Analysts have sharply raised their forecasts for a global oil deficit in 2026 after the Middle East conflict disrupted Gulf supplies, but expect recovering exports, strong US production and weaker Chinese demand to push the market back into surplus in 2027, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday.
Eight analysts surveyed by Reuters reportedly forecast an average global oil deficit of 1.5 million barrels per day in 2026, roughly double the 750,000-bpd deficit projected in April. Before the conflict, the same group had expected a surplus of 1.63 million bpd for 2026.
The poll now points to a surplus of 1.9 million bpd in 2027.
The conflict, which began with US and Israeli strikes on Iran on Feb. 28, disrupted Gulf crude production and exports after attacks and shipping disruptions effectively closed the Strait of Hormuz, through which about one-fifth of global oil supplies had flowed before the war.
Although a peace agreement briefly reopened the waterway last month, renewed fighting has lifted prices and tightened supplies. Brent crude has risen about 28% so far in July after surging 63% in March, its biggest monthly gain since LSEG records began in 1988.
Reuters said the analysts expect the market to swing back into surplus in 2027 as Gulf exports recover, OPEC+ unwinds production cuts and output from the US and Latin America remains robust. Weaker Chinese demand is also expected to weigh on consumption as electrification and fuel substitution accelerate.
However, analysts said any return to oversupply will depend on how quickly shipping through the Strait of Hormuz returns to normal.