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NWS Warns of Extreme Heat Across Southern US This Week

The US National Weather Service on Wednesday said it expected parts of the southern US to continue experiencing dangerous and extreme heat this week.Parts of the Mid-Atlantic and Northeast are likely to face significant flash flooding through the night due to heavy rains, while additional flash flooding concerns remain for New England on Wednesday, the agency said.Flash flood risks were also forecast for the Four Corners region, especially its burn scar areas.The NWS issued an extreme heat warning early Wednesday for Arizona's Yuma, Parker, Lake Havasu City, Bullhead City, Kingman, Ajo, Gila Bend, Phoenix, Wickenburg, Dateland, Prescott, Payson, Globe, Casa Grande, Tucson, Globe, San Carlos, Oracle, Oro Valley, Green Valley, Nogales, Sierra Vista, Bisbee, Sells, Willcox, Benson, Safford, Bisbee, Page, Chinle, and Grand Canyon Village.Arizona is The state is primarily served by Pinnacle West Capital (PNW) unit Arizona Public Service Company, and UNS Energy subsidiaries Unisource and Tucson Electric Power.In Nevada, a similar warning was raised for Tonopah, Beatty, Las Vegas, and Caliente, primarily served by Berkshire Hathaway Energy unit NV Energy.Affected areas in California include Blythe, El Centro Imperial, Palm Springs, Twentynine Palms, Campo, El Cajon, Mount Laguna, Julian, Borrego Springs, Indio, Escondido, Temecula, San Clemente, San Bernardino, Hemet, Beaumont, Victorville, Barstow, Baker, Death Valley, Tehachapi, Bishop, Anaheim, Ontario, Chino, Los Angeles, Anaheim, Santa Ana, Burbank, Palmdale, Santa Clarita, Long Beach, Oxnard, Malibu, San Luis Obispo, Ridgecrest, Santa Maria, Paso Robles, Edwards AFB, and Riverside.PG&E (PCG) subsidiary Pacific Gas and Electric, Edison International's (EIX) Southern California Edison, and Sempra Energy (SRE) unit San Diego Gas & Electric are the major electricity service providers in these places.Also placed under a similar watch were Oklahoma's Bartlesville, Tulsa, Muskogee, Hugo, McAlester, and Oklahoma City. OGE Energy (OGE) subsidiary Oklahoma Gas & Electric and American Electric Power's (AEP) Public Service Co. of Oklahoma are the major service providers in Oklahoma.The NWS issued an extreme heat warning for Mississippi's Cleveland, Greenville, Grenada, Greenwood, Vicksburg, Jackson, Brookhaven, Clarksdale, and parts of Gulfport. Southern Co (SO) unit Mississippi Power and Entergy's (ETR) Mississippi subsidiary are among the major power suppliers in the state.In Florida, a similar warning was issued for Marianna, Apalachicola, Panama City, Tallahassee, Perry, Lake City, Cross City, Jacksonville, Gainesville, and parts of Pensacola and De Funiak Springs. NextEra Energy (NEE) subsidiary Florida Power & Light and Duke Energy (DUK) are among the major suppliers in these places.Also placed under an extreme heat warning watch were Louisiana's Hammond and New Orleans, served by Entergy's local subsidiaries; Hilton Head Island and Beaufort in South Carolina, where Dominion Energy (D) is the primary service provider, Mobile in Alabama, served by Southern Company's Alabama Power; and Bainbridge, Valdosta, Waycross, Savannah, and Hinesville in Georgia, which primarily falls under the service area of Southern Company's Georgia Power.The NWS issued flash flood warnings for areas near Dalton and Blairsville in Georgia, parts of New Jersey, New York, and small pockets in Pennsylvania. A flood warning was raised for Cotulla and George West in Texas, and small pockets of New York.

