EMEA crude futures diverged in after-hours trading on Tuesday as markets weighed conflicting signals from the US and Iran over peace talks in Doha, even as investors braced for the steepest quarterly decline in oil prices since 2020.
Brent crude futures retreated by 0.14% to $73.05 per barrel, while Murban crude futures advanced 1.22% to $70/bbl.
Saxo Bank strategists said crude prices traded within a relatively tight range near recent lows while remaining on track for their biggest quarterly decline since the pandemic.
On Monday, President Trump said Iran requested a meeting following an exchange of strikes over the weekend, adding that talks between the two countries would take place in Qatar's capital, Doha, on Tuesday.
However, Iranian officials denied that talks between Washington and Tehran were scheduled for the coming days, noting that an Iranian technical delegation's visit to Qatar this week was unrelated to US officials' visit to the country.
Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaril Baghaei said Iran has not yet entered the phase of final agreement negotiations and will not do so until the US begins implementing five key provisions of the MoU.
Iran's Deputy Foreign Minister Kazem Gharibabadi also said "no technical talks" with the US have been scheduled in Doha this week. Gharibabadi said holding technical meetings of the working groups has not been scheduled for this week.
On the supply side, Iran received sanction waivers from the US to sell its oil, sending more barrels to the market. Baghaei said the process of selling Iran's oil, petroleum and petrochemical products has been greatly facilitated.
Meanwhile, Tehran reiterated its determination to control maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, but flows showed signs of accelerating despite recent attacks in the strategic waterway.
Saxo Bank analysts said flows through Hormuz continue to accelerate, prompting Morgan Stanley to warn that the release of previously stranded barrels could create a near-term supply glut and put additional downward pressure on prices.
Ebrahim Azizi, head of Parliament's National Security and Foreign Policy Committee, reportedly said the Hormuz is an "inseparable" part of Iran's national sovereignty and its management is exclusively the responsibility of the country.
Kpler analysts said tanker markets are adjusting to the partial reopening of the Strait, with MEG VLCC rates easing as inbound ballasters return to the region, reducing tightness following a period of disruption.
Going forward, Soojin Kim, research analyst at MUFG, said that crude prices are likely to remain under downward pressure as Gulf supply recovers and the risk premium continues to fade, although uncertainty could keep volatility elevated.