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Most US Treasury Yields Fall Pre-Bell After Iran State Media Reports Tehran-US Peace Agreement to Reopen Hormuz

Ciena Closes $2.875 Billion Offering of Convertible Notes

Ciena (CIEN) said Thursday it has completed a $2.875 billion private offering of 0.00% convertible senior notes due 2031.The use of the net proceeds included for hedging and warrant transactions, share repurchase, and debt repayment, it said.

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Treasury12d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Thursday vs 3:00 Wednesday2yr 99-27 vs 99-25; 4.068% vs 4.124%5yr 99-22 vs 99-12; 4.188% vs 4.262%10yr 99-09+ vs 98-21+; 4.461% vs 4.540%30yr 100-24+ vs 99-19; 4.949% vs 5.025%2/10 39.083 bps vs 41.376 bps5/30 75.966 bps vs 76.128 bps

Treasury12d ago

US 30-Year Auction High Yield Falls From Previous Month, Demand Higher

The US Treasury's 30-year auction hit a high yield of 5.020% on Thursday, down from the 5.046% high in the previous auction.The bid to cover ratio for the auction was 2.33, above the 2.30 ratio in the previous auction.Dealers represented 55.39% of the bids, with direct bidders at 13.14% and indirect bidders at 31.47%.For takedown, dealers took 14.74%, with direct bidders at 25.31% and indirect bidders at 59.95%.

Treasury12d ago

US 30-Year High Yield 5.020% vs 5.046% Previous; Bid/Cover 2.33 vs 2.30 Previous

Treasury12d ago

Deutsche Bank Notes Trump's Comments on USMCA Trade Deal Review

United States President Donald Trump on Wednesday said he wouldn't be reauthorizing the country's USMCA, or CUSMA as it's known in Canada, trade pact with Mexico and Canada he agreed to in his first term, said Deutsche Bank.Trump said "I'm not looking to renew it," and without an extension, the deal would see rolling annual reviews while remaining in force for the next decade, noted the bank.It's possible for a country to exit the deal with six months' notice, but Trump didn't say if he was considering this, pointed out Deutsche Bank.

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Treasury12d ago

Bank of Canada's Prolonged Pause to Persist, Balance of Risks More for Rate Cut Than Hike, Says UBS

The Bank of Canada held rates at 2.25% at Wednesday's policy meeting and kept the policy rate at the lower end of its estimated neutral range, 2.25%-3.25%, said UBS.The communications were little changed, but the BoC did acknowledge more plainly the "policy dilemma" caused by weakening economic activity and rising inflation, writes the bank in a note to clients.With the uncertain outlook, UBS predicts that the BoC will remain on hold this year.The bank estimates it will get more color on the outlook expected by the BoC in the updated Monetary Policy Report at the next meeting, July 15.In terms of the balance of risks, UBS thinks these could even be tilted toward cuts, not hikes, depending on how the economy shapes up with these headwinds. This is somewhat at odds with the roughly 28bps of hikes still priced in by markets through year-end.Next year, the bank forecasts more momentum in the economy, which could tip the balance back towards hikes, but the key factor will be the conclusion of the USMCA trade deal review.

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Treasury12d ago

Vancouver's Condo Market Is Still Searching for A Floor, Says TD

Vancouver's condo market remains under pressure, with weak demand and elevated supply expected to push prices lower through 2026, said TD.The bank forecasts a roughly 15% peak-to-trough decline from the 2023 high by mid-2027, marking the deepest correction on record back to 2005, writes the bank in a note to clients.For 2026, prices should fall around 7% to 8% in Q4/Q4 terms, although TD sees some stabilization taking place in 2027.Vancouver's condo market is in the midst of a "notable correction," though one that appears less severe than in Toronto, stated the bank. Sales are down and prices are falling, reflecting softer demand and elevated supply.As affordability improves and demand gradually returns, the beginnings of a more durable recovery should take shape in 2027, although one tempered by slower population growth, added TD.