$AEP$D$DUK$EIX$ETR$NEE$OGE$PCG$PNW$SO$SRE

Commodities10d ago

Market Chatter: India to Crank Up Imports of US LPG in 2027 in Pursuit of Trade Deal

India will import up to 25% of its liquefied petroleum gas from the US next year, reducing its reliance on the turbulent Middle East, while also facilitating a trade deal with the world's largest economy, Reuters reported on Tuesday, citing unnamed sources.The Asian country was forced to reallocate supplies away from industry to households this year following Iran's closure of the Strait of Hormuz, to meet needs for cooking. In 2025, India bought 90% of its 21.85 million metric tons of LPG imports from the Middle East.State-owned refiners Indian Oil, Bharat Petroleum and Hindustan Petroleum are expected to launch tenders in the next two months for US LPG supplies for 2027, according to the sources, while a delegation will travel to the US to discuss the imports.Larger imports of US energy would help narrow India's trade surplus with the US, as demanded by President Donald Trump, as New Delhi seeks to finalize a trade deal with Washington in the coming months. India has promised to increase US energy purchases to $25 billion, up from about $15 billion in the near future, the article said.Neither India's oil ministry nor any of the three companies immediately replied to Reuters' request for comment.has reached out to the entities for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Commodities10d ago

Asia Biofuels Update: Palm Oil Recovers on Crude Oil Strength, Robust Exports

Malaysian palm oil futures rebounded on Wednesday as crude oil prices rose and as strong exports and long-term weather-related supply risks provided support.Following two sessions of losses, the Bursa Malaysia Derivatives' August crude palm oil contract recovered 0.64% to 4,569 Malaysian ringgit ($1,111.25) per metric ton. The September contract firmed 0.67% to 4,636 ringgit/mt.Malaysian palm oil shipments for the July 1-25 period reportedly grew between 8.1% and 15.9% from a month earlier based on cargo surveyor estimates. This followed a 6.2% month over month rise in June.A potential rebound in Indian demand ahead of Diwali could boost exports from Malaysia and Indonesia going forward.However, exportable supplies from Indonesia may be limited as the country progresses with its higher 50% palm-based biodiesel blending mandate, or B50.State-owned energy company Pertamina began the nationwide rollout of B50 and plans to complete the distribution of biodiesel at all fuel stations by Oct. 1, BioEnergy Times reported.To support the export market, Indonesia is reportedly seeking a US tariff exemption for palm oil exports, after the US imposed a 10% duty on nations associated with forced labor. Top palm oil producers Indonesia and Malaysia are among the countries that received the penalty in July.On the supply side, near-term production is expected to remain robust as palm trees remain in peak seasonal output, while long-term yields are likely to decrease amid expectations of a strong El Nino weather phenomenon toward the end of the year through early 2027.Price reporting agency MySteel sees market fundamentals as mixed, with near-term balance remaining loose while the long-term outlook appears tight due to the potential El Nino impact."...the scope for deep declines remains limited due to support from longer-term supply concerns," it said.

Commodities10d ago

FirstEnergy Q2 Electric Deliveries Edge Up as Industrial Demand Offsets Residential Weakness

FirstEnergy (FE) reported Q2 earnings Tuesday, showing electric distribution deliveries of 34.7 million megawatt-hours, up from 34.5 million MWh a year earlier, as industrial demand offset weaker residential and commercial usage.Residential deliveries declined to 11.7 million MWh for the quarter ended June 30, down from 12 million MWh a year earlier.Commercial deliveries fell to 9.5 million MWh, down from 9.6 million MWh in the year-ago quarter.Industrial deliveries increased to 13.5 million MWh for the quarter, compared with 13 million MWh for Q2 2025.Weather-adjusted total electric distribution rose to 34.8 million MWh, up from 34.3 million MWh for the same quarter last year.Weather-adjusted residential deliveries totaled 11.8 million MWh, while weather-adjusted commercial deliveries edged down to 9.5 million MWh from 9.6 million MWh in the same quarter last year.Weather-adjusted industrial deliveries increased to 13.5 million MWh from 13 million MWh a year earlier.FirstEnergy continues to advance its Energize365 investment program, allocating $36 billion across 2026 through 2030 to strengthen grid reliability, modernize infrastructure, expand transmission capacity and support rising electricity demand.

