Financial News · Live Terminal

Page 31 of 58

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Roughly 3% After Trump's Latest Threat to Iran

European natural gas futures were up on Friday amid mounting fears of prolonged supply disruptions following US President Donald Trump's latest threats against Iran.The front-month Dutch TTF contract gained 2.61% to 48.90 euros ($56.88) per megawatt hour, while the UK NBP front-month rose 3.06% to 120.35 British pence ($1.61) per therm.On Thursday, Trump said he would not be "much more patient" with Iran, while speaking with Fox News' Sean Hannity. He also warned that Tehran "should make a deal" as negotiations remain stalled over key nuclear issues, including the fate of the country's stockpile of enriched uranium.Iranian Foreign Minister Seyyed Abbas Araghchi has said that the US should abandon its maximalist demands to proceed with the deal during a meeting with Thai Foreign Minister Sihasak Phuangketkeow during the BRICS meet in New Delhi on Thursday.Meanwhile, the strategically critical Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, witnessed an uptick in traffic, with 30 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor. This, however, is still significantly below the typical daily average of 138 vessels before the conflict began.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, there are still little to no signs of supply disruptions easing.At the same time, he warned that the "pockets of demand for LNG" across South Asia, could intensify competition with European markets, for a limited pool of global supplies.This also comes at a time when Europe is knee deep into its refilling season with significantly depleted gas inventories, at 35.85% of capacity, compared to 43.36% last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe. Inventories were also below the five-year average of 48.8% during this period, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Iran Conflict Sets Dollar on Strengthening Trend, Importer Currencies Slide, Bloomberg Analysis Shows

Movements of Brent crude futures prices and movements in the dollar are the most tightly correlated they have ever been, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing an analysis of Bloomberg Dollar Spot Index and Brent Crude Futures.The article that the correlation between the Bloomberg dollar index and Brent is its highest ever, meaning the dollar is strengthening in close tandem with rises in oil prices and vice versa.Brent prices have risen about 45% since the start of the Iran war, disrupting supplies through the subsequent closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a key transit point for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas.At the same time the Bloomberg's dollar gauge has risen nearly 1%, with the correlation turning positive in early March and staying that way until now.The story said the strong correlation between oil price movements and the dollar is due to geopolitics and risk appetite, overshadowing any other fundamentals that might otherwise have more influence.This was visible on Thursday when the index increased 0.3% as Brent did roughly the same, with traders watching the meeting between the US and Chinese presidents.The article notes that the relation had been negative between the dollar and oil prior to the start of the Iran war, with the trend flipping in early March days after the conflict began, and staying positive since.The article quoted Chris Turner, head of foreign exchange strategy at ING Bank who wrote this week that the next moves in currencies will be driven by the direction of oil prices and central bank policies in the face of higher inflation.During the oil crises of the 1970s, the US was a net oil importer and sharp rises in oil prices meant the dollar got weaker as more of them were handed over to the world's biggest oil suppliers.Now the US is the world's biggest supplier and instead, it is import-reliant Asian economies watching their currencies weaken as they import dollar-priced crude.The article, in a similar vein to other analyst reports, says that governments have been too slow to adopt renewable energy and boost security of supply with domestically-produced energy.Instead, Asian countries are digging deficit holes in their budgets as they seek to shield their consumers from spikes in fuel costs and keep inflation under control.The author says governments would achieve more by scrapping import taxes on electric cars than spending on subsidizing "years" of fuel imports.It also says an embrace of cleaner energy could make this energy crisis the last that will be borne by some of the world's poorest who face higher costs to obtain gas for cooking.

Oil & Energy40d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Brent Gains Over 1% Amid Escalating Gulf Shipping Incidents

Brent crude prices gained over 1% on Friday after a fresh tanker seizure in the Strait of Hormuz and the imminent expiry of India's Russian oil waiver stoked fears of a deepening global supply crunch.The Brent futures contract gained 1.6% to $107.36 per barrel. Murban futures closed at $104.70 on May 14 and was not trading as of the time of publishing this oil price update.The price gains reflect a market reacting to immediate shipping threats in the Middle East alongside tightening alternative options for Asian refiners, analysts noted.The geopolitical gridlock continues to severely erode global safety buffers, overshadowing high-level statements from the Trump-Xi summit in Beijing."The two leaders discussed increase oil trade, and both agreed that Iran can never have a nuclear weapon," ANZ analysts said.However, the market mood soured rapidly after a UK naval monitoring group reported that a commercial vessel was boarded and seized by unauthorized personnel at the entrance of the Strait of Hormuz.The captured tanker is reportedly currently being forced into Iranian territorial waters, an incident that closely follows the confirmed sinking of an Indian merchant ship in the nearby Gulf of Oman.These severe security disruptions occurred even as four tankers carrying 2 million barrels of primarily Iraqi crude successfully braved the high-risk transit routes earlier this week.Adding to the physical supply friction, the US Central Command confirmed it has actively rerouted 70 commercial vessels as part of its ongoing naval blockade of Iranian ports.This aggressive enforcement coincides with growing anxiety among major Asian energy buyers, particularly in India, where a US sanctions waiver on Russian oil-on-water cargoes is scheduled to expire this weekend.While Indian refiners have imported bumper volumes of discounted Russian crude under the temporary exemption, Washington has yet to grant New Delhi's formal request for an extension.

