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Commodities

Repsol Refining Margins Close to Q4 2025 Levels Despite Volatile Market, RBC Says

Spanish oil and gas producer Repsol has shown modest signs of downstream strength, averaging a refining indicator of $10.90 per barrel, close to the Q4 2025 level, RBC said in a research note on Friday, with the figure inflated by strong March performance.So far in April, refining margins have been more volatile, but averaged a higher $11.50/bbl, RBC said, net of all variable costs including transport, a level the analysts said was well below margins in the market overall.This may reflect physical oil spreads as well as timing between the pricing of the crude and the final product, RBC said, noting it had seen several "messy" Q1 updates from US refiners, notably Exxon Mobil (XOM), in the last week or so.The analysts foresee refining margins structurally higher than mid-cycle levels through 2026 and 2027 due to tightness in distillate inventories and Repsol looks poised to benefit as a result.Upstream production volumes looked "disappointing" versus RBC estimates though they were influenced by a number of one-off events.RBC's revised estimates for Q1 upstream earnings were cut to 334 million euros ($390.4 million) from 339 million euros and industrial earnings were revised to 530 million euros from 606 million.Q1 adjusted net income is now expected to be 985 million euros, down from 1.09 billion euros, placing RBC's estimate 2% below consensus for the quarter.RBC also revised its own Commodity Price Deck which now foresees higher prices for this year and next and an $80/barrel long term Brent outlook, up from $70 previously.The Iran conflict is likely to lead to smaller inventories which are supportive of refining margins, the analysts said and Repsol's share price has generally tended to trade in alignment with those margins, the analysts said.RBC said it expects refining margins to be strong in 2026 and it forecasts a free cash flow yield for Repsol of 11% in 2027.RBC expects Repsol to defer the IPO it has been planning for H2 for its upstream segment until there is more robust confirmation that oil markets will remain strong in the medium term.A longer war in the Middle East raises the risk of a global recession and that in turn represents a demand-side risk for Repsol, RBC said.RBC raised its price target to 32 euros up from 29 euros previously and maintained a sector outperform rating on the company.

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Mixed Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were mixed late Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index fractionally higher and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) decreasing 0.9%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was shedding 0.5%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was down 0.4%.In sector news, oil prices stabilized at under $100 a barrel on Friday ahead of US-Iran talks in Pakistan as markets sought clarity on whether this weekend's huddle in Islamabad could lead to a long-term peace deal. Earlier in the week, the US and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire, pausing a war that had spread across the Middle East and curtailed shipments through the crucial Strait of Hormuz. Oil prices on Wednesday posted their sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 after the ceasefire announcement.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil fell 2.3% to $95.58 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract shed 1.7% to $94.39 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 1.1% to $2.64 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, ConocoPhillips (COP) has sent a team to Venezuela to evaluate the prospects of oil drilling in the country, the company said in an emailed statement to. ConocoPhillips shares were down 1.2%.Shell (SHEL) confirmed in an email toon Friday that it is in talks with Venezuela to produce natural gas at the Loran-Manatee offshore field, which crosses the border of Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The company expects to produce gas from Manatee in 2027 but has yet to take a final investment decision on the Loran field, according to a spokesperson. Shell shares were up 1.3%.The Port of Antwerp in Belgium, which is home to European refineries operated by Exxon Mobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE), was blocked following an oil spill during a ship refueling operation, preventing large vessels from entering or leaving the port, the port authority said Friday. Exxon shares shed 0.8%, and TotalEnergies was up 2.9%.EQT (EQT) and Glencore committed to acquiring an extra 1 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas annually from Commonwealth LNG through 20-year agreements, Reuters reported, citing a regulatory document. EQT shares were down 1.4%.

$COP$EQT$SHEL$TTE$XOM
Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Lower Friday Afternoon

Energy stocks declined Friday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index fractionally lower and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) decreasing 0.8%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was shedding 0.7%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index was down 0.1%.In sector news, President Donald Trump said Friday in a phone interview with the New York Post that US warships are being restocked with ammunition in order to resume strikes should peace talks with Iran falter this weekend.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil was rising 0.6% to $98.39 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract was advancing 0.7% to $96.70 a barrel. Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 0.8% to $2.65 per 1 million BTU.In corporate news, Shell (SHEL) confirmed in an email toon Friday that it is in talks with Venezuela to produce natural gas at the Loran-Manatee offshore field, which crosses the border of Venezuela and Trinidad and Tobago. The company expects to produce gas from Manatee in 2027 but has yet to take a final investment decision on the Loran field, according to a spokesperson. Shell shares were up 0.8%.The Port of Antwerp in Belgium, which is home to European refineries operated by Exxon Mobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE), was blocked following an oil spill during a ship refueling operation, preventing large vessels from entering or leaving the port, the port authority said Friday. Exxon shares fell 1.6%, and TotalEnergies was up 1.8%.EQT (EQT) and Glencore committed to acquiring an extra 1 million metric tons of liquefied natural gas annually from Commonwealth LNG through 20-year agreements, Reuters reported, citing a regulatory document. EQT shares were down 1.1%.

