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Update: OPEC Lowers 2026 Global Oil Demand Growth Outlook for Third Straight Month in July

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The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries on Monday lowered its global oil demand growth forecasts for the third straight month for 2026, projecting demand to grow by 800,000 barrels per day year-on-year in 2026.

This compares with OPEC's global oil demand growth forecast at 1 million bbl/d year over year in June, 1.2 mmbbl/d in May, and 1.4 mmbbl/d in April.

In 2027, global demand is projected to grow by about 1.9 mmbbl/d, year over year, up from last month's forecasts of 1.7 mmbbl/d, OPEC said in its Monthly Oil Market Report.

Liquids production from countries not participating in the Declaration of Cooperation is expected to grow by 600,000 bbl/d on average in 2026 versus 2025. Growth in 2027 is also estimated at 600,000 bbl/d over 2026 levels. Both assessments are unchanged from last month's update.

This increase in output is primarily driven by Brazil, Canada, Qatar, the US, and Argentina.

Natural gas liquids and non-conventional liquids from countries participating in the Declaration of Cooperation are expected to grow by about 100,000 bbl/d over the year in both 2026 and 2027, averaging 8.8 mmbbl/d and 8.9 mmbbl/d, respectively.

In June, crude oil production by countries participating in the DOC rose by about 3 mmbbl/d month-over-month to average 36.28 mmbbl/d, OPEC said, citing data from secondary sources.

OPEC said refining margins on the US Gulf Coast continued to decline in June, along with Rotterdam, "pressured by lower product prices and a drop in offline capacity in the Atlantic Basin."

Meanwhile, margins rose in Singapore, supported by higher crude inflows into the region, cheaper feedstock costs, and reduced concerns over crude supply disruptions in June.

"Although a slight increase in Asian refinery runs contributed to lower product prices, the decline in crude prices was considerably more pronounced, providing a lift to refining operations despite lower product crack spreads across the barrel," the report said.

OPEC retained its assessment from last month for global economic growth at 3.1% for 2026 and 3.2% for 2027.

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