Oil & Energy40d ago

US Oil Update: Futures Steady Amid Xi-Trump Talks, Hormuz Risks Persist

Crude futures largely held steady in after-hours trading on Thursday as markets weighed developments from the US-China trade summit against limited vessel transits through the Strait of Hormuz amid the ongoing Middle East conflict.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.99% to $102.02 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 0.87% to $106.55/bbl.The US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday that crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels in the week ended May 8. The agency said the stockpiles are now about 0.3% above the five-year average for this time of year."The draw is driven by continued strength in crude oil exports, which grew by 742k b/d week-on-week," ING strategists said in a note on Thursday.On Thursday, the White House said President Trump met with Chinese President Xi Jinping, noting that the two leaders agreed the Strait of Hormuz must be open for the free flow of energy. Xi said the "rejuvenation of China" and "Make America Great Again" can go hand in hand.Trump said President Xi had offered China's help to open the Hormuz and expressed interest in buying American oil to reduce Beijing's dependence on the strategic waterway in the future. The Xi-Trump summit was held amid the ongoing Middle East conflict that has roiled global markets.Iran began allowing some Chinese vessels to transit through the Hormuz on Thursday following an agreement on Tehran's management protocols for the waterway. Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission has reportedly finalized a comprehensive plan for the security and development of the Persian Gulf and the Strait.Tehran reportedly allowed about 30 vessels to cross the Hormuz, though attacks on one ship and the seizure of another kept stoking concerns of supply disruptions.Iran allowed some Chinese vessels to transit the Hormuz on Thursday following an agreement on Tehran's management protocols for the waterway. Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission has reportedly finalized a comprehensive plan for the security and development of the Persian Gulf and the Strait.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center says it received a report of a vessel being "taken by unauthorized personnel" near the UAE emirate of Fujairah. UKMTO said the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE in the Gulf of Oman, where it was anchored.On Thursday, the US Central Command also said it had redirected 70 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.On the supply side, OPEC and the International Energy Agency published their latest updates on how the Iran war has impacted the oil market.The IEA said that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day, as demand is now expected to contract by 2.4 million b/d year-over-year in Q2 and 420,000 b/d for the entire year.Market participants are closely monitoring the expiry of a US sanctions waiver that allows the purchase of Russian oil cargoes, after India reportedly asked Washington for an extension.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Iranian Oil Tanker Moving Toward China After Going Dark, Kpler Says

The Very Large Crude Carrier Huge resurfaced near Vietnam carrying roughly 2 million barrels of Iranian crude after disappearing from vessel tracking systems earlier this month, Kpler said in a Thursday note.Satellite images taken on May 13 showed the VLCC tanker sailing north near Vietnam after the vessel stopped broadcasting AIS signals following a May 3 transit through the Lombok Strait, according to Kpler.Kpler said the tanker appears to be heading toward China after avoiding the more closely monitored Malacca Strait route used by many Middle Eastern crude shipments.The vessel's final destination remains uncertain, although Kpler said the cargo could move toward offshore areas near Hong Kong where dark ship-to-ship transfers of Iranian oil have previously occurred.Kpler identified Huge and Derya as two of the first confirmed Iranian crude tankers to reroute through the Lombok Strait as enforcement pressure increased along Southeast Asia's main oil shipping corridor.Huge loaded crude near Iran's Kharg Island around April 1, while Kpler satellite imagery later located the tanker near Chabahar on April 13, shortly before US blockade measures started.The tanker later vanished from tracking systems before briefly reappearing on AIS data on May 2 during its Lombok Strait transit, the report said.Kpler said the vessel's route and tracking gaps indicate operators are trying to avoid growing surveillance and enforcement activity along the Malacca Strait corridor.