$EQT$SHEL$TTE$XOM
Commodities

Antwerp Port Oil Spill Shuts Key Dock, Disrupts Shipping Operations

An oil spill at Antwerp's Deurganckdock has disrupted operations, closing key terminals and halting traffic, with cleanup ongoing, Port of Antwerp-Bruges said Friday.The spill began during a bunkering operation, with the source quickly contained, though oil spread overnight into the Scheldt, impacting vessels and disrupting port operations.Located along the Scheldt river, the Deurganck Dock remains closed even as broader river traffic resumes, the port authority said.Authorities are focusing on clearing contamination before restoring full access to the dock and surrounding terminals, according to the Port of Antwerp.Specialized vessels are actively removing oil across affected zones, including the Noordzee and Europaterminal areas, as authorities work to limit delays and safely restart operations at critical infrastructure, the port authority added.Authorities are also monitoring riverbanks and nearby natural habitats alongside Civil Protection and regional agencies, focusing on limiting environmental damage and cleaning sensitive zones impacted by the spill, it added.Earlier, shipping traffic was halted between key points on the Scheldt, while major locks were shut due to oil presence, leaving the port temporarily inaccessible and impacting inland and seagoing vessels, according to the port authority.One of Europe's largest port hubs, Antwerp hosts major refineries run by Exxon Mobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE).has separately reached out to Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies for any comments.Price: $152.95, Change: $-2.09, Percent Change: -1.35%

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Equities

Antwerp Port in Belgium Blocked by Oil Spill Near Exxon Mobil, TotalEnergies Refineries

Port of Antwerp in Belgium, which is home to European refineries operated by Exxon Mobil (XOM) and TotalEnergies (TTE), was blocked following an oil spill during a ship refueling operation, preventing large vessels from entering or leaving the port, the port authority said Friday.Exxon Mobil said its refinery operations were not impacted, with a nearby canal still available to move oil products by barge, according to Bloomberg.Exxon Mobil and TotalEnergies did not immediately respond to' request for comment.

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Equities

TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on Exxon Mobil to $172 From $175, Maintains Buy Rating

Exxon Mobil (XOM) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $163.04, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)

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Sectors

Sector Update: Energy Stocks Decline Late Afternoon

Energy stocks were lower late Thursday afternoon, with the NYSE Energy Sector Index decreasing 0.5% and the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF (XLE) falling 1%.The Philadelphia Oil Service Sector Index was up 0.2%, and the Dow Jones US Utilities Index climbed 1%.In sector news, oil prices increased on Thursday as shipment activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained restricted despite a two-week ceasefire between Washington and Iran. The rebound in oil prices follows the sharpest one-day pullback since 2020 in the previous session as the US and Iran agreed to temporarily halt hostilities that had gripped the Middle East.Front-month West Texas Intermediate crude oil rose 5% to $99.24 a barrel, and the global benchmark Brent crude contract was advancing 2.5% to $97.12 a barrel.Henry Hub natural gas futures fell 1.5% to $2.68 per 1 million BTU.US natural gas stocks rose by 50 billion cubic feet in the week ended April 3, larger than the 48 billion increase expected in a survey compiled by Bloomberg as of 7:35 am ET and following a revised increase of 32 billion cubic feet in the previous week.In corporate news, Kosmos Energy (KOS) shares dropped 8.1% after Goldman Sachs downgraded the company's stock to sell from neutral, with a $2.25 price target.Chevron (CVX) expects higher commodity prices driven by the Middle East conflict to boost Q1 earnings in its upstream segment by up to $2.2 billion, though timing impacts could weigh on its bottom line. Its shares were down 1.2%.Exxon Mobil (XOM) is planning an overhaul in the spring and another at the end of the year at its Beaumont refinery in Texas, Reuters reported late Wednesday. Exxon shares shed 0.8%.Energy Vault (NRGV) shares gained 3% after it said Thursday it has agreed to buy a pipeline of battery energy storage system, or BESS, projects in Japan from a local company.

