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Indian Wholesale Inflation Rises 9.68% in May
US Markets

Indian Wholesale Inflation Rises 9.68% in May

India's annual wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate increased, the fastest since September 2022, as the effects of the war in the Middle East continue to drag.The country's wholesale price inflation rose to 9.68% year over year in May, faster than the slightly modified 8.26% pace recorded in the prior month, the Ministry of Commerce and Industry said Monday.The figure was higher than the consensus forecast of 9.10% tracked by Investing.com and 9.05% by economists polled by Reuters.The higher-than-expected reading could indicate bullishness for the Indian rupee, Investing.com said.Prices of wholesale fuel and power surged 30.33% in May, faster than the 24.89% rise in April, and the fastest since September 2022, the ministry said.Fuel prices drove the WPI in both April and May, the ministry said. The increases happened amid the war in Iran, which drove state-run oil marketing companies to raise retail fuel prices four times during the month, Reuters reported separately.Primary article prices jumped 4.99% during the month, up from a 3.78% increase in the previous month.Manufacturing prices grew 7.48%, faster than the 6.68% rise recorded in April and the fastest since August 2022.Food inflation surged 4.49%, a 14-month high, from 3.11% in April.Wholesale inflation is also higher than retail inflation, which jumped 3.93% in May, close to the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target for retail inflation within a tolerance band of 2% to 6%, Reuters said.The figure will not directly impact interest rates, Reuters said Monday, citing economists.The wholesale inflation release also debuted new indicators such as the output and trial producer price indices, as well as service PPIs for the banking, securiites, transaction, insurance, pension fund management, airlines, railways, and telecommunications.

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International

India's Wholesale Inflation Quickens to 9.68% in May

India's annual wholesale price index (WPI)-based inflation rate rose to 9.68% year over year in May, according to data from the Ministry of Commerce and Industry released Monday.The reading was higher than the consensus forecast of 9.10% tracked by Investing.com and compared with an 8.26% pace recorded in the prior month.

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Asia

US, Iran Reach Peace Agreement, Formal Signing Due Friday

U.S. and Iranian officials have confirmed a peace agreement to end the war and reopen the Strait of Hormuz, with a formal pact expected to be signed in Switzerland on Friday.U.S. President Donald Trump said in a post on Truth Social that the agreement with Iran was "complete" and authorized the immediate lifting of the U.S. naval blockade.Separately, Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi confirmed that an agreement had been reached to end the conflict, according to multiple media reports.Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif, who mediated the negotiations, said in a post on X that the peace accord would be signed on Friday, June 19.Sharif added that both sides had agreed to an immediate and permanent cessation of military operations across all fronts, including in Lebanon.

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World Bank Cuts Growth Forecasts for Japan, China as Middle East Conflict Weighs on Asia
US Markets

World Bank Cuts Growth Forecasts for Japan, China as Middle East Conflict Weighs on Asia

The World Bank trimmed its 2026 growth forecasts for Japan and China on Thursday, citing rising energy prices, disrupted trade, and weakening demand stemming from the conflict in the Middle East.Global growth is forecast to slow to 2.5% in 2026, down from 2.9% in 2025, the weakest pace since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, according to the organization's June 2026 Global Economic Prospects report.The World Bank cut its 2026 growth forecast for Japan to 0.7% from its January estimate of 0.8% as rising energy prices weigh on consumption and exports. In 2025, the economy grew by an estimated 1.1%.GDP growth is expected to recover modestly to 0.9% in 2027 before easing again to 0.8% in 2028 as domestic demand improves on the back of lower inflation and higher wages.Meanwhile, growth in East Asia and the Pacific is projected to moderate to 4.2% in 2026 from 5% in 2025, with China's deceleration driven by subdued domestic demand amid low consumer confidence, the continued property sector adjustment, and a soft labor market, the World Bank said.Growth in China is projected to ease to 4.2% in 2026 from the estimated 5% increase in 2025. The latest forecast is down from the 4.4% estimate the World Bank issued in January.Momentum is expected to accelerate to 4.3% in 2027 before decelerating again in 2028 to 4.2%, "as energy prices ease while diminishing returns to capital, high debt, and demographic pressures continue to lower China's potential growth."Elsewhere, in South Asia, growth is projected to soften to 6.3% in 2026 from 7% in 2025, mainly reflecting the adverse impact of the Middle East conflict, including shortages of energy and agricultural products that put upward pressure on energy and food prices, according to the World Bank.However, the latest forecast for the region was up from 6.2% in January.Growth in India is projected to moderate to 6.6% in fiscal year 2026/27 from 7.7% in 2025, reflecting a slowdown in private demand growth as a result of higher energy prices and other input costs, though a reduction in Goods and Services Tax rates is expected to provide some support for consumer spending.In January, the World Bank estimated India's GDP growth for 2026 at 6.5%."Developing countries have faced a series of challenges over the last decade," said Ajay Banga, President of the World Bank Group."In response to the current shock, we are providing liquidity where it is needed now - and we are ready with additional financing, guarantees, and private-sector solutions if pressures deepen. Our job is to help countries steady the ship, keep reforms moving, and emerge stronger on the other side."Brent crude oil prices are projected to average $94 a barrel in 2026, 36% above 2025 levels, assuming that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains severely disrupted through July, the World Bank said.The institution warned that if energy supply disruptions prove more severe than currently assumed and are exacerbated by substantial financial stress, global growth could fall to 1.3% in 2026, with inflation forecast to rise to 4.4%.