Oil & Energy40d ago

Global Shale Expansion Gains Pace as US Producers Look Overseas, Wood Mackenzie Says

Energy companies are increasingly exploring international shale opportunities as US producers search for new growth beyond maturing domestic basins, Wood Mackenzie said in a Thursday note.Wood Mackenzie said producers need additional long-term resources to offset expected declines from aging oil and gas fields over the next decade.The combination of hydraulic fracturing and long horizontal drilling helped turn the US into the world's largest oil and gas producer, exceeding Saudi Arabia and Russia combined when natural gas liquids are included.Shale wells lose output quickly after reaching peak production, forcing operators to continuously drill new wells and maintain dense drilling programs to sustain volumes, Wood Mackenzie added.Many international shale projects failed during the previous decade because countries outside the US lacked strong infrastructure, deep capital markets, advanced drilling services and flexible regulations.As growth slows across mature US shale basins, larger producers are now looking overseas to apply technologies and operating experience developed in the US, Wood Mackenzie said.Wood Mackenzie said international shale projects will need large-scale deployment of advanced US drilling and fracking technologies to lower costs, while operators must also improve field execution compared with earlier global shale developments.Argentina's Vaca Muerta and Saudi Arabia's Jafurah have already demonstrated that large-scale international shale projects can succeed after years of gradual development, according to the note.Wood Mackenzie said Vaca Muerta currently produces 1 million barrels of oil equivalent per day, while Saudi Arabia launched production from the Jafurah shale gas project earlier in 2026.The two projects together could attract about $250 billion in total investment and eventually produce 2.5 million boe/d over their lifespans, the note said.Energy companies are also showing increasing interest in shale opportunities across the UAE, Algeria, Mexico, Australia, Turkey and Indonesia, according to Wood Mackenzie.The note said many international shale projects still face obstacles tied to geology, infrastructure limitations, government policies and investment conditions outside the US market.Wood Mackenzie added that the Iran conflict could strengthen interest in Global Shale 2.0 as countries seek more diverse energy supplies and international oil companies try to avoid missing another major shale growth cycle.

Oil & Energy41d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Gains on Xi-Trump Talks, Iran Eases Select Hormuz Transits

Crude oil futures advanced in midday trading on Thursday after the White House said President Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping agreed that the Strait of Hormuz must remain open, as allowed passage via the key chokepoint to select vessels.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures rose by 0.92% to $101.88 per barrel, while Brent futures gained 0.36% to $106.06/bbl.US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 million barrels in the week ended May 8, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday. The agency said the stockpiles are now about 0.3% above the five-year average for this time of year."The draw is driven by continued strength in crude oil exports, which grew by 742k b/d week-on-week," ING strategists said in a note on Thursday.On Thursday, Trump met China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing, and the two leaders' discussions included the ongoing Iran conflict and increased oil ties between the world's two biggest economies.The US President said President Xi had offered China's help to open the Hormuz and expressed interest in buying American oil to reduce Beijing's dependence on the strategic waterway in the future.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent also said China will use its influence in Iran to help reopen the strategic waterway, according to media reports. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite pressure from the Trump administration."Oil prices established as US President Trump and Chinese President Xi began high-level talks in Beijing, while the Iran war and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global energy markets," said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG.Iran began allowing some Chinese vessels to transit through the Hormuz on Thursday following an agreement on Tehran's management protocols for the waterway. Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission has reportedly finalized a comprehensive plan for the security and development of the Persian Gulf and the Strait.Meanwhile, the United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center says it received a report of a vessel being "taken by unauthorized personnel" near the UAE emirate of Fujairah. UKMTO said the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE in the Gulf of Oman, where it was anchored.On Thursday, the US Central Command also said it had redirected 70 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.The ongoing Middle East conflict has driven global oil inventories down at a record pace, and the market will remain "severely undersupplied" until October even if the conflict ends next month, the International Energy Agency said in its monthly report on Wednesday."With global oil inventories already drawing at a record clip, further price volatility appears likely ahead of the peak summer demand period," the IEA said in its Oil Market Report.The IEA said that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day, as demand is now expected to contract by 2.4 million b/d year-over-year in Q2 and 420,000 b/d for the entire year.Market participants are closely monitoring the expiry of a US sanctions waiver allowing purchases of Russian oil cargoes, which could further tighten global supply conditions.