$FE

Commodities10d ago

Correction: US Crude Oil Inventories Drop, API Says

(Corrects headline and 1st paragraph to show that crude stocks fell.)Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories decreased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ended July 24, following a 2.6-mmbbl increase the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 2.5-mmbbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Commodities10d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Prices Continue Slide on Inadequate Demand

US natural gas futures extended earlier losses in after-hours trading on Tuesday, falling by more than 10 cents as a multi-day selloff continued amid ample supplies and subdued demand.The front-month Henry Hub contract fell 4.59% to $2.640 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract declined 3.91% to $2.679/MMBtu.The market retreated for a fourth consecutive session on Tuesday, with nearest-month futures falling to a three-month low, according to Barchart. The Energy Buyers' Guide said the August contract has lost $0.20 over the past week and $0.62 over the past month. Weakness also spread to the winter strip, which fell $0.06 to $3.51/MMBtu and is once again testing multi-year lows.Prices remained under pressure after weather forecasts shifted toward cooler conditions across the Midwest and East Coast through Aug. 5, reducing expected demand for air conditioning and natural gas-fired power generation, Barchart said.Aegis Hedging said data from Criterion showed total US power demand slipped on Tuesday as national temperatures fell below the 10-year average. Market participants expect cooling degree days to bottom out at around 13 on Wednesday before stabilizing near 15 through the first half of August, Aegis said.According to Gelber & Associates, the latest weather model run added 7.4 Bcf of cumulative demand over the next two weeks, with most of the additional demand concentrated in the 11- to 15-day period. Total demand is projected to reach 117-120 Bcf/d next week, the firm said.While early August power burn is expected to improve, Gelber said liquefied natural gas feedgas demand is also forecast to increase into the 19.7-20.3 Bcf/d range, potentially creating a much tighter demand balance than current pipeline flows suggest.However, production is forecast to move above 111 Bcf/d and approach 112 Bcf/d by early August, meaning the market will likely require confirmation from actual power-sector and LNG export demand before assigning significant value to the warmer weather outlook, Gelber said.

Commodities10d ago

US Crude Oil Inventories Rise, API Says

Data from the American Petroleum Institute revealed Tuesday that US crude oil inventories increased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ended July 24, following a 2.6-million-barrel increase the previous week, and compared with analysts' estimate of a 2.5-mmbbl decline, according to a Bloomberg-compiled survey.The oil market now awaits the US Energy Information Administration's petroleum inventory report, scheduled for release on Wednesday.

Commodities10d ago

Expand Energy Increases Q2 Output, Keeps 2026 Production Guidance Unchanged

Expand Energy (EXE) reported Tuesday Q2 earnings showing net production of 7.48 billion cubic feet equivalent per day, up from 7.20 Bcfe/d a year earlier.Natural gas production increased to 6.90 Bcf/d for the quarter ended June 30, up from 6.60 Bcf/d a year earlier, accounting for 92% of total output.Oil production declined to 14,000 barrels per day for the quarter, down from 18,000 b/d for the same quarter last year. Natural gas liquids production held steady at 83,000 b/d.Total production in the Haynesville rose to 3.19 Bcf/d, up from 2.98 Bcf/d in the year-ago quarter, while Northeast Appalachia produced 2.63 Bcf/d, compared with 2.66 Bcf/d a year earlier.Southwest Appalachia increased total production to 1.67 Bcfe/d from 1.56 Bcfe/d a year earlier.Expand Energy operated an average of 12 rigs, drilled 55 wells and turned 48 wells in line during the quarter.The company reaffirmed its 2026 production outlook of 7.4 Bcfe/d to 7.6 Bcfe/d.The company also reaffirmed plans to operate 11-12 rigs in 2026 and invest approximately $2.75 billion to $2.95 billion in capital spending to support development across its portfolio.Expand Energy announced the acquisition of Twin Eagle, which it said will create North America's largest integrated natural gas company and broaden access to demand markets across the continent.