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Asia

Market Chatter: Asia May Face Stagflation Amid Middle East Crisis, ADB President Says

With the war in the Middle East driving up inflation in global economies, Asian economies are at risk of stagflation, Nikkei Asia reported Thursday, citing Asian Development Bank President Masato Kanda.As inflation pressures mount, "There is now a risk of stagflation spiral" due to "declines in demand through lower real wages, and increases in debt burdens from higher interest rates," Kanda told the news outlet on the sidelines of Nikkei's annual Future of Asia forum.According to Kanda, higher shipping, energy, and input costs will lead to a further rise in consumer prices in Asia. There was a risk that the supply chain system would "physically stop functioning," he said.Asian countries are especially impacted by the energy crisis arising from the Middle East war, as they are highly dependent on energy imports that come in through the Strait of Hormuz, the report added."In addition to diversification of the destination of oil and gas, accelerated use of renewable energy and safe nuclear power, as well as stronger energy saving, should have been promoted," Kanda said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Market Chatter: Indian Central Bank's Net-short Dollar Book Rose Sharply Prior to Support Measure

India's central bank increased its commitments to deliver dollars in May as part of efforts to support the local currency, Bloomberg reported Monday.The Reserve Bank of India's net-short dollar book, a measure of forward-market commitments, rose sharply to about $110 billion to $115 billion last month from $95.3 billion in April, the report said, citing people familiar with the developments.The RBI's intervention intensified after the rupee weakened to a record low on May 20, though the currency finally received some breathing room after the government scrapped taxes on overseas investment in the country's bonds.The move, announced recently, spurred the largest inflow in almost a year to India's index-eligible bonds, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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Asia

Market Chatter: India Seeks US Assurance on Section 301 Probes Ahead of Trade Deal

India has requested guarantees from the United States that it will not face Section 301 investigations after signing a trade agreement, Bloomberg News reported on Tuesday.A final deal will only follow the completion of US probes into forced labor and excess capacity, though their timelines remain uncertain, the newswire said.Officials in New Delhi are also seeking preferential tariff treatment over competitors, while the US has proposed tariffs of at least 10% on imports from 60 nations, the publication said.An interim pact, initially expected by March, was delayed due to a US Supreme Court ruling, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Inflation Prints; GDP Estimates; and Trade Balance

