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Nigeria Eyes Turn-Around in Deepwater Oil, Fiscal Incentives Generate Appetite

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Nigeria is set for a major turnaround in deepwater crude oil extraction, Wood Mackenzie said in an article on Thursday, in which its analysts shared their updated views on the country's prospects after attending the Nigeria Oil and Gas conference in Abuja last week.

Nigeria, Africa's largest liquids producer, has huge deepwater potential, but it has gone more than a decade without major investment until a final investment decision for Bonga North in 2024. Deepwater liquids output has fallen below 500,000 barrels per day from a 800,000-bbl/d peak in 2016.

That is likely to change now. Nigeria's government is now aiming for 3 million bbl/d output and 12 billion cubic feet per day of natural gas by 2030 and to reverse decline through regulatory reform and fiscal incentives.

Six deepwater legacy contracts between state-run Nigerian National Petroleum and international oil companies were extended in 2022, while new incentives were introduced in 2024, including tax credits for fields that reach final investment decision before 2029.

Oil companies have taken note and are pursuing deepwater development plans. Four large greenfield projects could alone produce more than 2 billion barrels of oil equivalent, Wood Mackenzie said.

Shell (SHEL), ExxonMobil (XOM), Eni (E) and TotalEnergies (TTE) have raised the priority of Nigerian deepwater projects that previously were unappealing before the introduction of incentives.

Evidence of this is Shell's 2024 FID on Bonga North, 20 years after it was discovered, and ExxonMobil's approval last week of the $1 billion Usan Infill Project as part of a pledge to invest $10 billion to develop deepwater assets in Nigeria.

TotalEnergies recently said it would acquire Conoil's 50% stake in the Egina South discovery while Shell bought 10% of TotalEnergies' stake in OML 118 to boost its Bonga Southwest-Aparo project.

WoodMackenzie said Nigeria has a strong opportunity to reverse decline in deepwater output, with projects collectively adding a potential 700,000 barrels of liquids and 950 billion cubic feet per day of gas.

Risks are mainly centered around project execution while others include partner alignment, competition for capital, unitization, regulatory approvals, gas sales agreements and supply chain constraints.

On the other hand there is some spare capacity at present on existing floating production and storage, but also some "creaky" infrastructure.

The gauge of whether Nigeria's deepwater ambitions will be realized, can be gauged to a degree by whether Bonga Southwest-Aparo, Zabazaba and Preowei reach FID within 18 months.

"If these projects get over the line, Nigeria's deepwater resurgence will prove it has real bite," the article concluded.

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