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European Council Calls for Swift Progress to Lasting US-Iran Peace, Protect Civilians, Restore Energy Normalcy

The European Council, a body which comprises heads of state of each EU member country, said it welcomes the two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran, according to a statement on Wednesday.Thanking Pakistan for facilitating the deal, it said the foes must now negotiate "a swift and lasting end" to the war through diplomatic means.It encouraged "quick progress" in order to protect Iran's civilian population, restore security to the region and to "avert a severe global energy crisis".The statement concluded by calling on all sides to implement the ceasefire, including in Iran and said that European governments would contribute "to ensuring freedom of navigation in the Strait of Hormuz."Less than two days old, the ceasefire agreement has had a shaky start with vessels showing reluctance to exit the Strait of Hormuz amid a lack of trust in the Iranian authorities while Iran says Israeli attacks on Lebanon are "a grave violation" of the ceasefire deal.While gas and oil futures contracts plunged upon the announcement of a ceasefire, prices were already rising again on Thursday, as a hoped-for normalization of energy flows has so far failed to materialize.

Oil & Energy75d ago

Strait of Hormuz Flow to Remain Constrained for Weeks Despite Ceasefire, Says Sparta

Energy markets face prolonged volatility as a fragile ceasefire fails to restore traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, Sparta Commodities' head of research Neil Crosby said in a note on Thursday.According to Crosby, logistical hurdles, sea mine threats, and fresh attacks on Saudi infrastructure suggest global supply chains will remain severely constrained for at least another month.Sparta noted that even under peaceful conditions, clearing these mines is a long-term endeavor, suggesting that oil flows through the world's most critical chokepoint will remain significantly reduced for at least four weeks.The market outlook is further complicated by unconfirmed reports of fires near Saudi Arabia's Abqaiq processing facility and confirmed strikes on the East-West pipeline system, it added.These attacks directly threaten the primary rerouting alternative, which currently handles approximately 4 million barrels per day via Yanbu.Additionally, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps is sharing instructions and maps for ships to avoid mines, even though it is still unclear if they have laid such explosives in the waterway or not.With leverage for a forced reopening limited, analysts suggest a "toll booth" system managed by Iran may become the only short-term path to restoring flow, though this presents significant legal and sanctions hurdles for vessel owners, Crosby noted.Meanwhile, in Europe, the supply crunch is triggering early signs of oil nationalism, with major players like Galp reportedly curbing diesel exports to prioritize domestic supply.As physical crude prices continue to climb, Sparta warned that governments may soon be forced to implement rationing.

Oil & Energy75d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Over 2% as Middle East Ceasefire Turns Fragile

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, rebounding from their five-week low the day before, after continuing Israeli strikes in Lebanon added to the uncertainties surrounding the ceasefire.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 2.43% at 46.40 euros ($54.11) per megawatt-hour, while UK NBP futures were up 2.53% to 117.14 pence ($1.56) per therm.The two-week ceasefire agreed upon by the US, Israel, and Iran is facing a point of contention involving Lebanon, which continued to be attacked, which Tehran has called a breach of the truce.On Wednesday, Iran's Foreign Minister Seyed Abbas Araghchi said in a post on X that the ceasefire terms were "clear and explicit," and included a halt to hostilities between Israel and Lebanon.Meanwhile, in a Truth Social post on Wednesday, US President Donald Trump said that US forces will "remain in place" in Iran until a complete agreement is reached.Trump also warned that if an agreement is not reached within these two weeks, then the US will restart its offensive against Tehran, "bigger, and better, and stronger than anyone has ever seen before."This highlights the fragility of the truce, with lingering uncertainties continuing to keep global energy and equity markets on edge, even as it marked a major de-escalation.Despite Trump's statements, the Strait of Hormuz remained effectively shut for the sixth-week running, with just 11 vessels transiting through it over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This is in stark contrast to the typical daily average of 138 vessels moving through the Strait during normal times, according to the UK's Joint Maritime Information Center.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, even with the Straits reopening, the markets will have to sail through "higher prices, inventory drawdowns and demand rationing," as it would take time for major production and export facilities to come online.This comes at a time when European markets are stepping into refilling season, with significantly depleted inventories, at just 28.77%, compared to 35% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Oil & Energy75d ago

Libya's Ghadames Basin Yields New Gas, Condensate Discovery

Libya's state-owned National Oil, and Sonatrach confirmed a significant oil and gas discovery at the A1-69/02 exploration well in the Ghadames Basin, NOC said on Wednesday.Located approximately 70 kilometers from the Wafa field, the A1-69/02 well reached a final depth of 8,440 feet and testing has yielded initial production rates of 13 million cubic feet of gas and 327 barrels of condensate per day, it said.The discovery represents the sixth well drilled by the Sonatrach under a 2008 exploration and production sharing agreement with two wells remaining in the current eight-well program.

