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Market Chatter: US, Iran Reach Tentative 60-Day Ceasefire Extension

The U.S. and Iran have tentatively agreed to extend a ceasefire for two months while initiating new negotiations over Tehran's nuclear program, fueling optimism that the ongoing three-month conflict may soon end, Bloomberg News reported on Thursday, citing a source familiar with the discussions.The anonymous source confirmed a prior Axios report, though President Donald Trump has not yet signed off on the terms, the newswire said.While both sides have previously celebrated progress and Trump has often claimed a deal was imminent, the impasse has repeatedly persisted, the publication said.Vice President JD Vance told reporters that the two nations are exchanging proposals on specific language regarding Iran's nuclear capabilities, and noted that Iran appears to be engaging in good faith, with tangible progress underway, the report said.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Asia Week Ahead: Policy Rate Decisions, Inflation Prints and GDP Reports

Asia's economic calendar this week features a mix of inflation data, interest rate decisions, GDP releases and industrial figures across the region.The week opens with Singapore's GDP and inflation data, plus Thailand's trade figures, followed on Tuesday by Taiwan's industrial production and retail sales reports.Mid-week, attention turns to the Reserve Bank of New Zealand's policy decision and Australia's inflation print. On Thursday, the Bank of Korea will announce its rate decision, while Hong Kong releases trade data and India reports industrial and manufacturing output figures.Friday will be the busiest day for macro releases, led by a batch of key indicators from Japan. The week wraps up with China's PMI readings on Sunday.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 25Singapore's economy grew 6.0% year over year in the first quarter, government data showed, beating the 4.6% flash estimate and accelerating from the 5.7% growth in Q4.The expansion was driven by strong performances in the wholesale trade, manufacturing, and finance and insurance sectors.Meanwhile, the city-state's annual inflation rate held steady at 1.8% in April, unchanged from March but below market expectations of 2%.Core inflation, on the other hand, eased to 1.4% in April from 1.7% a month prior.In Thailand, exports surged 23.1% year over year to $31.6 billion in April, accelerating from an 18.7% increase in March and beating forecasts of 16.2%.Imports likewise strengthened, expanding 45% in April to $41.6 billion, compared with a rise of 35.7% a month prior.As a result, the trade deficit ballooned to $10.02 billion in April from $3.3 billion a year earlier, far above forecasts of a $5.1 billion shortfall.TUESDAY, May 26Singapore will release its April industrial production data, while Taiwan is due to report both industrial production and retail sales figures for the month.WEDNESDAY, May 27New Zealand's central bank will hold its policy meeting, with analysts expecting no change to the country's official cash rate of 2.25%, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Australia is set to release inflation figures on the same day. Consumer prices rose 4.6% year on year in March, the fastest pace since September 2023, and are expected to accelerate to 5.1% in April as oil prices climb amid the Middle East conflict.Meanwhile, China will report its industrial profits for April. A pair of confidence reports covering business and consumer sentiment will be due in South Korea and Taiwan, respectively.THURSDAY, May 28The Bank of Korea is set to meet for its policy rate decision, with markets watching for any change to its current 2.5% benchmark rate amid inflation and growth pressures linked to the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Hong Kong will release its monthly trade figures. The April reading could show a narrowing of the trade deficit to HK$46 billion from HK$89.1 billion in March, Trading Economics forecasted.Meanwhile, India will report its industrial and manufacturing production data for April.Markets will also watch New Zealand's ANZ Business Confidence report for May, after the index dropped to -10.6 in April -- its first negative reading since August 2023 -- as the Middle East conflict weighed on sentiment.FRIDAY, May 29Japan's usual end-of-month data deluge, which includes the release of inflation, unemployment rate, industrial production and retail sales, will provide insights into the country's economic health.Markets will also watch Taiwan's final Q1 GDP growth figures for any revision from the preliminary estimate, which showed the economy expanding by 13.7%.Other highlights include trade balance figures from Macau and the Philippines, and export and import price data from Singapore.Both South Korea and Thailand will report their monthly industrial production and retail sales stats, while Macau will report its unemployment rate for April.Lastly, a report capturing business confidence in April will be due in the Philippines.SUNDAY, May 31China, the biggest economy in Asia, will release its official May PMI data covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing and general activity.

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Moves, Inflation Data, Trade Numbers and GDP Reports