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US Markets

Chevron Flags Tailwind to Quarterly Upstream Earnings From Higher Commodity Prices

Chevron (CVX) expects higher commodity prices driven by the Middle East conflict to boost first-quarter earnings in its upstream segment by up to $2.2 billion, though timing impacts could weigh on the oil giant's bottom line.Elevated oil prices are projected to benefit upstream segment earnings by $1.6 billion to $2.2 billion in the March quarter, compared with the previous three-month period, the company said in a regulatory filing Thursday.Crude prices resumed their upward trend Thursday amid uncertainty over the two-week ceasefire deal between the US and Iran announced Tuesday. The war started at the end of February, sending energy prices soaring amid the closure of the crucial Strait of Hormuz.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was 4.5% higher intraday at $98.67 a barrel, while Brent increased 1.7% to $96.37, well above pre-war levels.Chevron said that timing effects linked to hedging and accounting in a rising commodity price environment are "generally negative," potentially impacting first-quarter earnings and cash flow from operations, excluding working capital, by roughly $2.7 billion to $3.7 billion."The majority of these effects are in the downstream segment and are expected to unwind in future periods," the company said in the filing.Chevron shares were down 1.2% intraday, reducing its year-to-date gain to about 26%.The company expects downstream earnings to include a charge of about $350 million to $400 million tied to a litigation reserve related to ceased operations, according to the filing.First-quarter upstream oil-equivalent production is forecast to be in a range of 3.8 million barrels per day to 3.9 million barrels, mainly reflecting downtime at Kazakhstan's Tengizchevroil project and reduced production in the Middle East, Chevron said.The company expects to report first-quarter results by May 1.On Wednesday, larger rival Exxon Mobil (XOM) flagged that production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict could lower its global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter. The company also said it expected the surge in energy prices to boost upstream earnings.Price: $191.94, Change: $-0.95, Percent Change: -0.49%

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US Markets

Equities Mark Best Finish in At Least 4 Weeks Following US-Iran Truce

Equities on Wall Street rallied Wednesday, driving key indexes to their highest close in at least four weeks, as oil prices slid following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.The Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.9% to 47,909.9, the highest close since March 5, while the Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.8% to 22,635, its best finish since March 11.The S&P 500 advanced 2.5% to 6,782.8, marking the highest closing level since March 9.Barring energy's 3.7% decline, all sectors ended in the green, led by industrials' 3.8% advance.West Texas Intermediate crude oil was last down nearly 15% at $96.44 a barrel, while Brent futures tumbled about 12% to $96.40 -- though both benchmarks remained well above pre-conflict levels.US President Donald Trump, who had set an 8 pm ET, Tuesday, deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iran for two weeks upon Pakistan's request. Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the key trading route, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.However, reports about ceasefire violations signified the possible fragile nature of the pact.Iran's parliamentary speaker, Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, accused the US of violating the ceasefire agreement.The White House said Iran assured that ships are transiting the Strait of Hormuz, despite reports that Tehran had again closed the waterway because of Israel's attacks on Lebanon, CNN reported.Separately, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reportedly said they were targeted with Iranian drones and missiles."The headlines may calm down first, but the real reset depends on what happens in the days ahead," Charu Chanana, chief investment strategist at Saxo Bank, said in a report.US Treasury yields were down, with the 10-year rate falling 5 basis points at 4.3% and the two-year rate dropping 4.1 basis points at 3.79%.Minutes from the Federal Reserve's March meeting showed that participants emphasized the need for the central bank to be "nimble" in adjusting monetary policy amid heightened macro risks."The vast majority of participants judged that upside risks to inflation and downside risks to employment were elevated, and the majority of participants noted that these risks had increased with developments in the Middle East," the minutes showed.Most policymakers were concerned that a prolonged war could soften labor market conditions, possibly warranting policy easing, according to the minutes. However, persistent inflation amid higher oil prices could call for rate increases."The conflicting viewpoints point to a period of policy stability," Sal Guatieri, senior economist at BMO Capital Markets, said in a report. "The Fed is on hold until it has greater clarity on the direction of the Iran war and its effects on the economy and inflation."Airline and cruise operator stocks jumped, with Carnival (CCL) up 11%, among the top gainers on the S&P 500. United Airlines (UAL) surged 7.8%. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and American Airlines (AAL) were also up, along with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).In company news, Meta Platforms (META) shares jumped 6.5% after the tech giant unveiled its Muse Spark artificial intelligence model.Delta Air Lines (DAL) logged better-than-expected first-quarter results amid robust corporate and leisure demand. The air carrier's shares rose 3.8%.Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Shares of the US oil giant fell 4.7%, while smaller rival Chevron (CVX) slumped 4.3%, the steepest decline on the Dow.Gold was last up 1.4% at $4,750.70 per troy ounce, while silver gained 3.4% to $74.44 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAL$CCL$CVX$DAL$LUV$META$NCLH$RCL$UAL$XOM
US Markets

