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RBC Outlines OR Royalties' Stance On Sector Consolidation, Buybacks

RBC Capital Markets said Friday that it hosted investor meetings with OR Royalties (OR.TO) chief executive Jason Attew and Grant Moenting, the company's vice president of capital markets.RBC said it reviewed key questions asked by investors and a summary of management's responses.When asked why OR was less active in 2025, the company said it would remain disciplined in its capital allocation.RBC noted that management outlined low success in 2025 due to elevated valuations and returns below target thresholds, increased competition and capital availability, and 25%of deals were unsecured, which is a non-starter for OR.As for OR's outlook for return of capital, management expressed willingness to repurchase shares to drive per share growth rather than pursue dilutive acquisitions.The company said it expects to maintain an opportunistic buyback throughout 2026, contingent on investment opportunities and internal valuation.OR anticipates royalty sector consolidation to continue, driven by a significant increase of new entrants to an already fragmented industry, RBC said.Meanwhile, OR's management believes that the opportunity at the Malartic operation in Quebec is largely overlooked. The company owns a 5% net smelter royalty in the mine owned by Agnico Eagle Mines (AEM.TO).Malartic is currently undergoing a transition from low grade open-pit mining to high gradeunderground mining, RBC said.RBC maintained OR's outperform rating and US$56 price target. The company traded at US$39.65 per share at last look on the New York Stock Exchange.Price: $54.70, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.20%

$AEM.TO$OR.TO

Physical Oil Prices Refuse to Follow Futures Down as Supply Reality Defies Sentiment

The two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran may have capped the upside risk for speculators, but for the refiners scrambling for available barrels, the crisis is far from over, market experts have said.June Brent futures have retreated below $100 per barrel following the ceasefire announcement. Yet, on water, the global benchmark for immediate delivery, Dated Brent, remains stubbornly pinned above $120.This $20-plus premium reveals a desperate global scramble for wet barrels that financial models failed to predict. "The issue was never production; it's deliverability," said David Jorbenaze, commodities analyst at ICIS.Jorbenaze added that because refining and petrochemical units take three to six months to safely ramp up, the global downstream system will remain tight long after crude begins to flow.Despite the diplomatic breakthrough, shipowners remain paralyzed by war-risk insurance premiums, disrupted tanker rotations, and the lingering threat of Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz.Experts warned that the market cannot simply flick a switch to restore supply.Robert Rennie, Head of Commodity and Carbon Research, said that while rhetoric has softened, the physical system remains "severely impaired," leading to a massive dislocation where North Sea grades like Forties have traded as high as $147.Even with the ceasefire holding, ANZ analysts expect only a partial recovery of 2-3 million barrels per day in the near term, with a credible risk that 1-2 mb/d of capacity may be permanently lost due to infrastructure damage.Michael Connolly, head of refining and base oils analytics at ICIS noted that while de-escalation has eased sentiment, underlying fundamentals have not reset. "Markets normalise when barrels move - not when announcements are made," he added.The current price discrepancy highlights a fundamental failure in the forward curve. Matt Marshall, president at Aegis Hedging, suggested that financial models often underestimate the "physical squeeze" created by acute buying interest.For refiners needing to fill a vacuum in their immediate schedule, the crisis is far from over, Marshall noted.

