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Scotibank Previews Canada's Macroeconomic Data Out on Monday

Canadian manufacturing shipments are expected at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday to post strong growth of about 4.5% month-over-month seasonally adjusted based on advance guidance from Statistics Canada, said Scotiabank.However, the bank advises watching volumes as higher prices probably played a significant role in April.Also at 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, Scotiabank noted that Canadian wholesale sales are expected to post a small rise with similar arguments.Canada also refreshes housing starts for May at 8:15 a.m. ET on Monday that may pull back, added the bank.

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Treasury8d ago

BMO on The Day, Week Ahead in Canada

The Canada Mortgage and Housing Corporation (CMHC) will release housing starts for May at 8:15 a.m. ET on Monday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The bank looks for housing starts to step back 6.9% month over month in May to 260,000 annualized after surging 16.5% in April.At 8:30 a.m. ET on Monday, investors get the April reports on the manufacturing and wholesale sectors. Factory sales should rise 4.0% month over month, a little lower than the 4.6% advance reading, with new orders also up a strong 4.5%, stated BMO. The March figures were also solid, with sales up 3.0% and new bookings 4.7%.Wholesale trade should grow 0.5% month over month, this time a little faster than the 0.1% advance figure but slower than March's 1.9% move, according to the bank.Finally, on Monday at 8:30 a.m. ET, new consumer price index basket weights -- (based on 2025 spending patterns -- will be released.Investors get existing home sales for May on Tuesday and retail sales for April on Friday.The U.S. dollar (USD) is softer (BBDXY -0.25%), with the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) firmer (CAD per USD -0.14%) early Monday, added BMO.

$CAD$CXY$USD

Treasury8d ago

Quebec's 2025-26 Deficit Shrinks Again, Easing Funding Needs, Says National Bank

While not the final, audited tally, Quebec's preliminary report on 2025-26 delivers 'positive' news for Canada's second largest province, said National Bank of Canada.Before deposits to the Generations Fund, Quebec's 2025-26 budget deficit is now seen at $4.9 billion or 0.8% of gross domestic product, noted the bank.That's less than half of what was planned for back in Budget 2025 -- that original plan arriving when United States tariff anxiety was more or less at its zenith, stated National Bank.Some of the budgetary improvement versus the latest estimate captures a slower-than-expected pacing to cost-shared/subsidized infrastructure projects, pointed out the bank. So some of the fiscal 'improvement' may prove temporary.Still, the economy remains resilient, as evidenced by a firming in key own-source revenue streams, added National Bank. The balance sheet also looks better, with the vital net debt-to-GDP ratio ending 2025-26 on an improved trajectory.To the bank, S&P was perhaps hasty in downgrading the province (from AA- to A+) last April, when a 'negative' outlook might have sufficed.

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Treasury8d ago

Canada's Households Continue to Be in A Relatively Healthy Position Despite Headwinds, Says BMO

Canada's household debt-to-income ratio rose 0.9 percentage point (ppt) to a seasonally adjusted 179.6% in Q1 as growth in debt outpaced disposable incomes, said Bank of Montreal (BMO) after Friday's data.The ratio has been rising since the end of 2024, although it remains roughly 10 ppts below the all-time high set in 2022, noted the bank. The seasonal adjustment also played a role this quarter as the unadjusted ratio fell 0.4 ppt to 174.9%.The household debt service ratio -- interest and principal as a share of disposable income -- ticked up to 14.75% but remains within its range of the past two years. While this ratio will continue to face some upside pressure over the next year amid mortgage rate resets, it has performed better than expected thanks to a combination of past rate cuts and income growth, stated BMO.That has allowed households to support economic growth amid elevated uncertainty.On the flip side, household net worth rose to 1005.1% of disposable income, driven by strong equity gains, while higher real estate values also contributed, added the bank. The share of owners' equity in real estate ticked up to 72.8%, although it has been on a downward trend amid a prolonged correction in the housing market.General government debt -- including all levels of government -- continued to march higher, given hefty stimulus plans, pointed out BMO. Gross government debt stepped up to 131.9% of gross domestic product, its highest in four years, while net debt rose to 21.2% of GDP.Canadian households continue to be in a relatively healthy position in the face of significant economic shocks, according to the bank.