For the week ahead in Asia, inflation, trade and growth data will be in focus as investors assess the region's economic momentum.The week opens with Japan's revised first-quarter GDP figures, followed by trade data from China and Taiwan on Tuesday.Mid-week, China's consumer and producer inflation reports will dominate headlines, while Japan will release producer price data.Thursday will be led by unemployment figures from South Korea and Malaysia, before Friday brings India's inflation report.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 8The week was off to a relatively light, but notable start with Japan's first-quarter GDP growth rate.Japan's economy expanded at an annualized rate of 1.8% in the first quarter, according to final data released by the Cabinet Office. The reading was revised down from the preliminary estimate of 2.1% growth, but exceeded the market consensus forecast for a 1.3% increase, according to Trading Economics.The data comes as attention turns to the Bank of Japan's June 15-16 policy meeting, where policymakers are expected to consider another interest-rate increase. The growth figures are unlikely to derail expectations for further policy tightening.TUESDAY, June 9Data readouts will pick up Tuesday, starting with China's trade figures for May.Economists at ING said they expect China's exports to rise 19.5% year-on year and imports to gain 36.4% for a trade surplus of $86.5 billion. The surplus would be an increase from the $84.8 billion recorded in April, thanks in part to higher tech prices, which are boosting both export and import prices, ING said.Taiwan will similarly report trade figures, with ING expecting the island nation's trade surplus to rise to $15.5 billion from $14.4 billion in April. "Strong export orders from previous months suggest external demand remains robust amid the AI boom," ING said in a preview.Markets will be watching for any revisions to South Korea's first-quarter GDP growth rate when the Bank of Korea releases its final estimate on Tuesday.The central bank's advance estimate indicated that South Korea's real GDP increased 3.6% annually and 1.7% on a quarterly basis.In Australia, a pair of reports will capture business and consumer sentiment, while in the Philippines, unemployment stats will be due.Other key data scheduled for the day include Japan's machine tool orders.WEDNESDAY, June 10China's consumer and producer price inflation will dominate headlines Wednesday.Consumer prices are expected to show an uptick of 1.3% year on year in May from 1.2% a month prior, reflecting higher manufacturers' input and output prices due to the Middle East conflict, the Wall Street Journal reported.Japan will similarly report its May producer prices, with analysts expecting the PPI to accelerate to 5.5% year on year from 4.9% in April, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Indonesia will release its May consumer confidence report on the same day.THURSDAY, June 11Unemployment data from South Korea and Malaysia will be the highlight of the day.According to Trading Economics, South Korea's unemployment rate could remain unchanged at 2.80% in May. The platform similarly forecasted that Malaysia's unemployment would remain steady at 2.90%, a level it has held since November 2025.A forward-looking report on consumer inflation expectations will be due in Australia. According to Trading Economics, consumer inflation expectations could rise to 6.5% for June from the 5.6% estimated in May.Meanwhile, Indonesia will report its retail sales stats for April.FRIDAY, June 12India's May inflation data will be in the news Friday.Economists at ING said they expect consumer prices to pick up to 3.9% year on year from the 3.48% recorded in the month prior due to a rise in gasoline prices. Still, the figure would be below the Reserve Bank of India's 4% target."The key risk to the outlook lies in potential second-round effects on food inflation. Fertiliser shortages, alongside the rising probability of an El Niño event, could exert upward pressure on food prices in the coming months and warrant close monitoring," ING said in a preview.Friday will also feature industrial production reports from Japan, Malaysia, and Hong Kong, with Malaysia additionally reporting its retail sales stats for April.In Thailand, the consumer confidence report for May will be due.On the activity front, the Business NZ manufacturing purchasing managers' index report will be due in New Zealand. CommBank said it expects manufacturing activity in May to stabilize, or even lift somewhat, given a decline in fuel prices over late April and May.The Business NZ PMI previously dropped to 50.5 in April from 52.8 in March.

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Asia

Market Chatter: Dubai-based Apparel Group Considers India IPO

Dubai-headquartered fashion and lifestyle firm Apparel Group is eyeing an initial public offering (IPO) for its Indian unit Apparel Group in Mumbai, Bloomberg News reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.The valuation and the size of the IPO are yet to be announced, but banker appointments are being anticipated soon, the people told the news agency. The IPO could take place later in 2026 or in early 2027, the report said.The company's India unit operates over 300 stores across more than 50 cities and manages over 20 brands in the country. Its portfolio includes brands such as Charles & Keith, Dolce & Gabbana Beauty, Levi's Kids, Victoria's Secret, Aldo, Crocs, Tim Hortons, Inglot, Call It Spring, Nike Littles, and Jordan Kids, according to the report.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

India 'Remains Engaged' With U.S. Over Additional US Tariffs

The Indian government "remains engaged" with Washington after the Office of U.S. Trade Representative proposed additional taxes on imports from 60 economies, including India, over forced-labor trade practices.India's commerce ministry said Wednesday that it remains in talks with the U.S. over the matter as part of Section 301 proceedings, and is simultaneously holding discussions on finalizing a broader trade agreement announced in February.The USTR has proposed a 10% additional tariff for economies that have partially enforced bans on the importation of certain forced labor goods, and a 12.5% tariff for all others, according to the recently announced proposal.

