EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Surged on Friday Amid Lingering US-Iran Uncertainties
European natural gas futures surged on Friday, rebounding after three consecutive losing sessions, as uncertainties continued to linger around energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.Front-month Dutch TTF futures rose 1.58% to 77.555 euros ($89.06) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures were up 1.39% to 193.380 British pence ($2.59) per therm.On Thursday, US President Donald Trump told Axios that he was nearing a critical decision on the Iran war, saying he could "annihilate them" or choose not to, while adding that "anything could happen."Meanwhile, Iran's Revolutionary Guard Corps said that they had struck a Togo-flagged tanker while it attempted an "illegal passage" through the Strait of Hormuz on Thursday, adding to the uncertainties and supply constraints along the strategically crucial waterway, according to a report by Al Jazeera.Traffic along the strait, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, dipped to just 13 transits on Thursday, according to ShipFinder.According to Daniel Hynes, a senior commodity strategist at ANZ, global LNG markets have shifted from recovery to rationing, as disruptions continued to persist.Hynes cautioned that the ongoing conflict could remove as much as 28 million tonnes of Qatari LNG exports from the market during the Northern Hemisphere winter, which he said more than offsets any "expected supply growth elsewhere." As a result, "inventories are likely to decline, balances will tighten and prices remain elevated well into 2027."European gas inventories remained under pressure, at just 68.84% of capacity, compared to 80.97% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 84.9%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.