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Treasury12d ago

Nothing at All Hawkish Out of The Bank of Canada, Says Rosenberg Research

The Bank of Canada did the obvious and held the policy rate at 2.25% on Wednesday, while the main message was that there isn't likely to be any change coming over the near- to intermediate-term, said Rosenberg Research.In Governor Tiff Macklem's opening remarks, he made it clear that "holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks," referring to downside growth risks and upside inflation risks.The Canadian money market, at points since the late-April meeting, priced in three BoC rate hikes by year-end, and that has been pared to one, noted Rosenberg Research. "That is one too many."Nothing at Wednesday's policy statement and press conference sounded the least bit hawkish, even as the BoC retains its optionality, stated Rosenberg.The Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) should remain vulnerable since it will take a lot more to knock United States traders from the view that the Federal Reserve will be hiking rates sooner rather than later, according to Rosenberg.What stood out while listening to the press conference on Wednesday was the very different underlying tone compared with the presser following the April rate decision, added Rosenberg. Back then, there was more focus on the possible need for "consecutive increases in the policy rate."That phrase was repeated at the opening of the press conference on Wednesday, but it rang hollow, it pointed out.

$CAD$CXY

Treasury12d ago

Supreme Court Blocks Activists From Suing Closed-End Funds Over Management Decisions

The US Supreme Court on Thursday overturned a lower court ruling, blocking activist investors from suing closed-end mutual funds over maneuvers they take to avoid activist-investor takeovers.Saba Capital Master Fund, which led the suing investors, alleged that such moves, like incorporating in favorable jurisdictions, violate the Investment Company Act of 1940.The Investment Company Act designates the Securities and Exchange Commission as its primary enforcer and expressly permits shareholders and issuers of securities to enforce two of its provisions," said Justice Amy Coney Barrett in her opinion of the court. "We must decide whether another provision of the Act impliedly empowers private parties to sue for rescission of any contract that allegedly violates the Act. The answer is no."

Treasury12d ago

Supreme Court Blocks Activists From Suing Closed-End Funds Over Management Decisions

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Treasury12d ago

Government of Canada 10-Year Bonds Slightly Outperforming U.S. Treasuries, Says National Bank

Government of Canada (GoC) 10-year bonds versus U.S. Treasuries 10s trading at -106 bps early Thursday, said National Bank of Canada.This means GoCs are slightly outperforming to start Thursday, noted the bank.That's largely in the same spot as last auction, but those levels continue to be on the richer side of the year-to-date range, stated National Bank.Saying this, cross-market outperformance hasn't been as pronounced as it has been down the curve, for example, two-year GoCs have outperformed 30bps since the end of February versus 25bps in 10-year ones, added the bank.

$CXY

Treasury12d ago

Canada's Building Permits Fall More Than Expected in April as Both Non-Residential, Residential Sectors Decline

The total value of building permits issued in Canada decreased $1.0 billion, or 7.6% month over month, to $12.5 billion in April, as both the non-residential sector and the residential sector contributed to the decline in construction intentions, said the country's statistical agency on Thursday.April's slip was more than twice the 3% month-over-month drop estimated by the Bank of Montreal (BMO).On a constant dollar basis (2023=100), the total value of building permits issued in April declined 7.7% from the previous month and was up 2.7% on a year-over-year basis, noted Statistics Canada in a statement.The value of non-residential building permits fell $585.9 million to $5.0 billion in April. The decrease was led by the institutional component (-$388.2 million to $1.4 billion), followed by the industrial component (-$323.2 million to $1.2 billion). Meanwhile, the commercial component (+$125.6 million to $2.3 billion) moderated the overall decrease.Residential construction intentions declined by $437.7 million to $7.5 billion in April. The multi-family component (-$429.7 million to $4.8 billion) accounted for most of the decline in the month, while the single-family component remained virtually unchanged, at $2.7 billion.The data refers to the value of permits issued for residential (single-family and multi-family dwellings) and non-residential (industrial, commercial and institutional) construction. It is calculated from a survey of municipalities that issue permits and is seasonally adjusted as the construction industry is sensitive to seasonal changes. It's a leading indicator of Canada's construction industry.

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Treasury12d ago

Brief: Canada's Building Permits Slip 7.6% M/M in April; BMO Saw 3% M/M Decline

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Treasury12d ago

Bank of Canada Is Still In A Holding Pattern, Says RBC

The Bank of Canada kept rates unchanged on Wednesday, as widely expected by markets and consensus, said RBC.The BoC's assessment of the economy, inflation and risk factors was essentially unchanged compared with April, noted the bank.Canada's central bank had an opportunity, with the gross domestic product being weaker than expected, to sound more dovish, but didn't take it, stated RBC.The BoC is content with the current policy rate setting and either (i) the growth outlook needs to change materially or (ii) a risk factor comes to fruition (trade restrictions leading to a cut, or oil results in generalized inflation, leading to a hike) to move the BoC off its spot.The policy outlook is complicated by a trimodal distribution -- cuts, hold, hike. However, RBC is still content with its view that the next move will likely be a hike in 2027 and that no change this year is the path of "least resistance."

