US natural gas futures prices declined slightly in after-hours trade Friday, pressured by plentiful supplies and forecasts for moderating temperatures later this month.
The front-month Henry Hub contract and the continuous contract each lost 0.49% to $2.820 per million British thermal units.
In earlier trade on Friday, the October contract hit a low of $2.773/MMBtu before recovering.
Forecasts of cooling temperatures put pressure on prices. Barchart, citing Commodity Weather Group data, said above-normal temperatures are expected across the South and Southeast through Sept. 20, supporting near-term demand, but most forecasters expect temperatures to cool thereafter.
Aegis Hedging pegged average national temperatures at about 76 degrees Fahrenheit Friday, with readings expected to fall by 6 degrees or more in the second half of the month.
Cooling demand and powerburn are expected to decline accordingly. Powerburn fell to 46.8 Bcf/d Friday from seasonally high levels of above 50 Bcf/d as temperatures began moderating across the northern US, Gelber & Associates said.
Looking further ahead, heating demand may be muted this winter as NOAA's Climate Prediction Center raised the probability of a historically strong El Nino this fall, favoring above-normal temperatures across much of the northern US during winter 2026/27.
On the export side, US LNG exports continued to support domestic gas demand. Barchart, citing BNEF data, said feedgas flows to US LNG terminals were near capacity at 19.8 Bcf/d, up 1.5% from the prior week. Annual maintenance at Cove Point LNG could reduce Appalachian feedgas demand by about 850 MMcf/d for up to three weeks from Sept. 19.
US output and inventory levels kept the market amply supplied and pressured prices. Natural gas production remained elevated at 112.7 Bcf/d, keeping supply ample despite Canadian imports falling to 4.4 Bcf/d, Gelber said. BNEF said production was up 4.4% year over year.
On Thursday, the US Energy Information Administration reported a 40 Bcf storage injection for the week ended Sept. 4, bringing total inventories to 3,254 Bcf, or 5% above the five-year average but 79 Bcf below year-earlier levels.
RBC Capital Markets expects storage to peak near 3.9 trillion cubic feet this fall, about 120 Bcf above the 10-year average but 60 Bcf below last year's level. It forecasts a 35-40 Bcf injection in next week's EIA report, below the seasonal norm of 74 Bcf.