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EMEA Natural Gas Update: Futures Slide After Trump Hints at Potential De-Escalation in Iran Conflict

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European natural gas futures slid on Thursday, after US President Donald Trump hinted at a potential end to the conflict with Iran.

Front-month Dutch TTF futures dropped 1.43% to 76.915 euros ($88.36) per megawatt-hour, while British NBP futures dropped 0.77% to 191.960 British pence ($2.57) per therm.

While speaking to reporters on Wednesday, Trump said that the US was "toward the end of the war" with Iran, noting that Tehran wanted to make a deal.

Trump is also expected to hold a meeting with Middle Eastern leaders on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York next Tuesday, according to a report by Axios, citing three sources with direct knowledge of the matter.

Gas prices across Europe continued to hover near their four-year high, as the region heads into winter with its lowest gas inventories in over two decades, at 68.66% of capacity, compared to 80.83% during the corresponding period a year ago, according to Gas Infrastructure Europe.

Inventories were also significantly below the five-year average for this period, at 84.6%, according to the Swiss Federal Office of Energy.

The situation is particularly worse in Germany, with inventories at just 55.95% of capacity, compared to 75.62% during the same period last year.

This has since prompted Germany's Economy Minister, Katherina Reiche, to offer higher incentives for gas traders to allocate more volumes to the country, as reported by.

While forecasts for a mild winter had helped ease some of the concerns surrounding low gas inventories, recent reports are pointing to a potential Polar Vortex disruption around mid-winter, which could lead to colder outbreaks across northern and central Europe during January and February, according to Severe-Weather EU.

Meanwhile, traffic along the Strait of Hormuz, which accounted for one-fifth of global LNG flows, held steady with 16 transits on Wednesday, according to ShipFinder.

What else is happening in Oil & Energy?

Oil & Energy

US Oil Update: Crude Sinks After Saudi Routes Cargoes Via Oman to Bypass Pipeline Disruption

Crude futures retreated in after-hours trading on Wednesday as Saudi Arabia offered additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners via Oman, easing concerns about attacks that disrupted a key pipeline carrying oil to the Red Sea.Front-month West Texas Intermediate futures tumbled 3.4% to $102.05 per barrel, while Brent futures were down 3% to $105.51/bbl.The US Energy Information Administration said in its weekly report commercial crude oil inventories decreased by 600,000 barrels to 423.4 million barrels in the week ended Sept. 11, noting that crude inventories are 1% above the five-year average.The draw contrasted with a 7.1 million-barrel build reported by the American Petroleum Institute on Tuesday.Gelber & Associates strategists said October WTI trades at $102.89/bbl as expectations for a faster partial restart of East-West Pipeline encourage traders to reduce the disruption premium built up during the recent rally.On the supply front, the growing tightness in diesel markets, including in the US, China and Russia, has raised speculation about possible US export controls on crude oil and refined products.Tom Kloza, chief energy adviser at Gulf Oil, said diesel was showing a sharp divergence in performance, with the midmorning Wednesday gross refining margin for diesel in New York at $116.77/bbl.Kloza said the nationwide retail margin is 5.4 cents per gallon, about $2.27/bbl for fuel marketers and truck stops.The Trump administration is reportedly opposing a diesel export ban, saying the idea would do little to lower prices.ING strategists said that while a ban on refined products may offer some immediate price relief, it would weigh on refinery margins and eventually lead refiners to reduce run rates.Meanwhile, Saudi Arabia is offering additional crude cargoes to Asian refiners through ship-to-ship transfers off Oman's Sohar port, according to media reports.The arrangements allow Saudi crude to be transferred outside the Strait of Hormuz, providing an alternative route after damage to the East-West pipeline disrupted exports through Yanbu.US Energy Secretary Chris Wright also said the pipeline should be back in operation within days, although other estimates suggest repairs could take considerably longer.Kpler strategists said that the attack on Saudi Arabia's East-West Pipeline marks another escalation in a conflict the global oil market cannot absorb indefinitely.The analysts said that without the East-West Pipeline, Saudi crude exports could ultimately fall by about 3.5 - 4 million barrels per day, depending on the severity and duration of the disruption.The Federal Reserve approved its first interest rate hike since July 2023, while indicating that another will come later in the year. The Fed increased its key interest rate by a quarter percentage point, or 25 basis points.

Oil & Energy

Orlen Reportedly Secures 16 Crude Cargoes As Saudi Supplies Face Disruptions

Poland's Orlen secured 16 additional spot crude cargoes in recent days, expanding supply from multiple global origins while maintaining uninterrupted refinery operations, the company said Thursday, according to multiple media reports.Orlen has bought spot crude from Norway, the UK, Algeria, Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and North and South America since Sept. 11, with deliveries fully meeting refinery demand, the reports said.Orlen's increased spot crude buying may help cover a supply gap after Saudi Aramco, its biggest European client, canceled or deferred some term crude deliveries following damage to its East-West pipeline.Last month, Equinor (EQNR) announced a three-year agreement with Poland's Orlen to supply crude from the Johan Sverdrup field on the Norwegian continental shelf.Orlen usually takes in crude cargoes of about 700,000 barrels, and the 16 additional shipments could cost almost $1.5 billion at physical oil prices near $130 per barrel, according to a Reuters report citing Kpler data and Reuters calculations.Orlen did not immediately reply to' request for comment.

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Oil & Energy

Prolonged Refinery Disruptions May Keep Product Markets Tight Through 2027, Enverus Says

War-damaged refining capacity may remain offline longer than forward markets expect, keeping oil product markets and refining margins under pressure, Enverus Intelligence Research said in a Tuesday note.The conflicts in Iran and Ukraine have reduced available refining capacity and altered oil trade patterns, leaving product supplies tight as markets anticipate a quicker return to normal."The market is pricing a fairly rapid normalization in refining capacity and product balances through 2027, but the physical recovery may take much longer," said Al Salazar, director at EIR.EIR said forward prices treat the disruptions as temporary, but the damaged refining capacity could take significantly longer to recover than current market expectations indicate."Even if hostilities were to end soon, repair timelines suggest a meaningful portion of damaged capacity could remain offline well into next year," Salazar said.Refining capacity in the Middle East and Russia has taken a major hit, with about 7 million barrels per day affected. Routine turnarounds account for part of the roughly 11 million b/d currently offline.Tight product supplies have pushed refining economics higher, with the 3-2-1 crack near $67 per barrel and the distillate crack around $95/bbl, both among the highest levels in 16 years.EIR expects the recovery to stretch into late 2027, estimating that about half of the severely damaged refining capacity could still sit idle through Q4 2027.Repair work could extend for six to eight months after major refinery damage. Russian plants may face even longer delays if sanctions restrict access to equipment, parts and technical expertise.EIR expects refining margins to stay elevated through the second half of 2027 unless the Iran and Ukraine wars end early or weaker demand reduces pressure on product markets.Oil markets also face a storage challenge because backwardation makes it less attractive for traders to keep products in inventory, which could slow the stock rebuilding assumed in current prices."With inventories still tight and forward curves offering little incentive to rebuild stocks, we think refining margins could stay elevated for longer than the strip currently implies," Salazar said.