For this week in Asia, the economic calendar features a busy slate of macro releases across the region.The week begins with a slew of closely watched indicators from China, including industrial production and unemployment data.On Tuesday, markets turn to Japan's first-quarter GDP estimates and Malaysia's April inflation print.Wednesday features policy decisions in Indonesia and China, along with trade data from Taiwan.Thursday brings Japan's latest trade figures and Australia's closely watched labor market report. On Friday, Japan returns to the spotlight with its April inflation print.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 18The week kicked off with a flurry of macro releases from China.Industrial production: A 4.1% year-over-year expansion was recorded in April, sharply slowing from the 5.7% growth in March and way below expectations of a 5.9% rise.Retail sales: Growth decelerated to 0.2% year on year in April, versus 1.7% a month prior.Unemployment: The rate eased to 5.2% in April from 5.4% a month earlier.Meanwhile, prices of new residential properties in China's first-tier cities grew 0.1% month on month in April, decelerating from the 0.2% expansion in March.Chinese investments in real estate development fell 13.7% year on year to 2.397 trillion yuan between January and April.Outside China, Thailand reported that its gross domestic product grew at a faster rate of 2.8% in the first quarter of 2026 from 2.5% in the last three months of 2025.In Singapore, April trade showed a 24.5% year on year rise in non-oil domestic exports, extending the 15.3% increase in the previous month.Elsewhere, New Zealand's services sector showed a modest improvement in April but remained in contraction, with persistent cost pressures and global shipping disruptions continuing to weigh on sentiment, according to BusinessNZ.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index rose to 48.9 in April from 46.2 in March. A reading below the 50-point mark points to contraction.TUESDAY, May 19Markets will turn their attention to Japan's preliminary first-quarter GDP.Economists at ING said they expect the economy to grow at a similar rate as the previous quarter's 0.3% on a seasonally adjusted basis. "The war's impact on GDP should be minimal in 1Q26," the bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, Malaysia will disclose its April inflation print, with Trading Economics expecting prices to rise at a faster pace than the 1.7% year over year growth seen in March. According to the data platform, Malaysia's CPI could rise at a rate of 2.7%.In Australia, the Reserve Bank of Australia's meeting minutes will add color to the central bank's recent decision to increase the official cash rate by 25 basis points to 4.35%.CommBank said the minutes may provide more details on the board's discussion and how members were assessing the impact of the conflict around Iran.A consumer confidence report, due for release the same day, will capture sentiment over the most recent RBA rate hike and the ongoing conflict in the Middle East.Lastly, Hong Kong will report April unemployment stats on the same day.WEDNESDAY, May 20Bank Indonesia will meet for its monetary policy meeting and could raise rates by 25 basis points to 5% amid a depreciation of the local currency and a shift in expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts, which bodes unfavorably for the Indonesian rupiah, ING forecasted.China will similarly set its one-year and five-year loan prime rates, with markets expecting no change in the prevailing rates of 3% and 3.5%, respectively.Trade data from Taiwan and Malaysia will be due.Taiwan is once again expected to show a "strong reading" when it releases April export orders data, with growth topping 54% year on year, ING said in a preview.The island nation started the year "quite strongly" amid external demand for its main high-tech products, which is expected to continue, according to the note.Meanwhile, Malaysia's trade surplus is expected to narrow to 10.5 billion ringgit from 24.6 billion ringgit in the month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.The Reuters Tankan Index for May, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.THURSDAY, May 21Japan will release several economic indicators on Thursday, including April trade data and March machinery orders.The country is expected to report a trade deficit of 29.7 billion yen for the month, reversing from a surplus of 667 billion yen in March, according to a Trading Economics consensus.New Zealand will similarly report its April trade balance, with analysts forecasting a trade surplus of around NZ$840 million, according to a Trading Economics consensus.Neighboring Australia will report labor data for April. Westpac expects unemployment to remain at 4.3%.Elsewhere, Hong Kong will report April inflation data while Macau will disclose first-quarter retail sales stats. In South Korea, the April producer price inflation data will be due.On the activity front, S&P Global will release flash purchasing managers' index reports covering May manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Australia and Japan.FRIDAY, May 22Japan's April inflation print will capture headlines on Friday, giving markets a look into how the energy shock from the Middle East conflict is impacting the economy.Economists at ING said energy effects may have a limited impact on growth but a greater impact on inflation, which is expected to clock in at 1.8% year on year in April -- up from 1.5% in March."Higher energy costs are expected to increase overall inflation. The impact, though, will likely be still less significant than that observed in other Asian and developed countries," ING said in a note.Inflation data will also be due in Macau.Meanwhile, Taiwan could see a marginal drop in its unemployment when it releases April labor stats. According to Trading Economics, Taiwan's jobless rate could go down to 3.3% from 3.35%.New Zealand is expected to see a "muted" rise in real retail sales when reporting its Q1 data, Westpac said in a preview. The bank expects a rise of 0.2% for the first three months of the year, versus the 0.9% growth recorded in the previous quarter. "The latter part of March saw fuel prices rising sharply, and that has been a drag on spending," Westpac said.Lastly, South Korea will release a report capturing consumer confidence for May. ING said it expects consumer sentiment to deteriorate further amid inflation hikes and energy headwinds.

India Services Sector Expansion Accelerates in April: PMI Report

Despite softening international demand, India's service sector enjoyed a robust expansion in April, reported S&P Global.The seasonally adjusted India services purchasing managers index (PMI) rose to 58.8 in April, up from 57.5 in March and striking further above the 50-mark that separates growth from expansion, said S&P Global, citing its monthly survey.Thanks to rising domestic demand, India's services sector in April showed the "strongest rate of expansion since last November," advised S&P Global.Consumer services led April's expansion in new orders and output, followed by transport, and then the information & communication sector, reported S&P Global.India's services managers in April were optimistic in their year-ahead outlooks. "Indian services companies were confident of a rise in output over the course of the coming 12 months. Optimism was supported by forecasts of demand growth, marketing initiatives and rising client inquiries," said S&P Global.India's service sector added to payrolls in April, as "rising volumes of new business boosted the recruitment of short-term staff and junior-level trainees," advised S&P Global.However, the level of optimism decreased modestly in April from March, "dampened by worries surrounding the war in the Middle East," noted S&P Global.The India services PMI for April was compiled by S&P Global from surveys sent to 400 service-sector companies from April 8 through April 28.Separately, India's composite PMI, a combination of the nation's services and manufacturing sectors, rose to 58.2 in April from 57.0 in March, added S&P Global.