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Treasury8d ago

Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Monday highlighted:Markets: Brent drops on United States-Iran agreement, trades just above US$83/barrel. U.S. Treasuries rally, led by the front-end. Equity futures rally, Nikkei is up almost 5%. The US dollar (USD) drops versus major currencies, while the euro (EUR) rises above $1.16.U.S. limits international access to the latest Anthropic models. Federal judge blocks President Donald Trump's $1.8 billion payout fund.Iran/U.S. reached an agreement to reopen the Strait of Hormuz. They plan to formally sign the agreement on Friday in Switzerland and agree to a 60-day period to negotiate the future of Iran's nuclear program. No text has been released yet.Iran: The United Kingdom, France, Germany and Italy say they would lift sanctions if Iran curbs its nuclear program.G7: President Trump to hold bilateral talks with French President Emmanuel Macron on Monday, bilateral meetings also scheduled with Qatar and the UAE. Japan's Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi will propose a joint rare-earth stockpile (Yomiuri).==EUROPE:ECB: Governing Council member Joachim Nagel says prices are likely to stay elevated even if the Iran war ends soon. He adds that the European Central Bank had to react and did it calmly.Italy's far-right formally founds new party Futuro Nazionale.Ukraine: The International Monetary Fund reaches staff-level agreement to release around US$690 million after review.Switzerland: Voters reject proposal to cap population at 10 million.Ratings: Fitch affirms ESM at AAA/stable, affirms EFSF at A+. Scope completes monitoring review of ESM/EFSF with no rating changes.

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Treasury8d ago

April's Manufacturing, Wholesale and Retail Data to Point to Canada's Growth Rebound, Says RBC

April's manufacturing and wholesale reports on Monday, and retail sales on Friday, should support the Bank of Canada's and RBC's outlook that Canada's growth will resume in Q2 after Q1's contraction, said the bank.Statistics Canada's advanced estimate is a 4.6% month-over-month rise in manufacturing sales and a 0.6% month-over-month increase in retail sales. Part of this reflects higher oil prices, noted the bank.However, manufacturing sales volume would still be up nearly 3% after accounting for that, and there's little evidence so far that high gasoline prices are crowding out retail spending in other areas, stated RBC.Wholesale sales -- excluding oil -- likely held onto strength in April after a larger 1.9% month-over-month nominal increase, or 1.7% real, in March.Home resales in May should also point to further stabilization in housing markets, with some of the least affordable and most depressed larger cities -- like Toronto -- showing green shoots in early reports, pointed out the bank.Overall, data should be broadly consistent with the preliminary estimate that real Canadian gross domestic product rose 0.4% month-over-month in April, according to RBC. However, these advance monthly production estimates have been highly volatile, prone to revisions and are less reliable than usual as a gauge for quarterly GDP growth.Importantly, headline GDP and employment data also remain heavily influenced by large population swings, added the bank. Quarterly demographics estimates on Wednesday are expected to show a third consecutive decline in population in Q1 due to a rapidly shrinking pool of non-permanent residents.That should leave recent softer GDP numbers still looking better on a per-capita basis.

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Treasury8d ago

SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Monday economic news summary pointed out:Brent -4.7% to US$83.2/barrel after the United States/Iran agree on a Memorandum of Understanding, permanent cessation of military operations, re-opening of the Strait of Hormuz after signing of the agreement this Friday, lifting of the naval blockade. The interim deal would launch 60 days of negotiation on Iran's nuclear program. The US dollar (USD) offered, 10-year German Bund dips to 2.95%, 2s/10s bull steepens to 38.5bps. 10-year U.S. Treasury falls to 4.43%.SocGen Brent forecast US$80/barrel by end-2026 based on the end of June re-opening, oil flows normalize by January 2027. Technical support US$82/81, US$78 and US$75. SocGen economics: central banks remain on guard rather than returning to easing. U.S. growth forecast at 2.3% and inflation 4.0% in 2026, eurozone at 0.9% and 3.0%, China at 4.6% and 1.2%.CFTC positioning: Euro (EUR) net longs trimmed to 1.6% of OI, yen (JPY) shorts jumped to 28.9%, sterling (GBP) shorts raised to 22.0%, Australian dollar (AUD) longs cut to 5.8%, Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) shorts up to 31.3%, Mexican peso (MXN) longs climbed to 29.8%, Nymex longs trimmed to 6.5%.Week ahead: Federal Reserve forecast on hold and drop neutral bias. Bank of Japan forecast +25bps. Bank of England, Reserve Bank of Australia, Norway's Norges Bank, Switzerland's SNB, Sweden's Riksbank forecast on hold. U.S. retail sales. Eurozone final consumer price index, Germany ZEW survey. United Kingdom CPI, retail sales, employment, Makerfield by-election. Brazil's central bank forecast -25bps, Czech and Chile on hold. Japan and South Africa CPI.Nikkei +5.0%, EUR 10-year IRS -3.5bps at 3.00%, Gold +2.1% at US$4,306/oz.