$EXE

Commodities10d ago

US Biofuels Update: Soybean Futures Jump, Soybean Oil Prices Follow Crude Lower

Biofuels feedstock futures closed mixed on Tuesday, with soybeans trading higher and soybean oil under pressure from deeper losses in the crude oil market.The Chicago Board of Trade August soybean futures contract closed 0.23% higher at $12.11 1/4 per bushel, while the CBOT August soybean oil futures contract settled 0.88% lower at 70.83 cents per pound.The Nymex September ethanol futures contract settled 0.77% lower on Monday at $1.94 per gallon.September crude oil futures traded below $80 per barrel on Tuesday, as Iran and Oman use a pause in US strikes to negotiate a reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Rhett Montgomery, a DTN analyst, said the soybean market recovered slightly from Monday's steep drop, which eliminated most of last week's gains, to start the new week.Futures were lifted by declining crop ratings in the US Department of Agriculture's Monday update, Montgomery said, noting, "but at the same time pressured by another energy-inspired drop in soybean oil futures as well as rainfall in the weekly forecast across the heart of the soybean belt."USDA announced on Tuesday Private sales of 197,272 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2026/2027 marketing year.

Commodities10d ago

Market Chatter: UK Targets Speculative Data Center Projects With New Grid Rules

The UK plans to require financial commitments from data center developers seeking electricity grid connections to discourage speculative projects and ease congestion, Bloomberg reported Tuesday, citing an emailed statement from Ofgem.The report said Ofgem will outline proposals on Wednesday requiring developers to provide upfront financial guarantees while setting stricter milestones that could cost projects both their deposits and places in the grid connection queue.Data center projects have requested about 73 gigawatts of grid capacity, with 40 developments each seeking more than 500 MW, adding pressure to Britain's electricity network, the report added.Ofgem did not immediately reply to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumors and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Commodities10d ago

HF Sinclair Beats Q2 Estimates on Refining Strength, Plans Lubricants Spin-Off, TPH Says

HF Sinclair (DINO) Q2 earnings beat estimates, buoyed by stronger-than-expected refining capture rates and robust performance in its lubricants and renewable diesel segments, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.TPH analysts said that the independent refiner posted adjusted earnings of $5.31 per share for the quarter, outpacing the $4.51 consensus estimate. Its adjusted EBITDA came in at $1.48 billion, compared with the consensus expectation of $1.22 billion.Refining earnings improved substantially quarter-over-quarter to $1.02 billion, bolstered by gross margins of $25.95 per barrel and an estimated capture rate of 91%, up from 85% in the previous quarter. Total sales volume reached 669,000 barrels per day.TPH said that alongside the quarterly results, HF Sinclair announced it is pursuing a tax-free spin-off of its lubricants business by H1 2027. The lubricants unit has generated $431 million in EBITDA over the past 12 months.Furthermore, the lubricants segment itself contributed $207 million in quarterly EBITDA, supported by surging base oil cracks and a $46 million FIFO benefit, despite sales volumes easing to 32,000 barrels per day.Meanwhile, the renewables segment posted $123 million in EBITDA, reflecting strong profitability of $2.05 per gallon on a total run rate of 60 million gallons.Marketing segment volumes rose 19% year-over-year to 387 million gallons, supported by new store growth, though EBITDA margins trimmed to 7 cents per gallon. Midstream performance remained flat at $112 million.On the capital return front, HF Sinclair repurchased $175 million of shares during the quarter and raised its forward dividend by 5%. Together with its dividend distribution, the total capital return yield reached 9%.Going forward, HF Sinclair noted that its refining indicator has climbed about $4.30 per barrel quarter-over-quarter heading into Q3, supported by strength in the Mid-Continent region.TPH said that consensus analyst estimates for third-quarter earnings stand at $4.69 per share.Price: $90.71, Change: $-0.07, Percent Change: -0.08%

$DINO

Commodities10d ago

Gibson Energy Reports Record Infrastructure EBITDA as Throughput Improves, TPH Says