Oil & Energy41d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Steadies on Xi-Trump Talks, Iran Allows Select Hormuz Transits

EMEA crude futures were little changed in after-hours trading on Thursday as President Trump and his Chinese counterpart discussed the ongoing Middle East conflict, while Iran allowed a limited number of vessels to transit the Strait of Hormuz.Brent crude futures eased by 0.44% to $105.16 per barrel, while Murban oil futures were up 0.42% to $104.59/bbl.Trump met China's President Xi Jinping on Thursday, and the two leaders' discussions included the ongoing Iran conflict and increased oil ties between the world's two biggest economies.The US President said the Chinese leader had offered China's help to open the Hormuz and pledged not to send military equipment to aid Iran in its ongoing conflict against the US-Israel alliance.US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent reportedly said China will use its influence in Iran to help reopen the strategic waterway. China is the biggest buyer of Iranian oil despite pressure from the Trump administration.Bessent said it is in China's interest to get the strategic waterway reopened, adding that Beijing will be working behind the scenes, according to media reports."Oil prices established as US President Trump and Chinese President Xi began high-level talks in Beijing, while the Iran war and the near closure of the Strait of Hormuz continued to disrupt global energy markets," said Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG.The effective closure of the Hormuz has significantly disrupted global supplies of crude, natural gas and fuels, stoking fears of reignited inflation.Meanwhile, Iran said on Thursday it had begun allowing some Chinese vessels to transit through the Hormuz following an agreement on Tehran's management protocols for the waterway.Iran's National Security and Foreign Policy Commission reportedly finalized a comprehensive plan on Wednesday for the security and development of the Persian Gulf and the Strait.The United Kingdom Maritime Trade Operations Center says it received a report of a vessel being "taken by unauthorized personnel" near the UAE emirate of Fujairah. UKMTO said the ship was taken 38 nautical miles off the UAE in the Gulf of Oman, where it was anchored.The US Central Command said on Thursday it has redirected 70 commercial vessels as part of a blockade targeting ships entering and exiting Iranian ports.On the supply front, the International Energy Agency said on Wednesday that global observed oil inventories dropped by 250 million barrels in March and April, or at a rate of about 4 million barrels per day, as demand is now expected to contract by 2.4 million b/d year-over-year in Q2 and 420,000 b/d for the entire year.OPEC also said on Wednesday that crude production among member states fell further in April and is down more than 30% since the onset of the conflict in late February. The producer group said production fell by 1.7 million b/d in April after output plunged by 7.9 million b/d in March.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Trump Says Xi Wants Strait of Hormuz Open as Leaders Discuss Iran Conflict in Beijing

US President Donald Trump said Thursday that Chinese President Xi Jinping expressed hope that a peace deal will be made soon with Iran and the Strait of Hormuz will be reopened, as the two leaders met in Beijing."He would like to see the Hormuz Strait open," Trump told Fox News in an interview as the Iran conflict continued to disrupt oil shipments through the key trade route."President Xi would like to see a deal made. He would, he would like to see a deal made," Trump told Fox News after the first day of talks in Beijing. "And he did offer. He said, 'If I can be of any help at all, I would like to be of help.'"The Strait of Hormuz "must remain open," a US summary of the meeting reported, adding that China opposed militarization or tolls in the waterway.Secretary of State Marco Rubio told NBC News Thursday that the US raised the Iran issue because of its global importance, adding that the US does not need China's help on the issue.Trump invited Xi to visit the White House in September during opening remarks in Beijing.Separately, Xi warned Trump during the summit that mistakes over Taiwan could damage relations and even push both countries toward conflict."The Taiwan question is the most important issue in China-US relations. If mishandled, the two nations could collide or even come into conflict," Chinese state media outlet Xinhua cited Xi as saying.The two countries "should be partners and not rivals," Xi said as the leaders opened talks at Beijing's Great Hall of the People.The meeting lasted about two hours and 15 minutes and covered Iran, trade, Taiwan and broader geopolitical tensions between the two countries, according to the media reports.The summit added pressure for Trump as the Iran conflict weighed on his approval ratings and increased pressure for diplomatic and economic gains.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Update: Brazil Approves Subsidies for Gasoline, Diesel

