FINWIRES · TerminalLIVE
FINWIRES

US Oil Update: Futures Ease as Trump Signals US-Iran Talks Will Continue Despite Strikes

By

Crude oil futures held steady in midday trading on Friday after President Trump said the US would continue peace talks with Iran despite the latest military exchange, easing concerns that the US-Iran tit-for-tat attacks could trigger a prolonged supply disruption.

Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures slipped by 1.1% to $71.29 per barrel, while Brent futures eased 0.6% to $75.84/bbl.

Saxo Bank strategists said that US-Iran talks, albeit only at a technical level, continue despite a flare-up in fighting this week, with the US saying it remains committed to finding a solution.

Trump said on Friday that the US and Iran have agreed to continue peace talks, even though the ceasefire established by last month's preliminary deal has been scrapped. Trump, in a Truth Social post, said that Tehran "has asked us to continue 'talks'" and that "we have agreed to do so."

The US President said on Friday that he has left instructions that, should Iran succeed in assassinating him, Washington should bomb Iran at levels never seen before, according to media reports.

On Thursday, Iranian armed forces launched attacks on US military infrastructure in the Gulf states after US strikes on Iran's southern coastal and eastern provinces, further straining a creaking ceasefire.

Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said despite the escalation, the US and Iran have stopped short of returning to full-scale conflict, and elements of the interim agreement remain intact, preventing a more severe disruption to regional energy exports.

On the demand side, the International Energy Agency said in its Oil Market Report - July 2026 that renewed hostilities between the two adversaries risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later in 2026.

The agency said seasonal trends and a rebound in fuel supplies are lifting consumption from May lows, with global oil demand forecast to fall by 1 million barrels per day this year before rising by 2 mmbbl/d in 2027.

Global oil demand is projected to rise by over 8 mmbbl/d by October from the May low of 97.9 mmbbl/d, moving above 2025 levels for the first time since February.

On Friday, the IEA said that renewed hostilities between the two sides risk derailing efforts to rebuild depleted global oil inventories later this year.

Meanwhile, the latest commercial vessel-tracking data showed traffic through the Hormuz remains muted for a second consecutive day as ship operators maintained a wide berth amid the lingering threat of regional escalation.

Kpler reported 22 confirmed vessel crossings on July 9, down from 30 the previous day, indicating that shipping companies remain reluctant to return to normal operating patterns following recent security incidents in the region.

Going forward, market participants are closely monitoring Gulf producers' export allocations and the impact of OPEC+'s gradual unwinding of production cuts.

Related Articles

Oil & Energy

Update: Brazil Extends 12% Crude Oil Export Tax for 60 Days

(Updates with additional details from Gecezx's statement throughout the copy.)Brazil's Executive Management Committee of the Foreign Trade Chamber, or Gecex, on Thursday approved a 60-day extension for the continued application of a 12% export tax on crude oil, the committee said in an emailed response to.According to Reuters, which reported the story earlier on Thursday, Gecex maintained a temporary measure introduced in March.Reuters also reported that officials had recently signaled lower oil prices could justify easing or scrapping the levy, but ultimately decided to keep it in place.Gecex toldthe temporary measure is intended to preserve stability in the oil market by ensuring adequate domestic refining conditions and protecting Brazil from potential fuel shortages.The committee said the decision reflects a deterioration in the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, particularly renewed tensions around the Strait of Hormuz.The measure will be reassessed after 30 days based on developments in international markets and their impact on oil and fuel supplies.The full text of the resolutions is expected to be published later Thursday on the Camex website.

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Settle Lower as Market Weigh Fallout From US-Iran Strikes

Crude futures settled lower in after-hours trading on Thursday as market participants weighed the impact of US-Iran military strikes on crude flows and whether heightened Middle East tensions would translate into sustained supply disruptions.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures fell by 2.3% to $71.83 per barrel, while Brent futures dropped 2.5% to $76.09/bbl.Gelber & Associates strategists said WTI crude is trading at $71.74/bbl, down $1.78/bbl and about 2.4% day-over-day, as the market continues to move sideways to lower while traders separate crude availability from broader fuel market stress."Refined products are still flashing tighter conditions, with diesel and gasoline markets carrying more strain than the underlying crude contract as refinery capacity, low product inventories, and Russian fuel disruptions keep margins elevated," Gelber analysts said in a Thursday note.On Thursday, the UKMTO said that commercial vessel traffic via the Strait of Hormuz continued at reduced levels as ship operators maintained a cautious approach following recent attacks on merchant vessels and heightened geopolitical tensions in the region.The agency said traffic through the Hormuz is projected to remain at reduced levels across both the northern Iranian-controlled route and the southern Omani corridor, reflecting continued caution among operators.The latest commercial vessel-tracking data showed a drop-off in Hormuz transits, as renewed attacks on commercial vessels, US-Iran tit-for-tat strikes and a decline in tanker positioning signal that the strategic waterway remains vulnerable.Kpler said that recent strong export volumes through the waterway have largely reflected the movement of cargoes delayed during the period of disruption rather than a broad-based recovery in regular shipping activity.Meanwhile, Lloyd's List said in an X post that no vessels above 10,000 deadweight tons have transited the Southern Highway with their AIS switched on since July 7, although at least two ships are believed to have crossed dark.Saxo Bank strategists said that the disruption is a reminder that the Strait never fully reopened and that the recent removal of the geopolitical risk premium may have been premature.The US and Iran traded strikes for a second day on Wednesday, and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps retaliated by striking Washington's military infrastructure in the Middle East, raising fears of a return to war after little progress in efforts to secure a diplomatic outcome.US Central Command said it hit about 90 targets on Wednesday, after 80 the previous day, "to further degrade" Iran's ability to attack commercial shipping in the Hormuz. Iran responded by targeting US bases in Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar and Jordan.Iranian Speaker of Parliament Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said on Thursday that the US can no longer pursue policies of bullying and reneging on its commitments without facing consequences."... Let me put it plainly: if you strike, you'll get hit," Ghalibaf said in a post on X, reiterating that the Strait of Hormuz will only open with "Iranian arrangements."Going forward, Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that the trajectory of the US-Iran conflict, the security of shipping through the Strait and the scale of any disruption to Gulf oil exports will remain the key drivers of oil prices.Meanwhile, US commercial crude oil inventories increased by 3 million barrels to 411.4 mmbbls in the week ended July 3, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.Crude inventories are now about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year, the EIA said.

Oil & Energy

Market Chatter: Traceable Shipping Through Strait of Hormuz Nearly Stops

Traffic through the Strait of Hormuz is effectively "grinding to a halt" following the latest escalation between the US and Iran, Lloyd's List said Thursday in a post on X.Lloyd's List Intelligence data showed no vessels larger than 10,000 deadweight tons have transited the US-coordinated Omani lane with their automatic identification system signals switched on since July 7.Traceable vessel movements through the shipping lane have effectively stopped, marking a sharp decline in traffic along one of the world's busiest energy shipping corridors.Lloyd's List added that at least two vessels are believed to have crossed the route with AIS turned off, although those transits could not be tracked.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)