Equity Markets Jump Intraday, Oil Sinks Following US-Iran Ceasefire

US benchmark equity indexes rallied intraday, while oil prices slumped after Washington and Iran agreed to a two-week ceasefire.The Nasdaq Composite jumped 2.9% to 22,651.5 after midday Wednesday, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average increased 2.6% to 47,803.5. The S&P 500 advanced 2.4% to 6,778.6. Barring energy's 4.6% decline, all sectors were in the green, led by a 3.9% rise in communication services.West Texas Intermediate crude oil sank 15% to $95.85 a barrel intraday, while Brent futures tumbled 13% to $95.40.US President Donald Trump, who had set an 8 pm ET, Tuesday, deadline for Tehran to fully reopen the Strait of Hormuz, agreed to suspend planned attacks on Iran for two weeks upon Pakistan's request. Tehran said it would allow "safe passage" through the key trading route, subject to coordination with Iranian authorities.However, reports about ceasefire violations signified the possible fragile nature of the pact."While markets are hailing the agreement as cause for celebration, it remains to be seen if the ceasefire will hold, and if flows resume through the Strait of Hormuz," Stifel said in a note.Iran halted oil tanker traffic through the waterway after Israel attacked Lebanon, CNN reported Wednesday, citing semi-official news agency Fars. Separately, Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates reportedly said they were targeted with Iranian drones and missiles.Airline and cruise operator stocks jumped intraday, with Carnival (CCL) up 11%, the top gainer on the S&P 500. United Airlines (UAL) surged 9.9%, among the best performers on the index. Southwest Airlines (LUV) and American Airlines (AAL) were also up sharply, along with Norwegian Cruise Line (NCLH) and Royal Caribbean Cruises (RCL).US Treasury yields were lower intraday, with the 10-year rate down 6.4 basis points at 4.28% and the two-year rate dropping six basis points to 3.77%.In company news, Meta Platforms (META) shares soared 7.9%, among the best performers on the S&P 500, after the tech giant unveiled its Muse Spark artificial intelligence model.Delta Air Lines (DAL) logged better-than-expected first-quarter results amid robust corporate and leisure demand. The air carrier's shares were up 5.8% intraday.Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict. Shares of the US oil giant were down 5.9%, while smaller rival Chevron (CVX) fell 5.5%, the steepest decline on the Dow.Gold was up 1.7% at $4,764.70 per troy ounce, while silver gained 4.7% to $75.35 per ounce.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAL$CCL$CVX$DAL$LUV$META$NCLH$RCL$UAL$XOM
US Markets

Exxon Mobil Flags First-Quarter Output Hit Due to Middle East Conflict

Exxon Mobil (XOM) expects its global oil-equivalent output to take a hit in the first quarter due to production disruptions caused by the Middle East conflict.Production at certain upstream assets in Qatar and the United Arab Emirates was impacted beginning in March, according to an Exxon regulatory filing. The attacks included those on two liquefied natural gas trains in Qatar.These disruptions could lower Exxon's global oil-equivalent output by roughly 6% on a sequential basis in the first quarter, the company said Wednesday."Public reports indicate the (train) damage will take a prolonged period to repair," Exxon said. "Pending an on-site evaluation, we are unable to comment on the length of time before the two trains return to normal operations."The Middle East assets represent some 20% of the company's oil-equivalent production across the world, but a smaller percentage of upstream earnings, according to the filing.Including the impact of reduced crude availability at its Asia Pacific operations, Exxon said it expects a 2% sequential drop in its global energy products throughput in the first quarter.Shares of the US oil giant were down 5.8% in Wednesday trade. Smaller rival Chevron's (CVX) stock fell 5.6%. Crude oil prices tumbled following a two-week ceasefire between the US and Iran.Exxon expects a surge in energy prices following the 39-day long US-Israel war with Tehran to boost its first-quarter upstream earnings. The company is scheduled to release its first-quarter results on May 1."First-quarter earnings per share are expected to be higher than the fourth quarter of 2025, excluding unfavorable timing effects that will reverse over time," the company said.Exxon said that it normally sees negative timing effects during times of rising prices.The company said timing effects could result in a $3.3 billion to $4.1 billion hit to first-quarter energy products earnings related to transactions for crude and finished products.Price: $154.13, Change: $-9.78, Percent Change: -5.97%

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