EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Edge Higher Amid Stalled US-Iran Peace Talks
European natural gas futures were up on Monday, as stalled US-Iran peace talks kept geopolitical risks elevated for global energy markets.Front-month Dutch TTF gas contracts edged up 0.95% to 45.27 euros ($53.13) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP benchmark rose 0.94% to 111.62 pence ($1.51) per therm.This comes after the expected second round of peace talks between the US and Iran, in Pakistan, failed to materialize over the weekend.In a Truth Social post on Saturday, US President Donald Trump cancelled the planned trip of special envoy Steve Witkoff and son-in-law Jared Kushner, saying that they would be wasting "too much time," while highlighting "tremendous" infighting and confusion within the Iranian leadership.Trump also said that if the Iranian side wanted to talk, "all they have to do is call," leaving the situation completely open-ended.The Strait of Hormuz, which accounts for one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the ninth week running, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor. There was, however, an uptick in the traffic, with 19 vessels transiting through the Strait over the past 24 hours.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, an increasing number of buyers are now turning to the spot market to "shore up domestic supplies," amid the prolonged closure of the Strait.Hynes also noted that the supply situation could worsen due to potential strike action at the Ichthys LNG facility in Australia.On Friday, the International Energy Agency warned that the damage to Qatari infrastructure could delay an LNG expansion by at least two years, leading to a cumulative loss of 120 billion cubic meters of potential supply between 2026 and 2030.This comes at a time when European inventories remain depleted, at just 31.47% of capacity, compared to 38.14% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.