Asian Industry Sustains Expansion in April: PMI Report

Despite headwinds from Persian Gulf turmoils, Asia's business sectors largely expanded in April, led by the automobile industry, reported S&P Global on Wednesday."Output growth was recorded across 16 of the 18 monitored Asian sectors in April. This figure was up from 15 in March, as metals & mining production returned to growth," said S&P Global, citing its surveys of regional economies.Showing strength in April was the automotive industry. "Leading the rankings for the first time in nearly two years was the automobiles & auto parts sector. The pace of output expansion in the sector quickened to the steepest since May 2024 and was rapid overall," explained S&P Global.Among the broader categories, consumer products did generally well in April."Consumer goods outperformed the other six tracked areas, with growth also supported by strong and accelerated expansions in output across the beverages & food and household & personal use products segments," added S&P Global.The tech and industrial sectors followed consumer goods on the upside, while the slowest expanding sectors were basic materials, financials and healthcare.In contrast to the general regional expansion, the forestry & paper products and construction materials sectors experienced softening in April, reported S&P Global.However, Asian business managers also reported rising and accelerating costs of operation in April."On the prices front, the latest data indicated that cost burdens rose in 17 of the 18 monitored sectors in April. Notably, the majority of these saw expenses increase at a stronger pace than in March," said S&P Global.Of the 18 monitored industries, only banks and real estate lowered output charges, said the credit-rating agency.The Asia Sector PMI indices were compiled by S&P Global from surveys received from 6,000 Asian private-sector companies.

Asia Week Ahead: PMI Reports; Central Bank Decisions; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with S&P Global's monthly purchasing managers' index reports, inflation prints, and central bank decisions across the region.Monday brings a slate of S&P Global manufacturing PMI reports for April, alongside Indonesia's inflation and trade figures.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rate decision, while Thailand and the Philippines release April inflation data.Wednesday features South Korea's April inflation print and New Zealand's first-quarter labor-market report, along with PMI readings from India, China, Hong Kong and Singapore.On Thursday, Malaysia's central bank decision will be in focus, alongside Taiwan's April inflation data and the Philippines' first-quarter GDP report.On Friday, Taiwan's April trade data and Malaysia's March industrial production figures will be due, before China closes out the week with April trade figures on Saturday.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, May 4The week kicked off with a slate of S&P Global purchasing managers' index reports covering manufacturing activity during April.Most economies in the region saw a rise in output despite the ongoing conflict in the Middle East which has pushed oil prices upwards.Malaysia's manufacturing sector expanded at its fastest pace in four years in April, supported by stronger output and a return to growth in new orders.The S&P Global Malaysia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index rose to 51.6 in April from 50.7 in March, marking a second straight month of expansion.Output grew at the fastest pace since December 2021, while new orders increased as firms and clients built safety stocks amid uncertainty linked to the Middle East war.Output activity also expanded in South Korea, India, and Taiwan, according to S&P Global.Meanwhile, Vietnam's manufacturing sector also expanded, albeit at a slower pace.The S&P Global Vietnam Manufacturing PMI slipped to 50.5 in April from 51.2 in March, a seven-month low, signalling a tenth straight month of expansion but only marginal growth.In contrast, Indonesia's manufacturing sector slipped into contraction in April as cost pressures intensified due to material shortages and delays linked to the Middle East conflict.The S&P Global Indonesia Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index fell to 49.1 in April from 50.1 in March, dropping below the 50 mark for the first time in nine months.Manufacturing activity similarly slipped in the Philippines as new orders fell sharply and cost pressures intensified.Indonesia released inflation figures, noting a 2.4% year on year rise in prices during April -- slower than the 3.5% recorded a month prior.The island state also booked a trade surplus of $5.55 billion in the first quarter, supported by a strong non-oil and gas balance despite higher import growth, according to official data released by Statistics Indonesia.The Melbourne Institute released its monthly inflation gauge, noting another increase in April, mainly driven by higher recreation-related prices. The monthly cost of living also increased in April, especially for employees and self-funded retirees.TUESDAY, May 5An interest rate decision in Australia will capture headlines on Tuesday.The Reserve Bank of Australia is likely to rate hikes by 25 basis points to 4.35% as persistent inflation pressures and rising fuel costs linked to Middle East supply disruptions keeps the central bank on a hawkish path even as global peers hold steady.Thailand and the Philippines will release inflation data for April.Economists at ING said they expect the Philippines' headline inflation to rise above 5% as the government passes on the impact of higher global oil prices onto consumers. The Philippines' inflation climbed to 4.1% in March.Thailand is similarly expected to see a rise in consumer prices during April. According to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics, headline inflation could clock in at 1.7% on an annual basis, compared with a 0.08% decline in March.First-quarter gross domestic growth data will be due in Indonesia. DBS said it was forecasting 5.6% growth for the quarter thanks to government spending and festive spending during the period, the Wall Street Journal reported.Hong Kong will similarly release its first-quarter advance GDP growth estimate on Tuesday.Meanwhile, March retail sales figures will be expected in Singapore.On the activity front, S&P Global will release PMI reports manufacturing activity in Thailand and services and composite activity in Australia.WEDNESDAY, May 6Another inflation print, this time in South Korea.Economists at ING said they expect consumer prices to rise at a faster pace in April despite attempts by Seoul to rein in the impact of rising oil costs on consumers. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated headline inflation could clock in at 2.6%.In March, South Korea's annual inflation rose to 2.2%, breaching the central bank's 2% target.First-quarter labor data from New Zealand will also be in the news.CommBank expects headline labor-market figures to remain weak, forecasting just 0.1% quarterly employment growth and a rise in unemployment to 5.5%, compared with Trading Economics consensus estimates of 0.3% employment growth and a 5.4% jobless rate for the first quarter."We do not envisage a labor market recovery until 2027, reflective of adverse impacts from geopolitical ructions," CommBank said in a preview.The Philippines will similarly release labor data for March, as well as industrial production figures.ING said it expects unemployment to edge higher. "On the industry side, weak soft construction activity should continue to weigh on growth," ING said.Additional S&P Global PMI reports covering services and composite activity in India and China, as well as overall activity in Hong Kong and Singapore, will be due.A business confidence report will be due in Thailand, while Hong Kong's March retail sales figures will also be on display.THURSDAY, May 7Malaysia's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision, with no change expected in the 2.75% policy rate.RHB Bank said it expects Bank Negara Malaysia to hold rates as growth remains steady and inflation remains in check, the Wall Street Journal reported.Taiwan's April inflation print will be due, with analysts looking for signs on how the Iran war was weighing in on prices. ING said it expects to see inflationary pressure picking up after limited pass through of energy prices in March.Australia will release March trade figures. The country's trade surplus could fall to A$4.45 billion from the A$5.69 billion recorded in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.CommBank said it expects the goods trade balance to decline due to rising fuel imports in the wake of the Iran conflict.The Philippines' first-quarter GDP growth figures will be expected. ING said the Philippines' economy could recover to a growth of 4.3% year on year thanks to favorable base effects and some pick-up in government spending.The Philippines' economy grew by 3% last quarter.Another confidence report covering consumer sentiment will be due in Thailand.FRIDAY, May 8Markets will be on the lookout for Taiwan's trade data for April.ING said it expects the island state's trade surplus to rise to $21.6 billion from $21.3 billion in the month prior. "We're looking for another strong month, with 59.3% YoY export growth and 35.5% import growth," ING said in a preview.In Malaysia, March industrial production figures will be due.S&P Global will release PMI reports covering services and composite activity in Japan.SATURDAY, May 9China will release its April trade data on Saturday.The world's second largest economy could record a surplus of $82.4 billion for the month, rising from $51.13 billion in March, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Analysts at DBS expect a sharp uptick in surplus, with export growth more than doubling to 8.4% from the 2.5% rise seen in March, the WSJ reported.