$CXY

Treasury12d ago

BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

Canada reports April building permits at 8:30 a.m. ET on Thursday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The bank expects the April building permits to decline about 3% in the month after spiking 10.3% in March.

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Treasury12d ago

Nomura Still Sees Bank of Canada on Hold for This Year After Wednesday's Policy Decision

The Bank of Canada kept its policy rate unchanged at Wednesday's policy meeting, as widely expected, said Nomura.BoC Governor Tiff Macklem offered no directional forward guidance and emphasized two-sided policy risks, noted the bank. The opening statement was dovish on net.The BoC's Council didn't explicitly reference the technical recession, but acknowledged weaker growth, pointed out Nomura. In contrast to April, the statement no longer characterized growth as above potential and instead noted that the economy is expected to remain in excess supply.Policymakers remained sanguine on inflation, citing improvement in core inflation measures and limited evidence of broad-based spillovers from higher energy prices.The BoC also reiterated that it would look through the Iran war's near-term impact on inflation. Overall, downside risks to growth remain elevated while price pressures appear contained, stated Nomura.The bank continues to expect the BoC to remain on hold through 2026.

$CXY

Treasury12d ago

Bank of Canada Is Set to Stay on Hold With Rates, Says BMO

The Bank of Canada left policy rates unchanged at 2.25% on Wednesday and reinforced Bank of Montreal's (BMO) view that rates will likely be at this level through 2026.Here's the crux of the BoC's policy dilemma: "Raising rates to dampen inflation could further slow the economy. Easing rates to support growth increases the risk that higher inflation becomes persistent. For now, holding the policy rate unchanged balances those risks."Inflation in this context is largely refers to the risk that high oil prices eventually pass through to broader price pressures, noted the bank.On the ground now, however, core inflation momentum has ebbed, stated BMO. The old-school measure of core inflation (CPIX, which scrubs out tax changes as well) was 2.1% year over year as of April.That leaves real policy rates just a shade above zero and probably around the right level, added the bank. The era of deeply negative real interest rates (post-GFC and pandemic) is clearly behind Canada.However, current structural headwinds (trade, etc.) probably don't warrant neutral real rates at levels that persisted in the era before that.On hold the BoC remains, concluded BMO.

$CXY

Treasury12d ago

Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Thursday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries fall after the U.S. announces it has completed strikes on Iran, then fully recover losses during the Asian session. E-minis mirror USTs amid mixed Asian equities. Key foreign exchange pairs zigzag sideways. Brent rises to US$95/barrel after U.S./Iran news, then partly reverses after.Fed: The Federal Reserve confirms that Chair Kevin Warsh will hold a press conference next week.Trade: President Donald Trump says he's not looking to renew the USMCA trade deal, says the U.S. needs nothing from Mexico or Canada and both must treat the U.S. better.U.S.: President Trump calls on Congress to pass reconciliation bill. On another occasion, he says he has the right to sell Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, reiterates they could be worth $1 trillion.U.S.: The department of justice is probing big banks over alleged "debanking" of clients, subpoenas sent (WSJ).Iran war: The U.S. launches strikes on multiple targets in southern Iran and Tehran retaliates. The IRGC says it struck two vessels in the Strait of Hormuz, declaring Hormuz closed to all vessels. President Trump tells Fox that the bombing will stop shortly, but resume the next day if no deal is reached. He says the U.S. controls the Strait of Hormuz, claims over 200 commercial ships and more than 100 million barrels of oil are transiting.Iran war: U.S. and Iranian officials held talks via Qatari mediators in Doha over the past two days (Axios). Israel's Defense Minister Israel Katz says the Iran war is far from over, warns the Israeli army is poised to strike "with great force."==EUROPE:Germany: Fuel subsidy ("Tankrabatt") to end on July 1 as planned.==ASIA:Japan: Cabinet Secretary Minoru Kihara says Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda's hospitalization won't disrupt policy operations.

$CXY

Treasury12d ago

US 10-Year Treasury Yield Slips 1.2 basis Points to 4.53%, 2-Year Rate Unchanged at 4.13% Early Thursday

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