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Asia

Several Asian Countries Face Additional US Tariffs Over Forced-Labor Trade Practices

Several Asian countries could soon face additional duties on some of their exports to the U.S. following Washington's probe into imports produced using forced labor, the Office of U.S. Trade Representative (USTR) said Tuesday.The USTR said Bangladesh, Cambodia, China, Hong Kong, India, Japan, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, South Korea, Sri Lanka, Taiwan, Thailand, Indonesia, Pakistan, and Vietnam are among the 54 economies that have failed to impose and effectively enforce a forced-labor import ban.The USTR proposed a 10% additional tariff for economies that have partially enforced bans on the importation of certain forced-labor goods and a 12.5% tariff for the rest.

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Asian Banking Sector Surges Past Automobiles to Lead May Activity Growth, S&P Global Survey Finds
US Markets

Asian Banking Sector Surges Past Automobiles to Lead May Activity Growth, S&P Global Survey Finds

Most Asian business sectors expanded in May, with banking overtaking the automobile industry, according to the S&P Global Asia Sector PMI released on Wednesday.Leading the upturn for the first time in seven months, the banking sector expanded at its second-steepest rate in over five and a half years. The growth follows a previous S&P Global forecast warning that credit losses in the Asia-Pacific banking sector could surge by approximately $180 billion due to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.The automobile sector, last month's top performer, slipped to second place, though its pace of growth remained historically high.Of the 18 sectors monitored, only forestry and paper products, alongside construction materials, recorded a contraction in new orders; however, these declines were softer than in the previous month. In contrast, the transportation sector posted the strongest surge in new orders, despite looming concerns over U.S.-Iran negotiations.Volatility persists in the energy and oil industries due to the precarious state of U.S.-Iran talks aimed at ending the Middle East conflict."Oil prices received a boost yesterday as talks between the US and Iran appeared to break down -- again. This has become a common pattern in recent months, and there are still plenty of mixed messages," ING'S Warren Patterson and Ewa Manthey said in a Tuesday note. "As a result, oil prices continue to be whipsawed by quickly changing headlines."Operating expenses increased across all 18 sectors. S&P Global highlighted that real estate recorded a renewed rise in input prices, while the chemicals sector posted the sharpest cost inflation rate.All sectors increased their selling prices except for the consumer services sector.

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International

Banking Sector Growth Fastest Among 18 Broader Asian Sectors in May, S&P Data Shows

Banking sector growth was the fastest among the 18 broader Asian sectors in May, with activity expanding at the strongest pace in seven months, S&P Global said in a Wednesday release.Output growth was recorded across 16 of the 18 monitored Asian sectors last month, which was unchanged from April. Only the forestry and paper products, and construction materials sectors incurred declines from April, along with lower new orders received, S&P said.New orders rose across the remaining 16 sectors last month, led by the transportation sector.Employment increased in 10 of 18 sectors, with software & services and technology equipment experiencing the strongest hiring, while insurance witnessed a cutdown in employed staff.

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Asia

Market Chatter: South Korea Overtakes India to Become World's Sixth-Largest Stock Market