Gibson Energy increased throughput across key assets and delivered record infrastructure earnings in Q21, while stronger marketing margins lifted overall results, TPH Energy Research said in a Tuesday note.Higher throughput at the Gateway and Edmonton terminals, the initial contribution from the Chauvin Infrastructure Assets, and ongoing restructuring benefits lifted infrastructure adjusted EBITDA to a record CA$169 million ($119.8 million), TPH said.Infrastructure adjusted EBITDA increased CA$17 million from a year earlier and came in slightly above TPH's and the Street's CA$168 million estimates, the report added.Gibson completed the CA$400 million Chauvin acquisition in May and approved the Hardisty Connection project.The marketing segment generated adjusted EBITDA of CA$15 million, topping TPH's CA$6 million estimate and the Street's CA$7 million forecast. TPH attributed the outperformance to stronger crack spreads and improved refined product margins.Adjusted EBITDA reached CA$169 million, exceeding TPH's CA$157 million estimate and matching a beat versus the Street's CA$157 million forecast. TPH said stronger marketing performance accounted for the entire upside.Distributable cash flow totaled CA$96 million, above TPH's and the Street's CA$88 million estimates.In July, the company also issued CA$400 million of 4.45% senior unsecured notes due 2034, which management said achieved the tightest credit spread across any tenor in the company's history.Net income increased CA$22 million from a year earlier to CA$83 million, supported by stronger operating performance and lower taxes. Higher general and administrative expenses, Chauvin acquisition costs and unrealized corporate mark-to-market partially offset the gain.General and administrative expenses totaled CA$16 million, below management's guided quarterly run rate of CA$17 million-CA$18 million, TPH said.Net debt to adjusted EBITDA stood at 4.2x, while the trailing 12-month dividend payout ratio measured 88%. Management expects both metrics to normalize as the Chauvin assets contribute over a full year, TPH Energy added.

Commodities10d ago

Saudi Arabia's Oil Escape Route Faces New Test as Red Sea Risks Expand, Kpler Says

Saudi Arabia's main alternative route for exporting oil around the Strait of Hormuz is facing a new challenge. The same Red Sea corridor used to bypass one maritime chokepoint may now be exposed to another, Kpler analyst Emmanuel Belostrino said in a Tuesday note.Most Saudi crude avoids the Strait of Hormuz by traveling through the East-West Pipeline to Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. From there, however, much of the oil bound for Asia must sail south through the Bab el-Mandeb Strait, where attacks and threats from Yemen's Houthi movement have disrupted commercial shipping.A potential solution is to reverse the flow and send more Saudi oil north through Egypt. The route would use the 2.5 million barrels-per-day Suez-Mediterranean Pipeline, or SUMED, which connects the Red Sea to the Mediterranean, along with northbound Suez Canal shipping. The arrangement would allow Saudi crude to reach global markets without passing through Bab el-Mandeb.But the solution is not as simple as turning Saudi tankers north. Saudi Arabia normally exports crude on very large crude carriers, which can carry about 2 million barrels of oil. Those ships are too large to pass through the Suez Canal fully loaded. Instead, Saudi Arabia would need to rely on Egypt's SUMED pipeline, smaller Suezmax tankers, or partial unloading operations that reduce a ship's draft before canal transit.Analysis of shipping and trade data suggests the infrastructure exists, but scaling it to replace threatened Red Sea exports would be a major logistical challenge.Saudi Arabia's western ports currently handle about 4.2 million barrels per day of crude exports, with roughly 3.3 million barrels per day typically heading to Asia through Bab el-Mandeb. Refined product exports from Red Sea refineries add another roughly 400,000 to 500,000 barrels per day that could also be affected.The crude system appears technically feasible. SUMED can carry part of the displaced oil, while additional volumes could move on tankers through the Suez Canal. Saudi Arabia has already used the route, but not at the scale required during a prolonged disruption.The bigger challenge may be shipping capacity. Every tanker carrying oil north must eventually be matched by vessels returning south to reload. A large increase in southbound tanker movements would be required, placing pressure on a lane already heavily used by Russian oil exports moving toward Asia.Even if the logistics work, the global oil market would need time to adjust. Much of the disrupted Saudi supply could potentially be absorbed through trade reshuffling, with European refiners taking more Saudi barrels while other producers redirect supplies to Asia. However, long-term contracts, refinery requirements and higher freight costs would limit how quickly the market could adapt.The likely outcome is not a complete replacement of the Red Sea route, but a partial safety valve. Saudi Arabia has a physical escape route; the question is whether shipping networks and global buyers can support it at full scale.

