Global refining margins are expected to remain supported through the second half of the year as refined product supply continues to lag the recovery in crude availability, Kpler strategists said in a note on Tuesday.
Sumit Ritolia, modeling refinery and oil markets at Kpler, said that though crude availability is projected to improve over the coming months, recovery in refined products is likely to lag meaningfully, tightening product balances and sustaining refining economics.
Kpler analysts said several structural constraints are delaying the rebound in product supply. Refinery restarts and ramp-ups in the Middle East following earlier disruptions are progressing, but the analysts said it will take time for units to reach stable operating rates and re-establish export flows.
The data analytics platform projected a full ramp-up in refined product exports to take about three to four months, with some assets potentially taking longer.
Refinery runs in Russia remain under pressure after repeated infrastructure damage and extended maintenance cycles. Kpler said crude processing fell to a multi-year low of about 4.1 million barrels per day in June and is projected to remain in the 4.4 to 5 million b/d range between July and September.
Repairs at facilities, including the Moscow refinery, are expected to take up to six months, limiting throughput through H2 2026 even if disruptions ease.
China is also unlikely to provide significant incremental supply in the near term, with refinery runs expected to stay subdued at least until August. Kpler said that crude imports remain near decade lows, while export quotas continue to cap outbound refined product flows, constraining utilization.
Seasonal maintenance is also projected to add further pressure in Q4, with refiners in the US, Europe and India likely to see heavier-than-normal turnaround activity after deferring or minimizing spring maintenance to maximize output earlier in 2026.
Meanwhile, inventories across key trading hubs, including the US, Singapore, Fujairah and the Amsterdam-Rotterdam-Antwerp region, remain relatively low, limiting buffers against supply shocks or demand spikes and increasing price sensitivity.
On the demand side of refining, global crude throughput is projected to average about 81.5 million b/d in Q3, rising to about 84.5 million b/d in Q4 as crude availability improves and maintenance activity eases.
However, Kpler said an upside scenario in which stronger margins drive higher utilization could add a further 700,000-900,000 b/d of global runs above baseline expectations.