South Korea's equity market surpassed India to become the world's sixth-largest stock market, owing to a surge in semiconductor stocks, Bloomberg News reported Tuesday.The total market capitalization of South Korea-listed firms jumped 86% so far in 2026 to $5 trillion, while the Indian stock market's total capitalization has decreased to $4.8 trillion, the report said.Samsung Electronics (KRX:005930) and SK Hynix (KRX:000660), both now valued at over $1 trillion, fueled the country's stock market rally through their dominance in AI memory chips, the report said.This helped the Korea Composite Stock Price Index or Kospi, more than double so far this year and pushed South Korea ahead of Canada, Germany, the UK, and France in terms of market capitalization, Bloomberg said.Despite South Korea's larger stock market, India's economy remains considerably bigger at $4.15 trillion as compared to the former's $1.93 trillion, the report said, citing International Monetary Fund estimates.Shares of Samsung Electronics rose 1% while those of SK Hynix declined nearly 3% in recent trade.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Manufacturing Activity; Policy Rate Decision; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, manufacturing activity will be in focus as S&P Global releases a broad mix of purchasing managers' index reports covering multiple economies.The week opens with a flurry of manufacturing PMI readings for May, followed by inflation data from South Korea and Indonesia on Tuesday.Mid-week, Australia's first-quarter GDP report will take center stage, while markets will also watch a heavy batch of readouts from Vietnam.Thursday will be lighter, led by Australia's April trade report, before Friday brings India's policy rate decision and GDP figures and inflation readouts from multiple regions.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 1The week kicked off with a flurry of S&P Global's purchasing managers' index (PMI) reports covering May manufacturing activity across the region.China's manufacturing activity eased after the seasonally adjusted RatingDog China General Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8, compared with 52.2 in the previous month and the consensus estimate of 51.4 from Investing.com.Data from the National Bureau of Statistic similarly showed factory activity easing, with the official purchasing managers' index falling to a neutral 50 from 50.3 in April.A reading above 50 means growth, while a reading below 50 indicates contraction.Manufacturing activity similarly slowed in Australia as new orders fell sharply for a third consecutive month amid rising costs and ongoing supply-chain disruptions linked to the war in the Middle East.In contrast, Japan's manufacturing production expanded, with the latest S&P Global Japan Manufacturing PMI coming in at 54.5, compared with 55.1 in April, matching the flash data.South Korean manufacturing output also expanded during the month, hitting its highest in five years due to a rise in production and new order volumes, S&P Global said.India, Taiwan and Vietnam were also among the regions that experienced improved output during May.Meanwhile, The Philippines' manufacturing activity returned to growth in May as stronger output and a recovery in new orders offset continued weakness in exports.Moving ahead, the Melbourne Institute said its monthly inflation gauge fell in May after two consecutive monthly increases, driven largely by a decline in transport costs. The monthly cost of living also declined in May, particularly for self-funded retirees.Elsewhere, South Korea recorded a trade surplus of $26.9 billion in May, a new all-time high, and marking the third straight month of more than $20 billion in trade surplus.TUESDAY, June 2Focus shifts Tuesday to inflation data coming in from South Korea.Economists at ING said consumer prices could reach 3% year on year in May, reflecting higher input costs that are likely to be passed on to consumers.Pipeline cost pressures are also likely to reflect in Indonesia's inflation print due Tuesday, with ANZ expecting prices to tick up to 3% from 2.42% in the prior month, the Wall Street Journal reported.Trade figures due in Indonesia the same day could also show moderating exports as the effects of front-loaded demand fade and commodity prices soften, the WSJ said, citing an RHB economist.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its monthly manufacturing PMIs for Indonesia, Malaysia, and Thailand. The Singapore Institute of Purchasing and Materials Management's PMI report is also expected.Lastly, Hong Kong will release its retail sales stats for April.WEDNESDAY, June 3Australia's first-quarter gross domestic product (GDP) data will dominate headlines Wednesday.Both Westpac and CommBank said they expect growth to have moderated during the first three months of the year, though their estimates differed.CommBank forecast a 0.2% quarterly rise in GDP, while Westpac projected 0.5%; both would be slower than the 0.8% growth recorded in the final quarter of 2025.Neighboring New Zealand will disclose first-quarter export and import price stats.Markets will also be following a speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda for clues on the central bank's next interest-rate hike.Wednesday also features a heavy slate of macro data from Vietnam, including inflation, balance of trade, industrial production, and retail sales.Trading Economics expects Vietnam's May inflation to accelerate to 6% from 5.46% in April. Meanwhile, the data platform estimated the country's trade deficit could widen to $3.4 billion from $3.28 billion a month prior.Meanwhile, S&P Global will release the next batch of its PMI reports covering composite and services activity in China, India, Japan, Australia, and Hong Kong.THURSDAY, June 4Thursday will be relatively light on readouts, with Australia's April trade figures among the handful of releases of note.Australia is expected to post a trade surplus of A$2.6 billion in April, rebounding from a A$1.8 billion deficit in March - its first shortfall since late 2017, Westpac said in a preview.According to the bank, major commodity exports appeared to have increased notably during the period after recording three consecutive monthly declines.In Singapore, S&P Global's monthly PMI will be due, while Thailand will release a business confidence report.FRIDAY, June 5The tail end of the week brings a policy rate decision in India, which will also release its quarterly GDP growth figures.The Reserve Bank of India is expected to hold rates at 5.25% but could signal hawkish sentiment during its vote, the WSJ reported, citing a UOB economist.Meanwhile, a Trading Economics consensus placed the country's GDP growth rate at 7.3%, down marginally from the 7.8% recorded in the final quarter of 2025.ANZ Research said the economy stayed broadly healthy in the fiscal fourth quarter, although growth eased slightly in March as manufacturing, exports and profit margins came under pressure due to global disruptions, the WSJ reported.Taiwan is set to report monthly inflation data, with ING expecting consumer prices to rise above the 2% target for the first time since April 2025. The bank expects inflation to accelerate to 2.2% year on year in May from 1.7% in April, reflecting Taiwan's reliance on imported energy, which leaves the economy vulnerable to higher global prices."We expect inflation to peak toward the middle of this year, raising the risks for a potential central bank rate hike at the coming meetings," ING said in a preview.Thailand and the Philippines will similarly report their respective inflation rates for May, with the latter also releasing industrial production stats.Lastly, Singapore will report its retail sales figures for April.