(Updates with additional details from Brazilian government statement.)The Brazilian government on Wednesday said it will subsidize gasoline and diesel through a Provisional Measure to mitigate the inflationary impact of the Middle East conflict."The objective is to cushion the rise in fuel prices caused by the prolonged war in the Middle East," according to a statement by the Ministry of Planning and Budget.The Ministry of Finance will publish a decree over the next few days establishing the subsidized amounts.The subsidy will be paid directly to gasoline producers and importers through the National Agency of Petroleum, Natural Gas and Biofuels, or the ANP, according to the statement.Brazil's Minister of Mines and Energy Alexandre Silveira, the Minister of Planning and Budget Bruno Moretti, and the Executive Secretary of the Ministry of Finance, Rogerio Ceron, jointly made the announcement during a press conference on Wednesday.The Provisional Measure establishes that the subsidy cannot exceed the ceiling of federal taxes levied on fuels, the statement said.Gasoline is currently taxed at 0.89 Brazilian reais ($0.17) per liter, inclusive of federal fuel taxes, while diesel is taxed at 0.35 Brazilian reais per liter, which was suspended in March.The new subsidy will start with gasoline, which has not received any subsidy or tax cut since the war began. "But it could be extended to diesel when the subsidy established by Provisional Measure No. 1,340, with a planned duration for the months of April and May, ceases to be applied," according to the statement.The new subsidy is part of Brazil's broader effort to curb fuel price increases linked to the Middle East conflict.The government has already announced subsidies of 1.52 Brazilian reais per liter for imported diesel and 1.12 Brazilian reais per liter for domestically produced diesel.According to a Bloomberg report, citing Planning Minister Bruno Moretti, the government intends to spend up to 2.9 billion reais per month to subsidize both domestically produced and imported gasoline and diesel.The program was introduced on Wednesday through a directive issued by President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, who is likely to seek re-election later this year. It will run for two months and will be extended if required, the report added.The subsidy is expected to be extended to diesel from June onwards following the expiry of an existing one at the end of May, Reuters reported.The directive was issued after a proposal to slash federal fuel taxes stalled in Congress, according to Reuters.The move is expected to allow Petrobras (PBR) to increase prices. The state-controlled energy major has delayed price revisions to shield domestic consumers from international oil price volatility, a separate Bloomberg report said.Price: $19.97, Change: $+0.38, Percent Change: +1.94%

$PBR

Oil & Energy41d ago

Hormuz Crude Shipments Inch Higher as Supertankers Sail Out, Bloomberg Analysis Says

The exports of unsanctioned crude via the Strait of Hormuz have edged higher in recent days, providing a slight reprieve for global markets grappling with the most severe supply disruption on record, Bloomberg analysis showed on Thursday.Four supertankers carrying about 2 million barrels each, primarily of Iraqi origin, have transited the Hormuz since May 10.The recent rate of about 2 million barrels per day remains a fraction of pre-war activity, when an average of 20 tankers of various sizes crossed the strategic waterway daily.Market participants are closely monitoring flows via the Strait as a prolonged blockage has already removed an estimated 1 billion barrels from the global balance.Though non-Iranian shipments have shown a marginal uptick, exports from the country have fallen steeply following the implementation of a US blockade.Vessel tracking data shows that some vessels have recently crossed the Hormuz with satellite tracking systems turned off, suggesting the number of transits could rise once those ships reappear outside the region.The strategic waterway has remained largely closed since the outbreak of the Middle East conflict in late February and has been subject to an ongoing US-Iran standoff.Earlier in May, Iran outlined a revised procedure for ships seeking to transit the Hormuz, requiring engagement with the newly established Persian Gulf Strait Authority.Simultaneously, the US has maintained restrictions on Iranian port access from the edge of the Gulf of Oman.Of the four vessels that have recently departed with their tracking signals active, three loaded crude oil in Iraq, while the fourth carried cargoes from the UAE and Kuwait.On Thursday, Iran said it is now permitting Chinese vessels to transit the Strait following discussions with China's Ministry of Foreign Affairs. Supertanker Yuan Hua Hu, which crossed the Hormuz on Wednesday, became the third Chinese Very Large Crude Carrier to pass through the waterway.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Market Chatter: Vitol Offers Iraqi Crude Outside Hormuz as Some Tankers Resume Exports

Vitol is offering Iraqi Basrah crude outside the Strait of Hormuz, signaling that some oil cargoes may now be leaving the Persian Gulf, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing people familiar with the matter.Sources said Vitol recently marketed Basrah Medium and Basrah Heavy cargoes via ship-to-ship transfers near Fujairah in the UAE.Since the conflict and blockade around the Strait of Hormuz began, traders have rarely sold Iraqi crude cargoes in spot markets because most Gulf oil exports struggled to leave the region.Adnoc was among the first Gulf producers to move crude cargoes out through the Strait of Hormuz after shipments stalled across the region.Iraq loads most Basrah crude from terminals inside the Persian Gulf, while its state-owned State Organization for Marketing of Oil usually sells cargoes through long-term supply agreements and partnerships in oil fields, the report said.Problems securing tankers for Iraqi shipments have reduced crude exports and weakened SOMO revenue, leading the state oil marketer to offer discounts on cargoes loading this month.Bloomberg tanker-tracking data showed the tanker Agios Fanourios I reversed course near the US naval line outside the Gulf after carrying 2 million barrels of Basrah crude toward Vietnam earlier this week.Kpler data showed the Kiara M exited the Strait of Hormuz on May 10 after loading Iraqi crude in April, then transferred the cargo to another tanker near Sohar.In response to' query, a Vitol spokesperson said that the firm had no comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy41d ago