ADB Pledges $70 Billion For Energy, Digital Networks Across APAC as Middle East Conflict Batters Outlook

The Asian Development Bank is committing $70 billion to support new energy and digital infrastructure initiatives across the Asia-Pacific region by 2035.ADB President Masato Kanda announced the pledge on Sunday during the lender's annual meeting in Uzbekistan."Energy and digital access will define the region's future," said Kanda. "These two initiatives build the systems Asia and the Pacific need to grow, compete, and connect. By linking power grids and digital networks across borders, we can lower costs, expand opportunity, and bring reliable power and digital access to hundreds of millions of people."The pledge comes as the ADB sharply downgraded its forecast for the APAC region, citing energy disruptions from the ongoing Middle East conflict.On Wednesday, the ADB slashed its GDP growth outlook for developing Asia and the Pacific to 4.7% in 2026 from the previous 5.1% forecast.Inflation for 2026 is projected to accelerate to 5.2% in 2026 from 3% in 2025, before easing to 4.1% in 2027."Our revised outlook is a significant downward revision for growth and a sharp increase in inflation following a special update to reflect the deepening crisis," Kanda said at the time.The bank's new outlook assumes that oil prices average around $96 a barrel in 2026, well above the $69 per barrel average in January and February before the Middle East conflict. The bank expects oil prices to ease to around $80 per barrel in 2027."We are confronting systemic, long-lasting disruptions to global energy and trade networks, not just temporary volatility. ADB will remain an agile partner in protecting the region's economy; tracking fast-moving risks, and moving with urgency to scale up our support," Kanda added.Diesel prices across several Southeast Asian countries have increased by more than 100% since late February, the ADB said in its updated outlook report.The ADB also noted in its Wednesday report that the energy shock is also affecting fertilizer prices, which it said could add to food inflation, particularly for economies most dependent on Middle East imports.Against that backdrop, the ADB is committing $70 billion to build new energy and digital infrastructure in Asia and the Pacific by 2035.The largest investment, worth $50 billion, will be allocated towards cross-border power infrastructure to unlock renewable energy at scale, the ADB said.The project will focus on transmission and grid integration, including cross-border lines, substations, storage, and grid digitalization, according to the lender.By 2035, the bank aims to integrate about 20 gigawatts of renewable energy across borders, connect 22,000 circuit-kilometers of transmission lines, and cut regional power sector emissions by 15%, while improving energy access for around 200 million people.The remaining $20 billion will fund the Asia-Pacific Digital Highway, targeting digital corridors, data infrastructure, and AI-ready economies.The project aims to bring first-time broadband access to 200 million people and cut connectivity costs in remote and landlocked areas by about 40%.The South Korean government will back a new Center for AI Innovation and Development in Seoul with a $20 million contribution. The center will aim to train about 3 million people in digital and AI-related skills by 2035.Separately on Sunday, the ADB also unveiled a Critical Minerals-to-Manufacturing Financing Partnership Facility designed to help the region move beyond mining into higher-value industries such as processing, manufacturing, and recycling.Japan committed $20 million to the grant window, the UK contributed $1.6 million, and the Korea Eximbank and the Korean Trade Insurance Corporation each signed $500 million memorandums as the facility's first partners.