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Asia

Market Chatter: US, Iran Reach Tentative 60-Day Ceasefire Extension

The U.S. and Iran have tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire for two months while initiating new negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, fueling optimism that the ongoing three-month conflict may soon end, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the discussions.The anonymous source confirmed a prior Axios report, though President Donald Trump has not yet signed off on the terms, the newswire said.While both sides have previously celebrated progress and Trump has often claimed a deal was imminent, the impasse has repeatedly persisted, the publication said.Vice President JD Vance told reporters that the two nations are exchanging proposals on specific language regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, and noted that Iran appears to be engaging in good faith, with tangible progress underway, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Policy Rate Decisions, Inflation Prints and GDP Reports

Asia's economic calendar this week features a mix of inflation data, interest rate decisions, GDP releases and industrial figures across the region.The week opens with Singapore's GDP and inflation data, plus Thailand's trade figures, followed on Tuesday by Taiwan's industrial production and retail sales reports.Mid-week, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision and Australia's inflation print. On Thursday, the Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision, while Hong Kong releases trade data and India reports industrial and manufacturing output figures.Friday will be the busiest day for macro releases, led by a batch of key indicators from Japan. The week wraps up with China's PMI readings on Sunday.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 25Singapore's economy grew 6.0% year over year in the first quarter, government data showed, beating the 4.6% flash estimate and accelerating from the 5.7% growth in Q4.The expansion was driven by strong performances in the wholesale trade, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors.Meanwhile, the city-state's annual inflation rate held steady at 1.8% in April, unchanged from March but below market expectations of 2%.Core inflation, on the other hand, eased to 1.4% in April from 1.7% a month prior.In Thailand, exports surged 23.1% year over year to $31.6 billion in April, accelerating from an 18.7% increase in March and beating forecasts of 16.2%.Imports likewise strengthened, expanding 45% in April to $41.6 billion, compared with a rise of 35.7% a month prior.As a result, the trade deficit ballooned to $10.02 billion in April from $3.3 billion a year earlier, far above forecasts of a $5.1 billion shortfall.TUESDAY, May 26Singapore will release its April industrial production data, while Taiwan is due to report both industrial production and retail sales figures for the month.WEDNESDAY, May 27New Zealand's central bank will hold its policy meeting, with analysts expecting no change to the country's official cash rate of 2.25%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Australia is set to release inflation figures on the same day. Consumer prices rose 4.6% year on year in March, the fastest pace since September 2023, and are expected to accelerate to 5.1% in April as oil prices climb amid the Middle East conflict.Meanwhile, China will report its industrial profits for April. A pair of confidence reports covering business and consumer sentiment will be due in South Korea and Taiwan, respectively.THURSDAY, May 28The Bank of Korea is set to meet for its policy rate decision, with markets watching for any change to its current 2.5% benchmark rate amid inflation and growth pressures linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Hong Kong will release its monthly trade figures. The April reading could show a narrowing of the trade deficit to HK$46 billion from HK$89.1 billion in March, Trading Economics forecasted.Meanwhile, India will report its industrial and manufacturing production data for April.Markets will also watch New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence report for May, after the index dropped to -10.6 in April -- its first negative reading since August 2023 -- as the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment.FRIDAY, May 29Japan's usual end-of-month data deluge, which includes the release of inflation, unemployment rate, industrial production and retail sales, will provide insights into the country's economic health.Markets will also watch Taiwan's final Q1 GDP growth figures for any revision from the preliminary estimate, which showed the economy expanding by 13.7%.Other highlights include trade balance figures from Macau and the Philippines, and export and import price data from Singapore.Both South Korea and Thailand will report their monthly industrial production and retail sales stats, while Macau will report its unemployment rate for April.Lastly, a report capturing business confidence in April will be due in the Philippines.SUNDAY, May 31China, the biggest economy in Asia, will release its official May PMI data covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing and general activity.

