Global liquefied natural gas markets are projected to remain tight through the upcoming winter before moving into structural oversupply from 2027 onwards, driven by rising supply capacity and a gradual easing of demand growth, Macquarie strategists said in a note on Friday.
Macquarie said low inventories in Europe and Asia, combined with lingering geopolitical risks and supply disruptions, are likely to support elevated prices in the near term, even as longer-dated forecasts point to softer conditions.
Analysts said they see a tight LNG balance through winter, even assuming Qatar achieves a relatively rapid production recovery, adding that the market has "limited margin for error" without significant weather-related demand relief.
Benchmark Asian spot LNG prices, reflected in the Japan-Korea Marker, have eased from earlier highs but remain sensitive to incremental shifts in demand and supply expectations.
Macquarie said after spiking to about $25 per million British thermal units earlier in the year, prices have recently hovered below $20, with August deliveries trading in the $15-16 range.
However, despite softer pricing, Asia's import behaviour suggests a gradual return to the spot market after sharp demand destruction earlier in the year.
Following supply disruptions that forced import cuts from March, the bank said buyers across major Asian economies cautiously re-entered the market in June to rebuild inventories ahead of the winter season.
China has led much of the recent recovery in imports, with flows strengthening in late June as arbitrage economics reopened. Japan and South Korea have also shown inventory-driven demand patterns, although procurement strategies remain highly sensitive to price volatility and competing fuel economics.
Macquarie said that the recent supply shock has left global inventories unusually thin heading into summer, even after some demand destruction and fuel switching across Asia.
Though flexible power systems have helped absorb part of the shock, remaining imbalances have kept the market structurally exposed to weather-related upside risks.
However, near-term supply risks remain elevated. Macquarie said the outlook highlights potential disruptions from weather and labour constraints in Australia, slower-than-expected ramp-ups at US export projects such as Golden Pass, and regulatory shifts in Europe.
The bank also said that while a recent incident in Qatar is not expected to materially affect exports, it further underscores operational vulnerabilities across key supply hubs.
On Qatar, Macquarie modeled a recovery to about 55-60% of pre-disruption levels by Q3, with operations approaching revised capacity by year-end. Though recent incidents highlight restart risks, Qatar has signalled a rapid return to full production levels.
On the demand side, the bank trimmed its 2026 global LNG demand forecast, citing weaker European imports and marginally softer Asian consumption.
China's LNG demand is expected to remain subdued at about 94 billion cubic metres, reflecting weaker industrial activity, slower growth in domestic gas production, and policy-driven shifts in transport fuels.