$AUD$CAD$CXY$EUR$GBP$JPY$MXN$USD

Treasury11d ago

US Treasury Closing Levels

3:00 Friday vs 3:00 Thursday2yr 99-26 vs 99-27; 4.085% vs 4.068%5yr 99-19 vs 99-22; 4.213% vs 4.188%10yr 99-03 vs 99-09+; 4.487% vs 4.461%30yr 100-12 vs 100-24+; 4.974% vs 4.949%2/10 39.965 bps vs 39.083 bps5/30 75.998 bps vs 75.966 bps

Treasury11d ago

Morguard Announces $250 Million Debenture Offer and Early Redemption of Series H Senior Unsecured Debentures

Morguard (MRC.TO) agreed to issue $250 million aggregate principal amount of series J senior unsecured debentures, it said after markets closed on Thursday.The debentures will bear interest at a rate of 4.307% per year and will mature on June 18, 2029.Morningstar DBRS assigned a provisional rating of "BBB (low)" with a Stable trend.The company also said that it will redeem all of its outstanding 9.5% Series H senior unsecured debentures due Sept. 26, 2026 on June 22, 2026.The net proceeds of the offering will be used towards the early redemption of the 2023 debentures and for general corporate purposes, it added."The redemption price will be paid in cash and is approximately $1,014.753 per $1,000 principal amount of 2023 Debentures, together with accrued and unpaid interest on the 2023 Debentures up to, but excluding, the Redemption Date," said the company.The company's shares were last seen up $1.00 at $122.00 on the Toronto Stock Exchange.Price: $122.00, Change: $+1.00, Percent Change: +0.83%

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Treasury11d ago

Japan Gold Announces US$1 Million Convertible Debenture Financing; Shares up 5.8%

Japan Gold (JG.V) on Friday said it will raise US$1 million from a private placement of unsecured convertible debenture for gross proceeds of US$1 million to Equinox Partners Investment Management, a strategic investor and major shareholder of the company.The three-year debenture bears an interest rate of 10% per year, accruing daily but payable in cash only at the maturity date, on the occurrence of an event of default or upon an early redemption, stated the company.The company will have the right, at its option, to make an early redemption in cash of all or any part of the principal amount together with payment of any accrued but unpaid interest, said the company."In addition, the company will have the right, at its election, to satisfy its obligation to pay cash to the debenture holder through the delivery of common shares of the company in lieu of cash, at a price per share which equals the greater of: (i) the most recent market price of the shares on the TSX Venture Exchange on the date that the accrued interest becomes payable; (ii) $0.11; and (iii) a price per security or conversion price of debt securities in a future financing event," stated the company.The net proceeds will be used for general working capital purposes, said the company.Equinox holds a 29.32% stake in Japan Gold.The company's shares were last seen up C$0.005 to C$0.09 on the TSX Venture Exchange.