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India Private-Sector Extends Robust Expansion in May: PMI Report
US Markets

India Private-Sector Extends Robust Expansion in May: PMI Report

Despite Middle East turmoils, rising crude prices and tempered exports, India's private-sector sustained a robust expansion in May, in both its factory and service sectors, reported S&P Global on Thursday.India's flash composite purchasing managers index (PMI), a combination of the nation's manufacturing and service sectors, logged at 58.1 in May, off marginally from 58.2 in April, but still striking well above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, reported S&P Global, citing its monthly survey.Although some new business orders waned modestly, the May PMI results "signaled another marked expansion in private sector activity," said S&P Global. India's composite PMI has registered in positive territory since the end of the pandemic era, in 2022.India's flash manufacturing PMI declined to 54.3 in May from 54.7 in April, while the flash manufacturing PMI output index slipped to 56.6 from 56.9.While both manufacturing PMIs pointed to expansion, the May results were among the weakest sector reports in nearly four years, said S&P Global.In contrast, India's flash PMI for services posted at 58.9 in May, inching up from 58.8 in April and indicating a "pick up in growth" in that sector, added the business research outfit.India's private sector managers did report rising cost of operation in May, and felt unable at times to boost prices to compensate, due to competitive pressures."Survey participants reported higher (input) prices for energy, food, fuel, gas, iron, leather, oil, plastics, rubber, steel and transportation," said S&P Global. "Although Indian companies tried to cover increases in cost burdens by lifting selling prices, they did so with a greater degree of caution."India's sales in global markets were higher, but decelerating in May. "There was a notably softer expansion in new export ordersacross India's private sector economy in May, the weakest in19 months," said S&P Global.Despite challenges, "business confidence remained strongly positive in May, with the overall level of positive sentiment remaining above its long-run average despite retreating to a three-month low," added S&P Global.The flash India PMI was compiled by S&P Global from surveys received from 400 manufacturers and 400 service providers from May 8 through May 18.

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International

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Moves, Inflation Data, Trade Numbers and GDP Reports