US Markets17d ago

March Consumer Inflation Logs Fastest Pace Since 2022 Amid Higher Energy Prices

US consumer inflation accelerated to its highest monthly reading in nearly four years in March as the Middle East conflict sent energy prices sharply higher.The consumer price index advanced 0.9% last month, its strongest pace of growth since June 2022, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Friday. The latest print met a Bloomberg-polled consensus view. Prices rose 0.3% in February.Annually, inflation grew to 3.3% from February's 2.4% rise, falling short of Wall Street's 3.4% projection."The fallout of the US/Israel-Iran war was evident in the March consumer price index," Oxford Economics Lead US Economist Bernard Yaros said in remarks emailed to.Earlier in the week, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire. The war, which began at the end of February, spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz, driving energy prices sharply higher.Energy price growth jumped about 11% sequentially in March, led by a 21% surge in gasoline, accounting for nearly three quarters of the headline increase, official data showed. Fuel oil prices rallied 31%.The energy index climbed around 13% year-on-year.Yaros cautioned that the next CPI print will be "uncomfortably strong" as pump prices continue to rise."A statistical quirk associated with the government shutdown will unwind, adding another unusual source of upward pressure to the April CPI," Yaros said. "Also, the energy price shock will increasingly bleed into food and other core prices."Monthly food prices were flat, while the measure advanced 2.7% annually, official data showed.Core inflation, which excludes the volatile food and energy components, accelerated to 2.6% annually in March from February's 2.5%, trailing the market's view for a 2.7% increase. The metric held steady at 0.2% sequentially, while the Street was looking for growth to speed up to 0.3%."While core prices came in a bit softer than expected, it feels a bit backward looking as the surge in energy costs are likely to pressure prices for other goods and services higher in the months ahead," TD Economics Senior Economist Thomas Feltmate said in a note. "This will be happening alongside the continued pass-through of higher tariff costs, suggesting inflation's near-term direction of travel is likely to be higher."On Thursday, government data showed that US inflation, as measured by personal consumption expenditure, accelerated sequentially in February, although the Federal Reserve's preferred core inflation metric held steady."The (Fed) will look past the energy supply shock as a onetime boost to inflation and will watch for any weakening in the job market," Yaros said Friday. "As long as long-run inflation expectations remain well anchored, we still think the Fed will step in later this year and cut interest rates twice to shore up the labor market in the face of this energy supply shock."Markets widely expect the central bank to keep its benchmark lending rate unchanged later this month, according to the CME FedWatch tool.

Commodities17d ago

Middle East Conflict Derails Solar Supply Chains, Revives Cost Pressures, Wood Mackenzie Says

The Middle East conflict is disrupting solar project execution and delaying the development of alternative manufacturing hubs, tightening global supply chains, and reintroducing cost pressures, Wood Mackenzie strategists said in a note on Friday.Yana Hryshko, senior research analyst and Head of Global Solar Supply Chain at Wood Mackenzie, said that the near-term impact is being felt across projects under construction in the region, where about 110 gigawatts of solar capacity is under execution or advanced stages of development.Developers and engineering, procurement, and construction contractors are delaying shipments, adjusting delivery schedules, and reassessing procurement timelines as uncertainty grows around logistics and transport routes.Rising risks along key maritime corridors have driven up freight rates and insurance costs, pushing regional project capital expenditure higher by an estimated 1-3%, while commissioning timelines in some cases are being delayed by several months.Hryshko said the disruption is spilling into global markets. Shipping costs from China to Europe have climbed since the onset of the conflict, rising by about 18% on routes to Rotterdam and about 10% to Southern Europe.Developers are absorbing these increases, reversing expectations of continued cost declines across the solar sector.Though the short-term effects are significant, Wood Mackenzie analysts say the longer-term implications could be more profound.The Middle East had been emerging as a potential solar manufacturing hub, supported by low-cost energy, favorable industrial policies, and proximity to key markets.Wood Mackenzie announced that manufacturing capacity across modules, cells, and upstream segments exceeded 30 GW, with ambitions to supply both domestic and export demand.However, the ongoing conflict is delaying project timelines, deferring investment decisions, and shifting focus toward operational resilience.The slowdown extends beyond module assembly to critical supporting components such as solar glass, aluminum frames, and mounting structures, which are essential for building competitive local supply chains.Wood Mackenzie projected that global supply chain diversification is likely to stall as a result. Instead of accelerating the development of alternative manufacturing bases, the disruption is reinforcing reliance on established supply chains, particularly in China, where scale and cost advantages remain unmatched.Similarly, vulnerabilities in upstream supply are becoming more apparent in the US. Though US module assembly capacity is projected to reach 50-60 GW by 2026, domestic solar cell production remains limited, leaving manufacturers dependent on imports.Wood Mackenzie said a significant portion of this supply comes from regions now exposed to elevated geopolitical risk, including Oman and Ethiopia.The consultancy projected that the US could lose 20-25% of its external cell supply if disruptions materialize, potentially driving cell prices higher by $0.2 to $ 0.4 per watt and affecting project economics and expansion plans.

Financial News · Live Terminal

RBC Outlines OR Royalties' Stance On Sector Consolidation, Buybacks

Physical Oil Prices Refuse to Follow Futures Down as Supply Reality Defies Sentiment

RBC Outlines OR Royalties' Stance On Sector Consolidation, Buybacks

Physical Oil Prices Refuse to Follow Futures Down as Supply Reality Defies Sentiment

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Middle East Conflict Derails Solar Supply Chains, Revives Cost Pressures, Wood Mackenzie Says

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