Strikes on Qatar and Iran's gas infrastructure are disrupting global LNG supply, putting 17% of Qatar's export capacity at risk and reshaping long-term energy security, Wood Mackenzie said in a Thursday note.
North Field and South Pars sprawl across about 9,000 square kilometers on the Qatar Arch, with the resource base containing 25% of global gas and supplying 10% of production.
Damage across the shared gas system has affected production, processing, liquefaction and export operations, creating wider consequences for LNG markets, purchasing patterns and future energy security.
Qatar lost about 4.5 billion cubic feet per day of processing capability after March strikes hit Pearl GTL and a June explosion disrupted the Barzan gas plant.
The outages involve two LNG trains representing 12.7 million metric tons per annum, one GTL train and Barzan's domestic lean-gas processing capacity.
Qatar is managing $5.8 billion in repairs and recovery timelines of up to 12 months while commissioning the world's largest LNG expansion program, said Alexandre Araman, Director, Middle East Upstream at Wood Mackenzie.
"That timing matters because 54 mmtpa of uncontracted Qatari volumes will reach the market by 2035, and buyers are making long-term security decisions right now," Araman said.
The Barzan outage cuts 35% of Qatar's 4 Bcf/d domestic gas supply, while Shell (SHEL) faces risk to about 10% of upstream cash flow from Pearl GTL.
Iran faces disruption at Assaluyeh, which processes about 30% of South Pars output, and at Phase 13 facilities in Kangan, affecting production across several field phases.
South Pars supplies 40% to 50% of Iran's fuel needs and about 80% of its electricity generation, while peak summer gas demand climbs above 11 Bcf/d.
Qatar shipped more than 80 million mt of LNG in 2025, with India taking 11.9 million mt, Taiwan receiving 8.2 million mt and Europe accounting for 11% of exports.
North Field East, North Field South and North Field West had planned to add 48 mmtpa of liquefaction capacity and lift plateau output to 28 Bcf/d by 2033.
North Field supports Qatar's downstream industries with condensates, natural gas liquids, methanol, ammonia and GTL products, while supplying one-third of global helium demand and sulfur to industry and agriculture.
"What this conflict has done is turn a well-understood geographical concentration risk into an operational reality across the entire value chain, from wellhead to export terminal," Araman said.
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