For this week in Asia, the economic calendar features a busy slate of macro releases across the region.The week begins with a slew of closely watched indicators from China, including industrial production and unemployment data.On Tuesday, markets turn to Japan's first-quarter GDP estimates and Malaysia's April inflation print.Wednesday features policy decisions in Indonesia and China, along with trade data from Taiwan.Thursday brings Japan's latest trade figures and Australia's closely watched labor market report. On Friday, Japan returns to the spotlight with its April inflation print.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 18The week kicked off with a flurry of macro releases from China.Industrial production: A 4.1% year-over-year expansion was recorded in April, sharply slowing from the 5.7% growth in March and way below expectations of a 5.9% rise.Retail sales: Growth decelerated to 0.2% year on year in April, versus 1.7% a month prior.Unemployment: The rate eased to 5.2% in April from 5.4% a month earlier.Meanwhile, prices of new residential properties in China's first-tier cities grew 0.1% month on month in April, decelerating from the 0.2% expansion in March.Chinese investments in real estate development fell 13.7% year on year to 2.397 trillion yuan between January and April.Outside China, Thailand reported that its gross domestic product grew at a faster rate of 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 2.5% in the last three months of 2025.In Singapore, April trade showed a 24.5% year on year rise in non-oil domestic exports, extending the 15.3% increase in the previous month.Elsewhere, New Zealand's services sector showed a modest improvement in April but remained in contraction, with persistent cost pressures and global shipping disruptions continuing to weigh on sentiment, according to BusinessNZ.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 48.9 in April from 46.2 in March. A reading below the 50-point mark points to contraction.TUESDAY, May 19Markets will turn their attention to Japan's preliminary first-quarter GDP.Economists at ING said they expect the economy to grow at a similar rate as the previous quarter's 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The war's impact on GDP should be minimal in 1Q26," the bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, Malaysia will disclose its April inflation print, with Trading Economics expecting prices to rise at a faster pace than the 1.7% year over year growth seen in March. According to the data platform, Malaysia's CPI could rise at a rate of 2.7%.In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes will add color to the central bank's recent decision to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%.CommBank said the minutes may provide more details on the board's discussion and how members were assessing the impact of the conflict around Iran.A consumer confidence report, due for release the same day, will capture sentiment over the most recent RBA rate hike and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Lastly, Hong Kong will report April unemployment stats on the same day.WEDNESDAY, May 20Bank Indonesia will meet for its monetary policy meeting and could raise rates by 25 basis points to 5% amid a depreciation of the local currency and a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which bodes unfavorably for the Indonesian rupiah, ING forecasted.China will similarly set its one-year and five-year loan prime rates, with markets expecting no change in the prevailing rates of 3% and 3.5%, respectively.Trade data from Taiwan and Malaysia will be due.Taiwan is once again expected to show a "strong reading" when it releases April export orders data, with growth topping 54% year on year, ING said in a preview.The island nation started the year "quite strongly" amid external demand for its main high-tech products, which is expected to continue, according to the note.Meanwhile, Malaysia's trade surplus is expected to narrow to 10.5 billion ringgit from 24.6 billion ringgit in the month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.The Reuters Tankan Index for May, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.THURSDAY, May 21Japan will release several economic indicators on Thursday, including April trade data and March machinery orders.The country is expected to report a trade deficit of 29.7 billion yen for the month, reversing from a surplus of 667 billion yen in March, according to a Trading Economics consensus.New Zealand will similarly report its April trade balance, with analysts forecasting a trade surplus of around NZ$840 million, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Neighboring Australia will report labor data for April. Westpac expects unemployment to remain at 4.3%.Elsewhere, Hong Kong will report April inflation data while Macau will disclose first-quarter retail sales stats. In South Korea, the April producer price inflation data will be due.On the activity front, S&P Global will release flash purchasing managers' index reports covering May manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Australia and Japan.FRIDAY, May 22Japan's April inflation print will capture headlines on Friday, giving markets a look into how the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is impacting the economy.Economists at ING said energy effects may have a limited impact on growth but a greater impact on inflation, which is expected to clock in at 1.8% year on year in April -- up from 1.5% in March."Higher energy costs are expected to increase overall inflation. The impact, though, will likely be still less significant than that observed in other Asian and developed countries," ING said in a note.Inflation data will also be due in Macau.Meanwhile, Taiwan could see a marginal drop in its unemployment when it releases April labor stats. According to Trading Economics, Taiwan's jobless rate could go down to 3.3% from 3.35%.New Zealand is expected to see a "muted" rise in real retail sales when reporting its Q1 data, Westpac said in a preview. The bank expects a rise of 0.2% for the first three months of the year, versus the 0.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter. "The latter part of March saw fuel prices rising sharply, and that has been a drag on spending," Westpac said.Lastly, South Korea will release a report capturing consumer confidence for May. ING said it expects consumer sentiment to deteriorate further amid inflation hikes and energy headwinds.

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India's Wholesale Inflation Accelerates in April
US Markets

India's Wholesale Inflation Accelerates in April

Pushed by rising fuel and power bills, India's wholesale prices rose by 8.30% on year in April, the highest gain since late 2022, reported the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MCI) on Thursday.India's wholesale price index (WPI) in April alone rose 3.86% from March, lifted by fuel and power charges that rose 18.22% on month, in the wake of mounting fuel shortages occasioned by the closure of the Strait of Hormuz in March.Crude petroleum prices rose 16.99% in April from March, and by 88.06% from a year earlier, according to officials.Petrol (gasoline) prices rose 24.49% in April from March, and by 32.40% from a year earlier, added the MCI.India's WPI is distinct from the consumer price index (CPI), which measures prices in retail locations, faced by ordinary shoppers.The WPI gauges prices of goods sold in bulk at the wholesale level, before products reach the retail market. The WPI provides clues into cost pressures within the supply chain and production sectors, and is considered one precursor to subsequent changes in the CPI.In contrast to wholesale fuel bills, India's WPI food index rose a relatively modest 2.31% in April on year, while that for manufactured products rose 4.62% on year, reported MCI.The April wholesale price report will likely be closely reviewed by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the nation's central bank.India's CPI rose 3.48% on year in April, reported officials, still within the central bank's target range on the index of 4% plus or minus 2%.At its April policy session, the RBI held its key policy interest rate steady at 5.25%, and has not altered the rate this year.The next RBI Monetary Policy Committee meeting is slated for June 3 through 5.

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