Oil & Energy75d ago

RBC Capital Markets Raises Commodity Price Outlook for 2026-28

RBC Capital Markets has raised its commodity price outlook due to the potentially long-lasting impact of the conflict between the US and Iran.The analysts said the tightening of supply and demand fundamentals has prompted them to raise their 2026-2028 equilibrium price for Brent/WTI by $10 to $80/$75 and Henry Hub natural gas by $0.25 to $4.00 per million cubic feet."This move reflects ongoing collateral damage in the Gulf region and a rising call on barrels globally from an energy security standpoint," RBC's research note said.It added that share buy-back activities were likely to slow given the recent sharp rise in equities valuations, up by more than 50% in the calendar year so far.In terms of trading ideas, RBC highlighted ConocoPhillips (COP) and EOG Resources (EOG) among large players, California Resources (CRC), Permian Resources (PR) and Chord Energy Group (CHRD) among small to medium and Expand Energy Corp (EXE) in gas.RBC said it had raised its EPS-to-cash flow per share estimates by an average 45% to reflect its revised commodity price expectations with oil players in this basket generally up closer to 55%.In keeping with this, price targets have been raised 27% on average, the note said.

$CHRD$COP$CRC$EOG$EXE$PR

Oil & Energy75d ago

RBC Lifts Oil, Gas Forecasts Amid Enormous Middle East Supply Shock

Global oil and natural gas price forecasts have been sharply revised higher following the latest escalation in the Middle East, with RBC Capital Markets citing an "enormous oil supply shock" and no clear path to de-escalation.In a research report published on Wednesday, the bank said that it now sees Brent crude averaging $90.99 per barrel in 2026, up 51.3% from its prior estimates, with the West Texas Intermediate expected at $83.63 per barrel, a 49.3% upward revision.Similarly, RBC raised its natural gas outlook, with Henry Hub prices seen at $4.07 per Metric Million British Thermal Unit, up 7%. In contrast, European gas prices are expected to more than double, with the UK NBP forecasts at $16.51 per MMBtu.The report said that expectations of normalization in European gas prices had been "upended," as Asian buyers seek out alternative supplies, competing directly with buyers within the bloc.Globally, around one-fifth of LNG supply has been taken offline due to the Iran conflict. However, RBC noted that increased capacity additions and weaker Chinese demand could partially cushion the shock.The bank's analysts also moved their natural gas liquids forecast higher, attributing it to replacement demand for propane and butane, flows of which have been disrupted during the ongoing Strait of Hormuz crisis.

Oil & Energy75d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Prices Bounce as Middle East Truce Hopes Fade

Brent futures gained over 2% on Thursday erasing a portion of yesterday's historic losses as diplomatic friction threatened the newly brokered US-Iran ceasefire deal.The Brent futures contract gained over 2% to $96.97 per barrel. Murban closed at $97.64 on April 8 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update."Prices rebounded as fighting in the Middle East continued, and the ceasefire outlook deteriorated, keeping uncertainty around the Strait of Hormuz firmly in focus," ING analysts noted.After crashing below $100 in the last session, oil prices are rebounding today as the fragile truce faces immediate accusations of non-compliance."Optimism over the ceasefire faded after Tehran said several terms of the agreement had been breached," ING analysts said.The reversal follows a statement from Iranian Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, who claimed on social media that the US has already violated the 10-point framework proposed by Tehran.In a Wednesday post on X, Ghalibaf said Washington had breached three clauses of a 10-point proposal put forward by Iran. He cited what he described as non-compliance with a ceasefire in Lebanon, the reported intrusion of a US drone into Iranian airspace, and the denial of Iran's right to uranium enrichment."With a full reopening of the strait unlikely in the near term, oil prices are expected to remain supported, as disruptions linked to reduced output and refinery shutdowns will take time to unwind," ING analysts added.

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Oil & Energy75d ago