services (JBHT) expects earnings from Q2 to Q3 to fall 5% to 10%, Chief Financial Officer Brad Delco said Tuesday on a conference call. The company faced "one of the most acute changes in the cost of purchased transportation," with intra-quarter spot rates rising 30%, Delco said. Shares sank 13%, among the worst performers in the S&P 500.
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