Oil & Energy
EMEA Oil Update: Crude Retreats as Markets Assess Impact of US-Iran Strikes
EMEA crude futures slipped in after-hours trading on Thursday as markets assessed the impact of renewed US-Iran strikes, with traders weighing the risk of further supply disruptions against signs that physical flows have remained resilient.Brent crude futures dropped by 2.1% to $76.36 per barrel, while Murban crude futures retreated by 3.1% to $71.27/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said that the latest Middle East headlines have kept volatility alive, but crude itself is struggling to hold a sustained bid as flows through the Strait of Hormuz remain partially recovered and the market weighs the impact of the recent OPEC+ output hike."Refined products are still flashing tighter conditions, with diesel and gasoline markets carrying more strain than the underlying crude contract as refinery capacity, low product inventories, and Russian fuel disruptions keep margins elevated," Gelber analysts said in a Thursday note.On Wednesday, the US attacked Iran for a second day, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by striking US military infrastructure in the Middle East, raising fears of a return to war after little progress in efforts to secure a diplomatic outcome.US Central Command said that about 90 targets were hit overnight, after 80 on Tuesday, "to further degrade" Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz."The latest strikes follow the successful execution of offensive strikes in Iran the night before," Centcom said in a statement on X.Iran responded by targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar. Jordan also intercepted eight Iran-launched missiles. Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the US can no longer pursue policies of bullying and reneging on its commitments without facing consequences."... Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you'll get hit," Ghalibaf said in a post on X, reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will only open with "Iranian arrangements."The latest commercial vessel-tracking data showed a drop-off in Hormuz transits, as renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US retaliatory strikes, and a decline in tanker positioning signal that the strategic waterway remains vulnerable.Kpler said that recent strong export volumes through the waterway have largely reflected the movement of cargoes delayed during the period of disruption rather than a broad-based recovery in regular shipping activity.The UK Maritime Trade Operations center said in an advisory issued Thursday that commercial traffic via the Strait continued at reduced levels, with vessels transiting via both the southern Omani corridor and the northern Iranian-controlled route.On the supply front, the Energy Information Administration said global crude prices are projected to face renewed downward pressure as crude production rebounds and trade flows via the strategic waterway recover.Earlier this week, seven OPEC+ countries, led by Saudi Arabia and Russia, agreed to increase quotas by 188,000 barrels per day, on top of similar increases for June and July, citing members' commitment to support global crude market stability.