International
Asia Week Ahead: Policy Rates; Inflation Prints; and Labor Data
The macro calendar in Asia for the week of June 22 will be relatively light, though investors will still have a mix of inflation prints, activity indicators and policy decisions to track.The week gets off to a quiet start on Monday with China's benchmark lending rates.Activity picks up Tuesday with inflation data from Hong Kong and Singapore, alongside preliminary manufacturing and services readings from several major economies.Wednesday brings Thailand's monetary policy decision, while Thursday will shift the focus to Australia's labor market data.Friday rounds out the trading week with Tokyo inflation data, as well as Singapore's trade and industrial production figures.China's industrial profits data will follow on Saturday, with markets watching for signs of continued growth in corporate earnings.Here's what to watch in the week ahead.MONDAY, June 22The week kicked off with the release of China's closely-watched lending rates.As expected, the People's Bank of China kept its benchmark rate steady at its monthly fixing, with the one-year and five-year loan prime rate (LPR) maintained at 3% and 3.50%, respectively.Macao's monthly inflation print will be in the news later in the day.TUESDAY, June 23The second day of the week brings inflation data from Hong Kong and Singapore, along with preliminary readings on manufacturing and services activity across several economies.Singapore's inflation is expected to rise to 2.1% year on year in May from 1.8% in April, according to ING. The bank said the increase would mainly reflect elevated food prices and the delayed pass-through of earlier fuel price gains.Inflation in Hong Kong is similarly expected to accelerate to 2.1% in May from 1.7% in April, Trading Economics forecasted.Taiwan will report its monthly export orders and unemployment rate. Economists at ING said they expect May export orders to rise to 50.7% year on year amid the ongoing tech boom.Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to edge up to 3.4% in May from 3.34% in April, according to a Trading Economics forecast.On the activity front, S&P Global releases flash purchasing managers' index reports covering manufacturing, services, and composite activity in India, Japan, and Australia.Thailand reports its trade figures for May.According to Trading Economics, the country's trade deficit could narrow to $5 billion from a $10.02 billion deficit in the prior month period.South Korea's monthly consumer confidence report will also be among the highlights of the day.WEDNESDAY, June 24Thailand's central bank will convene for its interest rate decision, with markets expecting no change to the current benchmark of 1%, according to a Trading Economics forecast.Markets will also be closely watching Australia's monthly inflation print after the country's central bank decided to leave the cash rate target unchanged at its most recent meeting to assess the impact of previous rises and the oil supply disruption.Australia's consumer price index (CPI) is expected to fall 0.3% from the previous month, a result that would still see the annual pace of inflation rise to 4.4%, Westpac said.Transport is expected to be the primary drag due to lower fuel prices, alongside declines in clothing and footwear, somewhat offset by modest gains in food and housing, according to the bank.Elsewhere, Taiwan will report industrial production and retail sales data for May.As with export orders, industrial production is expected to benefit from the ongoing tech boom and could record a growth of 14.2% year on year, ING said.THURSDAY, June 25Thursday will be relatively light on macro readouts, with Australia's monthly labor data among the handful of releases of note.Westpac said it expects Australia's May labour force data to show a bounce-back after April's data surprised materially to the downside, possibly due to extra holiday-related weakness tied to the survey's Easter timing.The bank forecast a bounce-back in employment of 45,000 for May, with the participation rate edging back up to 66.8%, and the unemployment rate slipping to 4.4% from 4.5%.Hong Kong's May trade figures will also feature Thursday.The city is expected to report a trade deficit of HK$32.5 billion for the month, widening from a deficit of HK$29.5 billion in April, Trading Economics forecasted.In South Korea, the business confidence survey for June will be expected. The readout should show an improvement in business sentiment amid easing geopolitical tensions and strong performance in the tech sector, ING said.FRIDAY, June 26Japan's closely watched Tokyo core consumer price index for June will capture headlines, offering markets an early indicator of the overall inflation rate in the country.Economists at ING expect headline inflation to rise modestly to 1.7% year on year from 1.4% in the prior month and below the government's 2% target."JPY weakness and second-round effects from higher energy prices should add to inflationary pressures on both goods and services prices," ING said.Trade data from Singapore and Macao will also feature Friday, with Singapore additionally reporting industrial production data.Lastly, the Philippines will release its business confidence report for May.SATURDAY, June 27The week rounds off with the release of China's industrial profits data.After profits at major industrial enterprises rose 18% year on year in the first four months of 2026, markets will be watching the latest data for signs of continued growth.
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