India's Industrial Production Shows Moderate Growth of 4.1% in March

Asia Week Ahead: Central Bank Decisions; Inflation Prints; and Trade Data

For the week ahead in Asia, the economic calendar is packed with major data releases, central bank decisions and inflation updates across the region.Monday brings China's first-quarter industrial profits data, as well as Malaysia's producer prices.On Tuesday, markets will turn to the Bank of Japan's interest rate decision, alongside trade figures from Hong Kong and Macao, and India's March production report.Wednesday features Thailand's central bank rate decision and Australia's closely watched quarterly inflation print, while Thursday brings China's official and private PMI readings.On Friday, Japan's Tokyo core inflation reading will be in focus, along with South Korea's April trade data.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 27The week kicked off with the release of China's industrial profits data for the first quarter.The total profits of China's industrial enterprises rose 15.5% year on year to 1.696 trillion yuan during the first three months of 2026, with increases seen in the mining, manufacturing, technology, and chemical industries.A drop in profits was witnessed in the utilities industry, as well as the electricity and heat and agricultural industries, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed.Singapore disclosed its manufacturing output stats for March, highlighting a 10.1% jump in production thanks to strong growth across almost all clusters.Malaysia's producer prices rose in March for the first time in a year, driven largely by a rebound in the mining sector, according to Trading Economics.Producer prices climbed 1.1% year on year, reversing a 3.4% decline in the previous month.Meanwhile, Taiwan's consumer confidence index edged up to 62.47 in April, rising 0.17 points from March.The uptick was driven by improvements in four sub-indicators, with sentiment on employment opportunities posting the largest monthly gain.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence was also due in the Philippines.TUESDAY, April 28Markets will turn their attention to an interest rate decision scheduled in Japan.The upcoming decision could be a complicated one for the Bank of Japan as it grapples with intensifying inflation domestically and the uncertainty surrounding the Middle East, ING said in a preview.While markets broadly expect the central bank to maintain rates at 0.75%, ING said it continues to believe there's a chance the Bank of Japan may hike rates.Japanese unemployment data is also due the same day, with observers expecting the jobless rate to hover around the 2.6% mark, unchanged from the prior month, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Hong Kong will disclose trade stats for March. According to Trading Economics, the city state's trade deficit could narrow to HK$43 billion from the HK$64.2 billion recorded in February.Macao will similarly release balance of trade figures. The city state's trade deficit could narrow to 9.4 billion pataca in March from 9.9 billion pataca a month prior, Trading Economics forecasted.India's industrial production data for March will also be in the news. A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated analysts expect India's industrial production growth to slow to a rate of 4.2% from 5.2% in February.India's manufacturing weakened in March as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East, unstable market conditions, and inflationary pressures impacted output, S&P Global said previously. However, conditions appeared to have improved in April, according to the firm's most recent flash purchasing managers' index release.South Korea's business confidence report for April will be due the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 29Thailand's central bank will meet for its interest rate decision.The Bank of Thailand is seen to hold rates steady at 1% amid softening growth and inflationary pressure due to the conflict in the Middle East, the Wall Street Journal reported.Thailand's March Industrial production data is also expected on the same day.Australia's latest inflation print will be in the news, providing markets with an overview of pricing pressure ahead of the Reserve Bank of Australia's May board meeting.Westpac said it expects to see a 4.2% yearly gain in headline inflation for the March quarter.The quarterly data is likely to affirm for the Reserve Bank of Australia that the underlying inflation pressures are evident in the economy before the escalation of the Middle East conflict in late February, ANZ said in a preview.In Singapore, March import and export prices will be expected, as well as producer price inflation data.THURSDAY, April 30China's manufacturing and services sectors will be in focus as the National Bureau of Statistics releases its monthly purchasing managers' index covering manufacturing, non-manufacturing, and general PMI for April.The release will be accompanied by a private reading on China's manufacturing sector from S&P Global.Economists at ING said they expect official data to show activity dipped back into contractionary territory following the expansion witnessed in March.ING forecasts manufacturing PMI falling to 49.9 and the non-manufacturing PMI dipping to 49.8, and said it expects to see pricing pressure continuing to build in the PMI sub-indices.Taiwan will release its first-quarter advance gross domestic product growth rate, with markets looking for signs of whether the island state's economy can continue posting stellar growth due to its global positioning in high-precision semiconductor production.Researchers at ANZ expect Taiwan's first-quarter GDP growth rate to come in at 11.8%, slowing from the 12.7% rise witnessed in the prior quarter, the Wall Street Journal reported.In Australia, the first-quarter import and export prices data is expected. CommBank said it expects export prices to rise 1.2% while import prices to decline 0.6%, both on a quarter-on-quarter basis.Meanwhile, a confidence report due in New Zealand is likely to show a further deterioration in business sentiment due to the ongoing Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview.Further trade data is expected in the Philippines, which could see its trade deficit widen to $4.1 billion in March from $3.68 billion in April, according to Trading Economics.Both South Korea and Japan will release industrial production and retail sales data for March.ING said it expects Japan's industrial production to "rebound quite firmly" during the month. The firm expects industrial output to rise 2.2% year on year from the 0.4% rise witnessed in February.Japan will additionally release a consumer confidence report for April, while a similar release covering business confidence will be due in Singapore.Singapore's first-quarter preliminary unemployment rate will also be released on Thursday.Thailand's February retail sales stats will be due.FRIDAY, May 1Japan's closely watched Tokyo core consumer price index for April will capture headlines, offering markets an early indicator of the overall inflation rate in the country."The Tokyo CPI is expected to rise faster in April, reflecting recent energy price hikes, a weak JPY, solid wage growth, and bi-annual price adjustments," ING said in a preview.South Korea announces April trade data.The country's trade surplus could drop marginally to $26 billion from $26.2 billion a month prior, even as exports show a 50% year on year growth due to robust chip shipments, ING said.A consumer confidence report due in New Zealand could show sentiment weakening further in April and over the coming months amid the Middle East conflict, CommBank said in a preview."As the conflict progresses, overall consumer confidence is expected to continue falling," CommBank said.Neighboring Australia will release first-quarter produce price data.On the activity front, S&P Global releases its PMI reports covering manufacturing activity in Australia and Japan.