Commodities10d ago

Cheniere Wins FERC Approval to Begin Feed Gas at Corpus Christi Train 7

The Federal Energy Regulatory Commission approved Cheniere Energy's (LNG) request to introduce feed gas to the warm end of Midscale Train 7 at its Corpus Christi Stage 3 project, according to a Tuesday letter.FERC approved Cheniere's July 27 request after reviewing inspections and compliance filings, saying the request meets the conditions of its Nov. 22, 2019 authorization order.FERC said the approval does not authorize Cheniere to construct, commission, or introduce hazardous fluids into other Corpus Christi Stage 3 facilities.The agency will continue reviewing and inspecting the liquefied natural gas terminal, with additional recommendations possible before issuing further authorizations, FERC said.The approval brings the largest US liquefied natural gas exporter closer to starting production from the seventh and final train at Corpus Christi Stage 3, which will add over 10 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas capacity, according to a report by Reuters.Price: $251.56, Change: $-4.32, Percent Change: -1.69%

$LNG

Commodities10d ago

US Natural Gas Update: Futures Hit 3-month Low on Weak Demand, Record Output

US natural gas futures fell in midday trading Tuesday, extending losses after a more than 4% decline in the previous session, as robust production and softer cooling demand across major East Coast population centers weighed on the market.The front-month Henry Hub contract dropped 3.18% to $2.679 per million British thermal units, while the continuous contract declined 3.05% to $2.703/MMBtu.Prices touched their lowest levels in three months as traders assessed growing signs of supply pressure, Trading Economics said.NRG Energy said milder temperatures across the eastern US have reduced cooling demand, putting downward pressure on overall natural gas consumption.Total US gas demand is forecast to fall by 1.3 billion cubic feet per day to 112.3 Bcf/d, driven largely by a 1.2 Bcf/d decline in power-sector gas burn as electricity demand eases across much of the region.Production growth has added to concerns about a well-supplied market. Average natural gas output in the Lower 48 states increased to 110.6 Bcf/d so far in July from 110 Bcf/d in June, matching the monthly record high set in December 2025, according to Trading Economics.Aegis Hedging said Permian Basin gas production climbed to a record-breaking 24.9 Bcf/d in July.Rising output has contributed to concerns about excess supply, with inventories standing 6.4% above the five-year seasonal average as of July 17. Storage levels are expected to rise further to 6.6% above normal for the week ending July 24, Trading Economics said.LNG feedgas demand is forecast at 17 Bcf/d amid ongoing maintenance at Freeport LNG, NRG said. Trading Economics reported that average gas flows to major US export terminals were 17.2 Bcf/d so far in July, down slightly from the June average of 17.4 Bcf/d.

Commodities10d ago

Noble Sees Contract Resequencing Shift Rig Activity as Dayrates Remain Firm, TPH Says

Noble (NE) lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA outlook after contract resequencing offset otherwise resilient offshore drilling activity, TPH Energy Research said in a Tuesday note.Two Petrobras (PBR) floaters reduced Q2 revenue by about $43 million, although adjusted EBITDA still broadly matched TPH's expectations despite the lost contract revenue.Management attributed the weaker outlook to revised schedules for the Noble Viking, Noble Intrepid and Noble Innovator, rather than non-productive time, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.The Noble Viking will complete its firm contract in October 2026 in Southeast Asia and could remain idle before customers exercise its remaining two contract options, according to the research firm.BP (BP) transferred the remaining backlog from the Noble Innovator to the Noble Intrepid, freeing the Innovator in September 2026 while extending the Intrepid's contract through September 2027.Four optional wells for the Northern Endurance Partnership could keep the jackup active through most of 2028, TPH said.Noble also moved the Noble Developer's expected contract completion to January 2027 from the prior August 2027 schedule, which had included a five-well option. TPH said the revised timeline likely reflects the customer's plan to retender future Gulf of America drilling work.Floater operating days came in about 2% below TPH's expectations, while average floater dayrates met estimates at about $413,000.Jackup dayrates reached $197,000, above TPH's $179,000 estimate, while reimbursable revenue totaled about $40 million versus TPH's $35 million forecast.Noble also retired the Ocean Apex ahead of TPH's expected 2027 timeline. Management added that tightening market conditions have pushed leading-edge rates for Tier I ultra-deepwater drillships into the mid-$400,000s, TPH said.Adjusted EBITDA totaled $212 million, compared with TPH's $210 million estimate and the Street's $219 million forecast.The company lowered its fiscal 2026 adjusted EBITDA guidance to $850 million to $925 million from $940 million to $1.02 billion, reducing the midpoint by about $93 million, TPH said.Noble maintained its fiscal 2026 capital expenditure guidance at $615 million to $665 million, in line with TPH's $639 million estimate.Second-quarter capital expenditures reached about $205 million, above the Street's $159 million forecast and TPH's $135 million estimate, resulting in negative free cash flow of $59 million versus the Street's negative $9 million forecast and TPH's positive $53 million estimate.Price: $39.29, Change: $-3.82, Percent Change: -8.86%

