Market Chatter: Oil Markets Likely to Pivot Higher as Reserves Dwindle With Hormuz Strait Closed
Crude oil markets may be on the verge of pivoting towards a period of sustained higher prices with the Strait of Hormuz now closed for more than two months, some of America's biggest oil companies are warning, Bloomberg reported on Friday.Global stockpiles, strategic reserves and volumes stored on vessels before Feb. 28 -- the start of Iran war -- are now steadily being used up, according to Exxon Mobil (XOM), Chevron (CVX) and ConocoPhillips (COP).These supplies have been providing a buffer against higher prices in the last two months but are now running low, said Chevron Chief Financial Officer Eimear Bonner in an interview on Friday with Bloomberg TV."A lot of the inventory and spare capacity has been depleted already," Bonner said. "There's very little of the buffer left."Bloomberg notes that at just above $100 per barrel, oil prices are far from record levels, even with a key through-route for about a fifth of the world's oil and gas closed for now more than two months.When current reserves run out, prices are likely to reflect the increased imbalance between supply and demand quite quickly, said Exxon CEO Darren Woods on a call with analysts on Friday, Bloomberg reported."It's obvious to most that if you look at the unprecedented disruption and the world's supply of oil and natural gas, the market hasn't seen the full impact of that yet," he said. "There's more to come if the strait remains closed."ConocoPhillips Chief Financial Officer Andy O'Brien describes the increases in oil prices since the global energy crisis began as merely a "grace period" because ships that crossed the Strait of Hormuz took weeks more to deliver their cargoes, buffering the supply impact.Crude markets have been in a "grace period" since late February until now because ships loaded before the war take weeks to complete their journeys and so have still been delivering cargoes, O'Brien said on a call with analysts Thursday."Now, all of those have reached their destination," he said. "The impacts of the lost supply is going to start to become more apparent," he said, predicting that "critical shortages" would appear in import-dependent countries by June or July.The Bloomberg article made reference to a JPMorgan Chase (JPM) note by analyst Natasha Kaneva which said that developed countries would fall to their lowest ever by September if the strait remains closed and force consumption lower.has contacted the three oil companies to confirm the comments.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