Atlantic Gasoline Markets Tighten as Eastbound Trade Reverses, Vortexa Says

Global gasoline markets are tightening ahead of the peak US summer driving season as Atlantic Basin fuel flows reverse, inventories shrink and refinery constraints deepen supply concerns, Vortexa analyst Mick Strautmann said in a Wednesday note.After roughly six weeks of gasoline and blending components moving eastward from the Atlantic Basin into Asia, the arbitrage has flipped, prompting western markets to retain more supply.The shift comes as gasoline refining margins on both sides of the Atlantic climb to multi-year highs and US retail fuel prices reach levels last seen in 2022, Vorterxa said, citing Energy Information Administration data.Atlantic Basin exports to the Pacific Basin hit consecutive 10-year highs in March and April as Asian refinery run cuts, driven by reduced Middle Eastern crude availability following disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz and export restrictions from China and South Korea, pulled barrels from Europe, the US Gulf Coast and Nigeria.That eastbound trade eased in early April as crude supplies into Asia diversified and the arbitrage closed. Attention has since turned back to the Atlantic Basin, where inventories remain tight.Northwest Europe gasoline and blending component exports to the US East Coast have begun their typical seasonal increase, but second-quarter volumes remain more than 30% below year-earlier levels and near the bottom of historical seasonal ranges."ARA inventories sit materially below year-ago levels... drawn down by high export levels since the start of Hormuz disruptions," the analysis said, citing data from Insights Global via Argus.While European suppliers remain capable of serving both Atlantic and Pacific markets, competition for barrels is lifting prices.In the US, refiners face an additional constraint: shortages of high-octane blending components such as alkylates.US refineries are operating at elevated utilization rates ahead of summer, with Gulf Coast plants running near maximum capacity.Still, the steepest RBOB gasoline backwardation since the post-pandemic transport recovery, which is discouraging inventory builds and is likely to keep prices elevated through the driving season, even if Hormuz-related disruptions ease.Despite measures including a national Reid Vapor Pressure waiver of gasoline by the Environmental Protection Agency and discussions of a federal gasoline tax suspension, Strautmann said the Atlantic Basin is entering summer with its tightest gasoline balance in years.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Europe's Jet Fuel Market Swings To Acute Shortfall Amid Supply Disruptions, Rystad Says

Europe's jet fuel market has shifted from structurally tight to acutely short after major supply disruptions cut flows by about one million barrels per day, Rystad Energy strategists said in a note on Thursday.Rystad said that the closure of the Strait of Hormuz has removed about 500,000 b/d of Middle East refinery exports, while Asian refinery run cuts have reduced supply by a further 500,000 b/d.The combined loss equals over 10% of the projected 2026 global jet demand of 8 million b/d.Jet fuel prices in Europe are now more than double their 2025 averages, outpacing a rise of over 70% in Brent crude, while Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp hub stocks have fallen to 579,000 metric tons, their lowest level in six years, leaving about six weeks of cover.European inventories are set to breach the critical 23-day cover threshold by June under current trends, Rystad said."Europe is not facing a tight market. It is facing a structural supply hole," said Susan Bell, senior vice president, Commodities, Oil at Rystad Energy.Bell said that record US Gulf Coast exports of 110,000 b/d to Europe, alongside cargoes from West Africa, including Nigeria's Dangote refinery, are helping offset losses but cover only about half the deficit."A ceasefire would move futures fast, but physical jet markets will not normalize until at least 60 days after the strait reopens," she said.Europe imports more than 30% of its jet fuel, with the Middle East typically supplying about 65% of those imports and Asia a further 22%. Both regions are now constrained.Rystad said April inflows from the US Gulf Coast hit a record 110,000 b/d, but combined Atlantic Basin flows cover just over half of the lost Middle East supply.Bell said even if replacement volumes improve to 75% of the deficit, stocks would still breach the 23-day threshold by August.Meanwhile, demand destruction is offering limited relief. European jet demand is running about 150,000 b/d below 2025 levels as airlines cut unprofitable routes, with prices around $4.50 per gallon.Lufthansa has canceled 20,000 flights, Spirit Airlines has ceased operations, and United Airlines has warned of potential ticket price increases of up to 20%.Rystad lowered its forecast for 2026 global jet demand growth to about 200,000 b/d year over year, down from 400,000 b/d previously. Growth could turn negative if the Strait remains closed beyond mid-June.The consultancy said if the strategic waterway reopened immediately, physical markets would need around 60 days to normalize.Of the 300,000 b/d of jet supply lost to refinery damage, Rystad analysts said about half could recover swiftly, while Asian throughputs would ramp within 30 to 60 days of crude resuming.