$BP$NE$PBR

Commodities10d ago

Topaz Energy Beats Q2 Production Estimates, Lifts FY2026 Volume Guidance, TPH Says

Topaz Energy raised its fiscal 2026 production outlook after second-quarter output reached 24,200 barrels of oil equivalent per day, exceeding estimates, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.The company delivered stronger operating performance as production exceeded expectations and drilling activity accelerated across its royalty acreage, prompting management to increase its full-year production forecast.Total production reached 24,200 boe/d, above TPH's 23,300 boe/d estimate and the Street's 23,600 boe/d forecast.Natural gas production totaled 102.3 million cubic feet per day, topping TPH's 98.9 MMcf/d estimate, while liquids production reached 7,200 boe/d, above TPH's 6,800 boe/d estimate and the Street's 7,100 boe/d forecast.Operators spudded 160 gross wells on Topaz's royalty acreage during the quarter, up from 138 in Q1 and 125 in Q2 of 2025. TPH said activity strengthened despite the seasonal breakup period.Topaz also raised its drilling outlook and now expects 26 to 31 rigs to remain active through Q3, compared with its previous expectation of 22 to 27 rigs during the back half of the second quarter.The company completed a CA$38.7 million ($27.5 million) tuck-in royalty acquisition covering about 300,000 gross acres in its Northeast British Columbia Montney and Deep Basin core areas, including royalty interests in more than 500 gross locations.Topaz increased its fiscal 2026 production guidance to 23,900 boe/d to 24,300 boe/d, with a midpoint of 24,100 boe/d, up from the previous midpoint of 23,900 boe/d and the initial outlook of 23,700 boe/d. The revised midpoint sits slightly above the Street's 24,000 boe/d estimate.The company generated CA$0.57 in cash flow per share, compared with TPH's CA$0.59 estimate and the Street's CA$0.56 forecast. Higher production and stronger commodity realizations offset part of the impact from cash taxes, hedging and lower infrastructure revenue.Infrastructure and other revenue totaled CA$22.3 million, below TPH's CA$24.2 million estimate. Cash taxes exceeded expectations because of tax timing, while hedging also weighed on quarterly results.Topaz spent CA$1.8 million on capital expenditures excluding acquisitions, compared with TPH's CA$1.5 million estimate and the Street's CA$1.3 million forecast.The company maintained its quarterly dividend at CA$0.35 per share, or CA$1.40 annually, representing a 4.3% trailing annualized yield. TPH said the payout keeps Topaz on track to achieve a payout ratio in the mid-60% range for fiscal 2026.

Commodities11d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Extend Decline as Diplomacy Eases Supply Concerns

European natural gas futures declined further on Tuesday as renewed diplomatic efforts involving the US, Iran, Israel and Lebanon eased some concerns over potential supply disruptions and geopolitical risks.The front-month Dutch TTF contract fell 5.516% to 55.040 euros ($62.76) per megawatt-hour, while the front-month UK NBP contract declined 4.646% to 134.220 British pence ($1.79) per therm.Prices eased after US military strikes on Iran were paused last week, creating room for further negotiations between Washington and Tehran. Market sentiment was also supported by reports that Oman had advanced a proposal for the joint management and reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.Adding to diplomatic momentum, Israel-Lebanon peace talks are expected to resume in Rome next week, multiple news outlets reported on Tuesday. However, regional risks remain elevated, with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu meeting US President Donald Trump in Washington to discuss further strategic steps regarding Iran.The decline in European gas prices could provide some relief for buyers seeking to rebuild storage levels ahead of the winter heating season. Gas inventories remain below historical norms, with storage facilities currently 55.66% full, compared with 66.83% at the same point last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Stocks are also below the five-year average of 71.5% for this period, data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy showed.Despite lower prices, Europe faces challenges in accelerating storage injections. Forecasts for another severe heatwave in August, with temperatures expected to exceed 40 degrees Celsius (104 degrees Fahrenheit) in parts of the region, could increase demand for cooling and boost power generation needs, potentially limiting the amount of gas available for storage replenishment.