$JG.V

Treasury11d ago

Canadians Are Cooling on Carney's Government, Finds Survey

The summer is a pivotal season for Prime Minister Mark Carney as the United States-Canada trade relationship enters a forced inflexion point with the scheduled joint review of the CUSMA agreement, which U.S. President Donald Trump has once again threatened to blow up, said Angus Reid Institute.Prime Minister Carney enters this period as the "grace benefitted" to his renewed Liberal government from Canadians appears to be waning, noted Angus Reid.New data released on Friday from non-profit Angus Reid finds approval of Carney dipping to 55%, the third straight decline measured by ARI data since the peak of Carney's popularity in February, when it was at 63%.The decline comes as persistent domestic concerns -- cost of living (61% select it as a top issue), health care (39%) and housing affordability (25%) -- dominate among Canadians' priorities, which contrasts with some of the main recent focal points of Carney's government, including Artificial Intelligence strategy and national unity, added Angus Reid.Some 55% of Canadians say they approve of the performance of the prime minister and three-in-ten (31%) believe the country is on the right track. This suggests that although there are many who like Carney and his policies, he is yet to convince most in Canada that he is steering it in the right direction, according to Angus Reid.

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Treasury11d ago

Canada's Household Debt Service Burden Edges Higher in Q1 as Household Credit Market Debt Outpaces Income

The seasonally adjusted stock of household credit market debt in Canada reached $3.25 trillion in Q1, said the country's statistical agency on Friday.At the same time, the ratio of household credit market debt as a proportion of household disposable income increased for the sixth consecutive quarter, climbing by 0.9 percentage point to 179.6% in Q1, noted Statistics Canada in a statement.In other words, there was roughly $1.80 in credit market debt for every dollar of household disposable income, pointed out Statistics Canada.The household debt service ratio -- measured as total obligated payments of principal and interest on credit market debt as a proportion of household disposable income -- rose after two consecutive quarterly declines, added StatsCan.The ratio finished Q1 at 14.75%, up from 14.68% in Q4 2025, as total debt payments rose 1.1% to outpace income. At the same time, mortgage interest payments increased 0.9% in Q1, following decreases in Q3 and Q4 2025.

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Treasury11d ago

Brief: Canada's Household Credit Market Debt in Q1 Outpaces Income for Sixth Straight Quarter

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Treasury11d ago

BMO on The Day Ahead in Canada

Canada will release the Q1 National Balance Sheet Accounts at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).The bank noted that the accounts could show the household debt-to-income ratio declining, although a positive seasonal adjustment could offset the dip. The adjusted ratio has been rising for over a year, but remains more than 10 percentage points below the all-time high reached in 2022.The Bank of Canada keeps an eye on elevated debt levels for signs of household vulnerability amid an otherwise lacklustre economic backdrop, pointed out BMO.Also at 8:30 a.m. ET on Friday, new motor vehicle sales are expected to come in 5% below year-ago levels in April, stated the bank.The US dollar (USD) index is little changed, while the Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) is a bit weaker early Friday at $1.398 (71.5 cents US), according to BMO.

$CAD$CXY$USD

Treasury11d ago

World Bank Expects Global Growth to Slow to 2.5% in 2026

The World Bank expects global growth to slow to 2.5% in 2026, its lowest rate since the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and down from 2.9% a year earlier, hurt by the conflict in the Middle East, according to its latest Global Economic Prospects report.Higher energy prices, steeper inflation, and increased borrowing costs will all likely contribute to slower growth, according to the report.The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has severely disrupted energy markets and driven up fertilizer prices, leading to higher food prices and driving up global inflation, the World Bank said.Global growth is expected to rise to 2.8% in 2027, but will remain 0.4 percentage points below the average during the 2010s, the report stated.In 2026, the World Bank is projecting growth of 4.2% in East Asia and the Pacific, 2.1% in Europe and Central Asia, 2.2% in Latin America and the Caribbean, 1.6% in the Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan, 6.3% in South Asia, and 4% in Sub-Saharan Africa.The World Bank said it is ready to provide up to $100 billion for affected countries over 15 months if the conflict and its economic fallout persist.

Treasury11d ago

Canada's Governments Account for Most Net Supply of Long-Term Debt, Says National Bank

Once a quarter, as part of the broader set of national accounts, Statistics Canada serves up a fresh batch of 'Securities Statistics' data, said National Bank of Canada.This particular release often goes under the radar, as was the case with the latest data drop earlier this week, related to Q1, noted the bank.There's some" important stuff" in the data, stated National Bank.Net bond issuance by all Canadian entities remains "lofty" in absolute, relative and seasonally adjusted terms, pointed out the bank. Canada's marginal borrowing is coming mainly from the government side, particularly when isolating for Canadian dollar (CAD or loonie) issuance.The domestic bond market is increasingly government-centric, with governments accounting for a record share of outstandings, it added. Within government, debt is accumulating more quickly at the federal level.Provincial funding needs are "non-trivial." However, provinces have steered a record amount of net supply to international markets, taking advantage of strong international investor demand.That's driven the CAD share of outstanding provincial bonds lower, according to National Bank. The current balance of CAD supply -- provincial versus federal -- is consistent with tight credit spreads.The bank's bond supply outlook for 2027 would remain technically supportive for provincial government spreads, all else equal.