India's Private-Sector Growth Accelerates in April: PMI Report

The expansion of India's private sector accelerated in April, led by manufacturers, reported S&P Global on Thursday.India's flash seasonally adjusted composite purchasing manager index (PMI) for output, a combination of the nation's factory and service sectors, logged at 58.3 in April, up from 57.0 in March, and striking further above the 50-mark that separates growth from contraction, reported S&P Global, citing its monthly survey.India's flash manufacturing PMI for output rose to 59.1 in April, up from 55.7 in March, while the nation's services PMI registered at 57.9 in April, up from 57.5 in the previous month, added S&P Global."Aggregate activity and new orders in India's private sector expanded at quicker rates at the start of this fiscal year, after growth receded in March due to the Middle East war," advised S&P Global.India private-sector managers reported indicated that business activitywas supported by capacity expansion, better demand conditions, rising and historically strong new orders, as well as tech investment, said S&P Global.Facing rising demand, India's enterprises again added to payrolls."Employment across India's private sector increased further, with the rate of job creation reaching a ten-month high in April," said S&P Global.However, India's private-sector did face rising costs in April.Business managers "particularly signaled greater outlays on chemicals, food, jute, leather, metals, rubber and transportation. There were also mentions of gas shortages pushing up its price," said S&P Global.Despite Persian Gulf turmoil and inflation in costs of operation, India's business managers were optimistic in April, and expect an increase in output in the coming 12 months.Indian companies expect "marketing efforts should support demand for their goods and services, with projects pending approval and risingclient inquiries also boosting optimism," advised S&P Global.The flash India PMI for April was compiled by S&P Global from surveys sent responses to 400 manufacturers and 400 service providers from April 8 through April 20.

PNB Housing Finance Q4 Profit Rises 19% on Year

Boosted by a growing loan portfolio of better-performing assets, India's PNB Housing Finance reported a solid rise in fourth-quarter profits on year, the lender reported Wednesday.In the fourth period, PNB Housing Finance's loan portfolio grew by 15.3% on year to 87,373 crore, while net profits after tax grew by 19.2% to 656 crore, as a larger pool of assets, but a smaller amount of sour loans, boosted the home-loan giant's bottom line."We delivered a healthy expansion in our retail loan portfolio along withsustaining robust asset quality and profitability," said Ajai Shukla, CEO and managing director, in a prepared statement. "The continued focus on disciplined collections and portfolio management resulted in GNPA (gross non-performing assets) improving to sub-1% levels."The New Delhi-based PNB Housing Finance is a subsidiary of Punjab National Bank. The specialized lender primarily provides housing loans, often to first-time buyers, but also lends on other property-types, and holds a license to accept public deposits.In the fourth quarter, PNB Housing's deposits grew to 18,055 crore, up a relatively modest 2.3% on year. The housing lender also boosted its borrowing from institutional lenders to 43,543 crore in the fourth period, up 22.5% on year.PNB Housing's total expenses in the fourth quarter fell to 1,317 crore, off marginally from 1,325 crore in the year ago period, largely due to fewer write-offs or expenses associated with non-performing loans.For the full fiscal year 2026, PNB Housing reported net profit of 2291 crore, up 18% on year.PNB Housing shares traded up 8.1% following the lender's earnings release.

ICICI Bank Reports Higher Profits in Fiscal Q4

ICICI Bank's (NSE:ICICIBANK, BOM:532174) fiscal fourth quarter profits after tax grew by 8.5% on-year to $1.4 billion, while total advances, or loans, grew 15.8% on-year in the same period, the financial house reported on Saturday.Bank ICICI reported that it extended loans heavily to the business side of its loan portfolio in the fiscal fourth period and year, ended March 31.While the bank's retail loan portfolio grew by 9.5% on-year in the fourth period, the ICICI business-loan portfolio grew by 24.4%on-year, reported ICICI.Meanwhile, total ICICI Bank deposits increased by 11.4% on-year to $189.2 billion, at the end of the fiscal fourth quarter.The bank operation is well-capitalized, said ICICI.The bank's total capital adequacy ratio at the end of the fourth period was 17.18% and the common equity tier 1 (CET1) ratiowas 16.35%, which was above the regulatory requirements of 11.70% and 8.20% respectively, advised ICICI.Based on the financial results, the ICICI board recommended a dividend equivalent to $ 0.25 per ADS (American Depositary Share)..Established in 1955, ICICI Bank is part of the ICICI Group. It was established by the World Bank, the Government of India, and industry representatives to foster industrial development.ICICI is one of India's largest financial houses, and is regarded as one of three domestic "systemically important banks" by the central bank Reserve Bank of India (RBI). The other two such banks are HDFC Bank (NSE:HDFCBANK, BOM:500180, HDB) and the State Bank of India (NSE:SBIN, BOM:500112).ICICI shares on Monday closed up 0.9%.