Commodities11d ago

Methanex Lowers August Methanol Contract Prices Across Asia, TPH Says

Methanex (MEOH) lowered its Asia Pacific August methanol contract price to $550 per metric ton from $620/mt in July as weaker spot prices weighed on the market, according to TPH Energy Research in a Tuesday note.TPH said Asia Pacific spot methanol prices have fallen about $122/mt over the month, driving the contract price lower from $740/mt in Q2. The decline largely matched market expectations.The firm said Asia Pacific spot prices rebounded about $30/mt last week as oil prices strengthened during the renewed US-Iran conflict. Spot prices also remain well above the 2021 to 2025 average of $415/mt.Methanex also rolled over its August China methanol contract at $525/mt, compared with $603/mt in Q2. TPH said China spot methanol prices have declined about $53/mt over the month.North American August contract prices remain pending, while US spot methanol prices have fallen about $61/mt over the month. Even so, US spot methanol margins continue to hold at fresh five-year highs.The firm estimated North American contract prices could decline about $70/mt in August, bringing its projected global average contract price to about $940/mt in Q2 from $975/mt in Q2.Price: $53.51, Change: $-0.67, Percent Change: -1.24%

$MEOH

Commodities11d ago

Energy Stocks Poised for Gains as Oil, Gas Outlook Improves, UBS Says

UBS maintained its bullish outlook for oil and natural gas, saying it expects 2027 prices to top what the current futures price would suggest even as volatility prompted it to stress-test energy stocks under multiple price scenarios, the bank said in a note on Tuesday.The analysis looked at oil prices ranging from $55-$65 per barrel for Brent crude and corresponding WTI prices of about $51-$61/bbl, along with natural gas prices between $2.75 and $4.25 per million British thermal units.UBS assumed companies would keep spending and production levels unchanged across all scenarios.UBS said current share prices for US oil and gas producers imply investors are expecting WTI crude prices in the low $60s/bbl and natural gas prices of about $3.50/MMBtu in 2027.In a scenario where Brent crude averages $75/bbl and natural gas averages $3.75/MMBtu, UBS believes the sector appears undervalued. Based on historical valuation levels, the bank estimates energy stocks could have over 20% upside.The bank also said energy company valuations are highly sensitive to changes in commodity prices. A $10/bbl move in oil prices and a $0.50 change in natural gas prices would have a significant impact on companies' cash flow and valuations.UBS added that if oil prices fall below $60/bbl and natural gas prices below $3/MMBtu many producers would likely reduce drilling activity and production.Despite higher oil prices since the recent conflict began, energy stocks have lagged the broader market. The S&P 500 Energy Index has gained 8% but has underperformed the broader S&P 500 by about 3 percentage points.Front-month WTI crude prices have risen 22%, while contracts for 2027 delivery are up 15%. Longer-dated natural gas prices, however, have fallen 10%.Among the companies UBS follows, SM Energy (SM) and Chord Energy (CHRD) have posted the strongest gains since the conflict began, while Liberty Energy (LBRT), Comstock Resources (CRK) and Gulfport Energy (GPOR) have been the weakest performers.Smaller and mid-sized oil producers have generally outperformed their larger peers, UBS said.UBS maintained its preferred exploration and production stocks as Ovintiv (OVV), Devon Energy (DVN) and Antero Resources (AR), while naming National Energy Services Reunited (NESR) as its top pick among oilfield services companies.Price: $29.40, Change: $-0.90, Percent Change: -2.97%

$AR$CHRD$CRK$DVN$GPOR$LBRT$NESR$OVV$SM

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Commodities10d ago

NWS Warns of Extreme Heat Across Southern US This Week

$AEP$D$DUK$EIX$ETR$NEE$OGE$PCG$PNW$SO$SRE