Update: US Equity Indexes Soar, Crude Oil Sinks as Interim Deal Agreed to End Iran War
(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and political/company news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes jumped while crude oil and government bond yields slumped after the US and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war in the Middle East.The Nasdaq Composite surged 3% to 26,669.5, with the S&P 500 up 1.9% to 7,571.2, and the Dow Jones Industrial Average higher by 1.4% to 51,920.8 after midday Monday. Technology, communication services, and consumer discretionary led the gainers, while energy was the standout decliner.Iran's Supreme National Security Council confirmed on Sunday that a memorandum of understanding had been reached, with military operations on all fronts set to cease immediately. No text of the MoU has been released, and the duo has offered conflicting accounts of what will follow a signing ceremony in Switzerland on Friday, CNN reported.The peace deal will end the US blockade of Iranian ports and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, according to multiple media reports. Iran's Foreign Ministry spokesman, Esmail Baghaei, said the ceasefire in Lebanon - one of Iran's preconditions for a negotiated settlement - has been observed in the memorandum of understanding, Al Jazeera reported.Israel's defense minister said Monday that the country wouldn't withdraw from land seized in Lebanon, where Israel is fighting the Iranian-backed Hezbollah militant group, according to a report from the Associated Press.If Iran abides by its commitments to reopen the Strait of Hormuz and not develop a nuclear weapon, then it will be "reinvited into the world economy," and US sanctions in the region will be loosened, a Stifel note cited US Vice President JD Vance as saying on CNBC on Monday.Crude oil futures slumped. Front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent slumped 4.3% to $80.61 per barrel, and US West Texas Intermediate slid 4.1% to $83.28 per barrel."Whether prices, currently around $13 above pre-war levels, can fall further will depend on several factors, including the pace at which commercial and strategic stockpiles are replenished, how quickly shut-in production can be brought back online, and the extent of any lasting demand destruction caused by a prolonged period of elevated energy prices," Saxo Bank said in a note.Most US Treasury yields fell, with the 10-year down 1.6 basis points to 4.47% and the two-year lower by 2.5 basis points to 4.06%.In precious metals, gold futures jumped 2.8% to $4,355.51, while silver futures climbed 3.3% to $70.22.In company news, Fox (FOX, FOXA) agreed to acquire Roku (ROKU) in a cash-and-stock deal that values the TV streaming platform at about $22 billion, creating a media and technology entity with one of the largest streaming businesses in the US. Shares of Fox slumped 16%, the worst performer on the S&P 500 and the Nasdaq.In economic news, industrial production rose by 0.1% in May, compared with expectations for a larger 0.3% increase in a Bloomberg-compiled survey, and following an upwardly revised 0.9% increase in April.The National Association of Home Builders' monthly housing market index fell to 35 in June from a revised 37 in May, compared with expectations for a 37 print in a Bloomberg-compiled poll. The index was still above 32, as reported a year earlier.The New York Federal Reserve's Empire State manufacturing index fell to 5.7 in June from 19.6 in May, compared with a smaller expected decrease to 13.5 in a survey compiled by Bloomberg. The Empire State index is the first manufacturing sector reading for June and suggests a slower pace of expansion.