India Wholesale Prices Rise in March on Fuel Costs

Jarred by fuel bills, India's wholesale price index (WPI) rose 3.88% on year in March, accelerating from a 2.13% on-year rise in February, reported the Ministry of Commerce and Industry (MCI) on Wednesday.India's WPI rose 1.64% in March from February, added the MCI.Global petroleum and gas prices surged following the effective closure to shipping of the Strait of Hormuz in early March, through which about 20% of world fossil fuels supplies are transited.With supplies scarce, India's crude petroleum WPI rose 49.10% in March from February and 51.57% on year, according to the MCI.The WPI is distinct from the consumer price index (CPI), that measures prices in retail locations, faced by ordinary shoppers. The WPI provides insight into cost pressures within the supply chain and production sectors, and is considered one precursor to subsequent changes in the CPI.In March, India's Wholesale Food Index rose 1.85% on year, while the manufactured products WPI rose 3.39% on year, reported the MCI.No doubt, the price pressures stemming from Persian Gulf turmoils will be watched by the Reserve Bank of India (RBI), the nation's central bank.The RBI has an annual target-rate of inflation band of 4%, plus or minus 2%, on the nation's CPI.India's CPI in March rose 3.40% on year, accelerating from a 3.21% on-year gain in February, the Ministry of Statistics reported on Monday.Last week, the Reserve Bank of India's (RBI) decided to keep its key policy interest rate unchanged at 5.25%, citing relatively strong economic growth but geopolitical tensions, and emergent inflationary pressures.

India's Inflation Accelerates to 3.4% in March

Asian Development Bank Tempers APAC GDP Forecasts for 2026

The Middle East outlook and consequent higher oil prices will temper the economic expansion of developing countries in the Asia Pacific in 2026, reported the Asian Development Bank (ADB) late Friday.Economic growth in developing Asia is expected to slow to 5.1% in both 2026 and 2027, down from the previous 5.4% estimate, weighed down by the Persian Gulf conflict and continuing trade uncertainty, said the ADB.The Asian Development Bank (ADB) makes economic projections for developing nations in Asia, focusing on gross domestic product (GDP) growth and inflation outlooks. The ADB forecasts cover 46 nations, including China and India, and all 10 ASEAN members."Higher energy prices will raise production costs and consumer prices, while export growth will normalize following last year's front-loading ahead of US tariff increases," said the ADB. "Solid domestic demand---particularly in South Asia and developing Southeast Asia---will continue to anchor growth."Regional inflation is projected to rise to 3.6% in 2026 and 3.4% in 2027, up from 3% last year, added the ADB.GDP growth in China is projected to decline to 4.6% in 2026 and 4.5% in 2027, down from 5% in 2025, "with continued property market weakness and slower export expansion expected to weigh on activity," said the ADB."In India, growth is forecast to ease to 6.9% this year from 7.6% last year, before rising to 7.3% next year, underpinned by resilient domestic consumption," added the ADB, a Manila-based regional bank that lends on infrastructure and other projects.