Oil & Energy41d ago

Market Chatter: OPEC+ Plans to Fully Restore Production Targets by September

Key members of the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and their allies aim to further increase production quotas in three monthly stages to fully restore the 2023 supply cutback of 1.65 million barrels per day by the end of September, Bloomberg reported Thursday, citing three delegates.After the last agreement to increase production targets by 188,000 b/d for June, the group has so far decided to restore about two-thirds of the halted output.The delegates told the news agency that the remaining layer will be revived despite shipping constraints in the Persian Gulf and Abu Dhabi's exit from the organization, which alone removes 144,000 b/d of the original supply cut.The effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz following the onset of the US-Iran war has restricted Middle Eastern producers' ability to export oil, thereby cutting their own crude production.OPEC leader Saudi Arabia has reduced its output to its lowest since 1990 at 6.3 mmb/d in April, while Kuwait, Iraq, and the UAE also reported production declines versus pre-war levels.While the planned supply increases may not materialize physically due to restrictions, OPEC+ reportedly continues to review its production policies. The alliance is set to meet on June 7 to discuss their plan for July.OPEC+ also continues to review its members' maximum production capacities to better calibrate quotas in 2027, according to the sources cited by the news agency. The assessment, conducted by Dallas-based consultant DeGolyer and MacNaughton, began in 2025.The organization did not immediately respond to' request for comment.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)

Oil & Energy41d ago

Hormuz Crisis Disrupts LPG Supplies, Threatens Clean Cooking Progress, IEA Says

The disruption in LPG supplies through the Strait of Hormuz has triggered a major cooking fuel crisis across Asia and raised fears of setbacks to clean cooking gains in Africa, the International Energy Agency said.Developing Asia is the world's largest consumer of LPG for cooking, with nearly 2.4 billion people relying on the fuel.India and Indonesia alone have shifted more than 800 million people away from wood, charcoal and kerosene since 2010 through large-scale clean cooking campaigns. At present, LPG is used by 90% of households in Indonesia and 80% in India.But both countries depend heavily on imports from the Middle East. In 2025, roughly two-thirds of India's LPG imports passed through the Strait of Hormuz.Shipping disruptions linked to escalating conflict in the Middle East caused LPG exports through the strait to plunge by about 80% in March 2026, falling from an average 1.5 million barrels per day in 2025 to just 300,000 b/d, according to the IEA.India has been among the hardest hit. LPG imports fell by more than half in the first two months of the crisis, cutting supplies by around 430,000 b/d. Authorities ordered domestic refineries to maximize production, adding an estimated 180,000 b/d, while introducing emergency measures to protect household cooking supplies.However, India's limited storage capacity, enough for just over 10 days of consumption, has left consumers exposed to shortages and rising prices. Commercial users have struggled to secure fuel, while reports indicate some urban residents have returned to rural areas where wood and charcoal are more accessible.The crisis has also sent LPG prices sharply higher worldwide. Import prices in India and East Africa rose as much as 90% above 2025 averages in March, while West African prices climbed 70%, despite the region sourcing little LPG directly from Gulf exporters.The IEA warned that soaring prices could reverse progress toward clean cooking in sub-Saharan Africa, where many low-income households may revert to charcoal or firewood. Nearly half of LPG users in the region are now spending a significantly larger share of their income on cooking fuel, the agency estimated.Governments have responded with subsidies, price caps and incentives for electric cooking alternatives as concerns grow over long-term fuel security.

Oil & Energy41d ago

US Oil Update: Crude Slips Following Reports of Tankers Crossing Hormuz

Global oil prices retreated on Thursday following reports that Iran has begun allowing limited maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude futures dropped by 0.4% to $100.58 per barrel, while Brent futures fell by 0.6% to $104.96/bbl.According to Iranian state media, about 30 vessels have crossed the strategic chokepoint since Wednesday evening with Tehran's permission.The Fars news agency further noted that authorities have specifically begun allowing transit for certain Chinese-affiliated vessels, signaling a tactical shift in Iran's blockade strategy.The sudden, if limited, easing of maritime restrictions coincides with the high-stakes summit between President Trump and President Xi Jinping in Beijing.Market participants are closely watching the talks, with some analysts at ING suggesting that traders may be overly optimistic that China, Iran's primary oil buyer can broker a deal to end the war.President Trump has downplayed the likelihood of a diplomatic breakthrough regarding the energy crisis, stating that Washington has the situation "under control".Despite the slight cooling of prices, fundamental data shows markets remain tightly supplied.The International Energy Agency has aggressively revised its 2026 outlook, now predicting a demand contraction of 420,000 b/d, while OPEC reported that its April production plummeted by 1.73 mb/d to 18.98 million b/d.This output drop, during the final month of the UAE's membership in the group, underscores the severe impact of the 10-week blockade.

