Treasury
Commerzbank on Overnight News
Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Tuesday highlighted:Markets: Brent slips below $100/barrel, equities extend gains, United States Treasuries recover after Vice President JD Vance comments, US dollar (USD) weakens. Long-end Japanese government bond yields slide after strong 20-year auction.Fed: Chicago Federal Reserve Bank President Austan Goolsbee says the Fed would have to factor in higher energy prices for an extended period, warns about a hit to consumer sentiment. Fed Governor Stephen Miran sees no reason to react to the inflation spike, expects inflation "pretty close" to the target one year from now; doesn't support selling securities, less balance sheet use helps preserve independence.Fed: New York Fed expects SOMA net income to turn positive this year, plans a larger reduction of bill purchases over the coming month.Fed: Kevin Warsh submitted paperwork to the senate, putting him one step closer to hearing on the Fed chair position (CNBC).Iran war: U.S. and Iran mull another round of face-to-face negotiations for a longer-term ceasefire. Vice President Vance says the U.S. has achieved objectives, "can start to wind this thing down." Iran's president says in a phone call with French President Emmanuel Macron that Tehran is ready to continue U.S. peace talks. Iran offered a five-year suspension of nuclear activity during weekend talks, the US proposed a 20-year suspension (NYT). Secretary of State Marco Rubio to host talks between Israel and Lebanon in Washington on Tuesday.Strait of Hormuz: Saudi Arabia is pressing the U.S. to drop the blockade (WSJ). President Macron and British Prime Minister Keir Starmer tout a plan to open Hormuz. President Donald Trump wants to give details on Tuesday on which countries offered help.President Trump says "we may stop by Cuba after we're finished with this."==EUROPE:ECB: European Central Bank Governing Council member Francois Villeroy de Galhau calls for vigilance as the French central bank (BdF) survey shows 23% of French businesses plan to increase prices in April, up from 11% in March. BdF sees Q1 gross domestic product growth of 0.3%.U.K.: Finance Minister Rachel Reeves will pitch the United Kingdom as a "rare safe haven for investors" at the International Monetary Fund summit. BRC March retail sales beat expectations.
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