The return of hostilities in the Strait of Hormuz has reignited concerns over whether the US will reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, while renewed attacks on commercial shipping threaten to further undermine confidence in the waterway's reopening, Kpler analyst Michelle Brouhard said in a Thursday note.
A US-Iran Memorandum of Understanding signed 20 days ago temporarily addressed the immediate market concern by lifting the US naval blockade, reopening the Strait and allowing stranded cargoes to move. However, the agreement did not resolve the broader political dispute over the waterway.
Iran continued to view the Strait as a strategic pressure point, while Washington maintained its position that commercial vessels must have unrestricted freedom of navigation. The MoU effectively paused the conflict rather than solving it.
Following the reopening, oil flows recovered quickly. More than 70 million barrels of crude reportedly cleared the Strait as shipowners moved delayed cargoes out of the Gulf, Middle East exports rebounded and crude prices fell from nearly $100 per barrel toward $70/bbl.
The larger challenge was rebuilding confidence among shipowners, charterers and insurers needed to bring vessels back into the region. That effort was disrupted after Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps forces attacked commercial vessels transiting the Strait while directing ships to follow Iran-designated routes.
US Central Command called the attacks a violation of the ceasefire and responded with strikes on Iranian targets. Washington also revoked temporary oil-export waivers issued under the MoU.
Brouhard said the waiver itself had a limited impact on physical oil flows. Iran had already been exporting near decade-high volumes despite sanctions, with China remaining its primary buyer. Without enforcement measures that restrict actual shipping, Iranian exports are likely to continue through existing channels.
The key market question is whether Washington will restore the naval blockade. Unlike the export waiver, the blockade directly affected the movement of oil through the Strait. A renewed blockade could constrain Iranian exports again, while its absence would likely allow shipments to continue.
The longer-term concern is the damage to confidence in shipping. Each attack after a ceasefire casts doubt on whether future reopenings will last. The Strait does not need to be formally closed to disrupt markets as uncertainty alone can keep freight rates, insurance costs and risk premiums elevated.