Oil & Energy41d ago

EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Rise Despite Iran's Assurances on Hormuz Shipping

European natural gas futures were up on Thursday, despite Iran's statement saying that the Strait of Hormuz was open for all vessels, provided they cooperate with the Iranian Navy.The front-month Dutch TTF contract was up 1.41% at 47.58 euros ($55.63) per megawatt-hour, while the UK NBP front-month contract was up 1.31% to 116.54 British pence ($1.58) per therm.Iran's foreign minister, Seyed Abbas Araghchi told Iran's PressTV: "As far as we are concerned, the Strait of Hormuz is open for all commercial vessels, but they need to cooperate with our navy forces,".He made the comments on the sidelines of the BRICS Foreign Ministers' Meeting in New Delhi on Thursday.Yet, the strategically crucial Strait, which handled one-fifth of global LNG flows, remained effectively closed for the 11th week running, with just 17 vessels transiting over the past 24 hours, according to the Hormuz Strait Monitor.This comes at a critical juncture for European gas markets, with the region's inventories significantly depleted, holding just 35.72% of capacity, compared to 43.1% during the same period last year, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventory levels were also significantly below the five-year average of 48.4% for this time of year, according to data from the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.Cyril Widdershoven, a geopolitical strategist at Blue Water Strategy, warned that the markets were still pricing this conflict as "temporary," while maritime transport prices were pointing to long-term impact, with war-risk premiums, rerouting costs, insurance, inflation, and more, becoming "structurally embedded into the global energy system."

Oil & Energy41d ago

EMEA Oil Update: Crude Eases as Iran Reportedly Grants Limited Passage Through Hormuz

Crude futures slipped on Thursday with the start of the Trump-Xi summit and reports of 30 vessels successfully navigating the Strait of Hormuz providing the backdrop to the trading day.Front-month Murban crude futures dropped 0.6% to $103.51 per barrel, while Brent futures fell by 0.5% to $105.13/bbl.According to Iranian state media, about 30 vessels have crossed the Strait of Hormuz since Wednesday evening with Tehran's permission.The market also had an eye on the high-stakes summit between US President Donald Trump and China's President Xi Jinping in Beijing."The market could be pinning too much hope on the US-China talks yielding some positive results on Iran. Some hope that China could exert pressure on Iran to reach a deal with the US, to end the war and lead to a resumption of energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz," ING analysts said.Meanwhile, Trump has sought to temper expectations, prioritizing trade negotiations and asserting that Washington has the Iran situation "under control."In its latest monthly report, the IEA slashed its 2026 demand outlook, now forecasting a global contraction of 420,000 barrels per day.OPEC's production plummeted by 1.73 mb/d in April to 18.98 million bbl/d, the group noted in its monthly oil market report.This output drop reflects the impact of the Hormuz blockade, with the data notably including the final month of UAE membership before its May 1 departure from the group, analysts noted.US crude inventories fell by 4.3 million barrels to 452.9 mmbbls in the week ended May 8, the Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report on Wednesday.

Oil & Energy41d ago

IEEFA Says Soaring Oil Prices Strain Southeast Asia's Fuel Subsidies

Southeast Asian economies are facing challenges to their fuel price subsidization efforts as elevated crude costs drain national stabilization funds, the Institute for Energy Economics and Financial Analysis said on Thursday.From Indonesia's new fuel rationing to Vietnam's emergency tax cuts, the report underscores an urgent need to pivot toward clean energy to protect budgets from persistent Middle East volatility, IEEFA noted.With regional subsidies reaching a staggering $353.1 billion in 2024, governments in Indonesia, Malaysia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines are now facing intensified fiscal strain as they attempt to insulate domestic markets from price volatility related to US-Iran conflict.The IEEFA report highlights that reliance on Middle Eastern energy imports has left these economies highly exposed to supply disruptions.Unlike their Northeast Asian neighbors, most Southeast Asian nations maintain thin strategic buffers, with many holding less than 30 days of supply.To manage the crisis, Indonesia and Malaysia have implemented strict purchase caps as of April 1, while Vietnam and Thailand have slashed environmental and excise taxes to zero.In the Philippines, where universal subsidies are not utilized, retail fuel prices have more than doubled since February, forcing the government to deploy targeted cash transfers to the transport and agricultural sectors.The current price shock has renewed scrutiny of these "politically sensitive" support mechanisms, it said.IEEFA notes that while governments are scrambling to contain retail prices via stabilization funds, widening deficits caused by these funds are becoming unsustainable.The report suggests that redirecting these massive resources toward clean energy infrastructure and energy-efficient technologies would not only improve fiscal sustainability but also strengthen long-term energy security across the region.

Showing 601-620 of 1155

Oil & Energy41d ago