Asia Week Ahead: GDP Growth; Trade Data; and Inflation Prints

For the week ahead in Asia, markets will be focused on a slate of monthly data that will help investors assess how the Middle East conflict is feeding into economic conditions across the region.The week opens Monday with New Zealand's services sector survey and India's March inflation print, as well as a scheduled speech by the Bank of Japan's governor that could offer clues on the timing of a possible rate hike.Attention then shifts Tuesday to China's trade figures and a monetary policy decision in Singapore, alongside business and consumer confidence readings from Australia and industrial production data from Japan.Midweek brings trade and labor market data from India and South Korea, while Thursday is headlined by China's first-quarter GDP report and a broad batch of activity indicators.Friday rounds off the week with Malaysia's preliminary first-quarter GDP and inflation data, as well as Singapore's March trade numbers, including non-oil exports.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, April 13The week kicked off with a report indicating New Zealand's services sector shrank for the third consecutive month as the conflict in the Middle East impacted consumer confidence.The BusinessNZ Performance of Services Index for March came in at 46.0, down 1.6 points from February and 6.6 points lower than the long-term average of 52.8."So poor was the PSI reading that our combined PMI/PSI indicator is suggesting the economy could soon be contracting," said Stephen Toplis, BNZ's head of research.Outside of New Zealand, markets will be on the look out for India's March inflation print.A consensus compiled by Trading Economics indicated that the pace of price increase may have quickened during the month to around 3.5% year on year from the 3.2% recorded in February.The March print will give observers the first real look on how the Indian economy is faring after war broke out in the Middle East.While overall inflation is expected to rise, core inflation--which excludes the impact of some items--is likely to clock in at below 4%, giving the Reserve Bank of India room to shy away from a hawkish stance near term, economists at DBS said, the Wall Street Journal reported.Meanwhile, markets will also be closely following a scheduled speech by Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda on the possible timing of a rate hike. The central bank is reportedly considering a rate hike this month to counter price pressures from the Iran war.Elsewhere, Indonesia reported a 6.5% annual rise in retail sales during February, quickening from the 5.7% growth witnessed a month prior.TUESDAY, April 14China's trade figures will capture headlines Tuesday.The world's second-largest economy could report a trade surplus of $112 billion in March, higher than the $91 billion captured in February, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Despite the rising surplus, economists at ING said they expect March export growth to moderate from the figures seen in the first two months of the year.A monetary policy decision and an advance estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter is expected in Singapore.Unlike other economies, Singapore tweaks its currency exchange rate rather than its domestic interest rates to control inflation. While the Monetary Authority of Singapore has not adjusted its policy since April 2025, it is now expected to tighten the valves in response to the Middle East conflict, according to a survey of economists compiled by Bloomberg, CNA Digital reported.Meanwhile, Singapore's economy likely slowed during the first three months of the year due to a pullback in manufacturing activity, the WSJ reported, citing Barclays economists.The city-state's economy expanded 6.9% year-on-year in the final quarter of 2025 and by 5% during the entirety of the year.In January, the city-state had upgraded its 2026 forecast to a range of 2% to 4%, with growth outlook raised to 3%. However, Deputy Prime Minister Gan Kim Yong said in March the government will reassess its GDP forecast following the U.S.-Israeli attack on Iran.A pair of reports covering business and consumer confidence in Australia are expected.Consumer confidence was near the bottom of its 18-month range in March, and the April survey was shaping up for a bigger drop as consumers reckoned with the implications of the conflict in the Middle East, the National Australia Bank said in a preview.Meanwhile, the March business confidence report should capture the flow through impacts from the energy crisis and higher borrowing costs in Australia, Westpac said."Widespread supply disruptions and soaring energy costs are likely to be reflected in higher business input and output costs," the firm said in a note.Japan's industrial production stats will also be in focus on Tuesday, while India will release wholesale price inflation data the same day.WEDNESDAY, April 15A slew of macro data from India and South Korea will be in the news Wednesday.India will report its trade figures for March which could show a widening of the trade deficit to $32.75 billion from $27.1 billion in the month prior, according to a consensus compiled by Trading Economics.Labor data, due the same day, could show unemployment climbed to 5.1% from 4.9% in February, according to another Trading Economics consensus estimate.South Korea will similarly report March labor data and export and import prices.Unemployment in South Korea has been on a downward trajectory since December when it stood at 3.3%. The most recent reading was of 2.9%.Japan's machinery orders stats are also scheduled for release Wednesday.THURSDAY, April 16Markets will turn their attention to a flurry of data coming in from China, including the closely watched GDP growth rate for the first quarter of the year.Analysts place China's Q1 GDP growth rate at 4.9% year on year, rising from the 4.5% recorded in the closing months of 2025, the WSJ reported. Economists at DBS attributed the expected rise in growth to a jump in overseas demand for Chinese goods, the WSJ added.The GDP release will be accompanied by China's house price index, offering an insight into new home prices across 70 cities that markets use as a benchmark. New prices are expected to stay in negative territory, though any moderation would be viewed positively, economists at ING said.Additional releases will include China's industrial production data, retail sales figures, and unemployment stats."Other than industrial production, which we expect to grow around 5.5% YoY, economic activity data is likely to remain rather soft in March," ING said in a preview.Labor data from Australia is also expected Thursday.The National Australia Bank expects the jobless rate to stay at 4.3%, with employment rising by 25,000. "While the survey period captures the escalation in the Middle East conflict, it is likely too early to see a response to this reflected in the data," NAB said in a note.The Reuters Tankan Index for April, a key gauge of Japanese business confidence, will be due the same day.FRIDAY, April 17The week rounds off with Malaysia's preliminary GDP growth rate figures for the first quarter of the year.Economists at ANZ expect first-quarter growth to ease to 5.3% from the 6.3% recorded in the final quarter of 2025, the WSJ reported. Despite stronger agriculture output, the Malaysian economy saw industrial and retail activity moderate during the opening months of 2026, the report said, citing ANZ.Malaysia's inflation data is also expected Friday, with Trading Economics forecasting the pace of price increase to quicken to 1.8% year on year from the 1.4% recorded in February.Singapore reports March trade data, including non-oil exports, the same day.

Trump Declares Immediate U.S. Navy Blockade of Hormuz After Iran Talks Fail

U.S. President Donald Trump warned on social media that the U.S. Navy would immediately begin blockading all ships attempting to enter or leave the Strait of Hormuz after a failed talk with Tehran.Trump said in a Truth Social post on Sunday that while the goal is eventually to reach an "all being allowed to go in, all being allowed to go out" arrangement, Iran has prevented this by citing vague concerns about undisclosed mines."Iran has not allowed that to happen by merely saying, 'There may be a mine out there somewhere,' that nobody knows about but them," Trump wrote.Trump further directed the Navy to intercept any vessel in international waters that has paid a toll to Iran while also ordering the destruction of mines allegedly laid by Iran in the strait and warning that any Iranian attack on U.S. or peaceful vessels would result in them being "BLOWN TO HELL."Meanwhile, Reuters News, citing the U.S. Central Command, reported that the blockade of all maritime traffic to and from Iranian ports is set to begin at 10 a.m. ET on Monday.The command clarified that freedom of navigation would remain unaffected for ships transiting the strait to non-Iranian ports, with formal notices to be issued to commercial mariners beforehand, the newswire said.