TPH Raises Long-Term US Gas Price Outlook, Sees LNG Export Cuts by 2030
A tightening in US natural gas inventories could emerge by 2028 as Gulf Coast supply-demand imbalances widen, TPH Energy Research analyst Matt Portillo said in a note on Monday.The firm raised its mid-cycle US gas price forecast to $4.50 per million British thermal units from $4/MMBtu, with that level expected by 2029.Portillo said the Gulf Coast imbalance would eventually force the arbitrage gap with global markets, estimated at about $1.50/MMBtu, to close.TPH also expects Europe's Dutch TTF gas price to fall toward $6/MMBtu and said the global gas market could remain structurally oversupplied for much of the next decade.On oil, TPH raised its 2027 forecast for West Texas Intermediate crude to $75-$80 per barrel but still expects softer prices of $65-$70/bbl in H2 2028 and through 2029.The firm said maturing US shale production should increase the need for long-cycle projects, supporting its longer-term mid-cycle oil price outlook of $80/bbl from 2030 onward.