$CAD$CXY

Treasury11d ago

Commerzbank on Overnight News

Commerzbank in its "European Sunrise" note of Friday highlighted:Markets: United States Treasuries and equities jump, Brent drops below US$90/barrel after President Donald Trump cancels attacks on Iran. USTs consolidate overnight, equities remain supported with Nikkei up over 3%. The US dollar (USD) falls, then rangebound in Asia.Iran war: President Trump insists deal is close after cancelling "very hard" strikes for Thursday night vowed hours before, deal could be signed over the weekend. Fars reports the likelihood of Tehran approval is "relatively high," ISNA reports Iran hasn't yet reached a final conclusion. Axios affirms the Memorandum of Understanding would extend the ceasefire for 60 days, including in Lebanon, includes a framework for Iran's uranium, and would incorporate immediate Strait of Hormuz reopening without tolls.SpaceX raises US$75 billion. IPO price of US$135 per share values the firm at $1.77 trillion.==EUROPE:ECB sources: European Central Bank Governing Council (GC) members aren't ruling out a second hike as soon as July (Bloomberg). Policymakers see rates on hold in July as the more likely scenario, while oil above US$100/barrel could trigger hike, and note that projections embed two more rate hikes (Reuters).ECB is "ready to respond again," the next meeting is in July, GC member Joachim Nagel says. GC member Primoz Dolenc thinks hike enables the ECB to "do the thinking of the broader environment in the next meetings." The International Monetary Fund says the ECB may need to keep hiking. Italy's Deputy Prime Minister Antonio Tajani says rate hike "doesn't help anyone."EU to discuss cutting long-term budget proposal by more than 2%.

$CXY$USD

Treasury11d ago

BMO Notes Implications of the Expected Negative Birth Rate in Canada

In Canada, demographic attention has been rightly focused on the massive influx and then capping of non-permanent residents, said Bank of Montreal (BMO).However, a collapse in natural population growth has been unfolding in the background, noted the bank.Net births are expected to turn negative for the first time ever in 2028, stated BMO. That is, more Canadians will begin to pass away than will be replaced with new babies.According to the bank, there are many causes and many longer-term implications. Among the latter:Slower labor force and potential economic growth.Lower break-even job growth rates.A role for Artificial Intelligence to drive more productivity.Mounting stress on social security funding.An evolving housing demand curve.

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Treasury11d ago

SocGen's Overnight Economic News Summary

Societe Generale in its early Friday economic news summary pointed out:Brent down 2% at US$88.5/barrel after President Trump cancels planned strikes on Iran, signals potential deal as soon as the weekend. Iran pushes back, says no final agreement yet and cites new United States demands and shifting positions. South Korea's Kospi (+8.0%) leads Asia risk rally. 10-year U.S. Treasury yield steady at 4.46% after falling 9bps on Thursday.The United Kingdom's April gross domestic product contracts 0.1% month over month, grows 0.7% three-month/over/three-month in line. Services down 0.2% month over month, manufacturing grows 0.4%, construction 0.1%. April trade deficit narrows less than expected to 8.43 billion pounds from 9.65 billion pounds, exports +1.1%, imports -0.4%.Day ahead: European Central Bank speakers Kocher, Nagel, Rehn. Preliminary University of Michigan sentiment. The consumer price index for Brazil and India.Nikkei +3.8%, EUR 10-year IRS -6bps at 3.02%, Gold down 0.7% at US$4,180/oz.

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Treasury11d ago

US 10-Yr Treasury Yield Drops 2 basis Points to 4.45%, 2-Yr Rate Declines 2.3 Basis Points to 4.05% Early Friday

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