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Commodities

Refiners Rally as Renewed US-Iran Fighting Lifts Fuel Margins, TPH Says

US refining equities surged last week, outpacing the broader market as renewed fighting between the US and Iran stoked concerns over energy supplies, driving a sharp climb in gasoline and diesel cracks, TPH Energy Research strategists said in a note Monday.TPH analysts said refining equities jumped 8% last week, outperforming the broader S&P 500, which gained 1.2%.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said higher-beta refiners led the advance, with Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) shares rising 12.5%, PBF Energy (PBF) gaining 11.2%, and CVR Energy (CVI) climbing 8.7%.Blair said that the rally came as renewed US-Iran tensions have stoked concerns over potential disruptions to crude and refined product flows, pushing gasoline and diesel margins higher.US gasoline cracks rose by about $3 per barrel last week to $40/bbl, with the West Coast and Rockies regions posting the strongest gains.Diesel margins climbed even more sharply, surging $10/bbl to $53/bbl, buoyed by stronger pricing across the West Coast, Rockies, Gulf Coast and Midwest markets.TPH said the East Coast and Gulf Coast markets entered Q3 with the largest improvement in refining margins over the quarter.Meanwhile, global markets showed mixed signals. Northwest Europe gasoline margins climbed $3/bbl to $37/bbl, reaching the highest level in five years, while Singapore gasoline margins weakened by $5/bbl to $23/bbl amid softer regional demand and supply dynamics.TPH said forward refining margins also strengthened. The 2026 and 2027 6-3-2-1 crack spread futures curves improved by $2/bbl and $3/bbl, respectively, reaching $19/bbl and $14/bbl, driven largely by gains in diesel markets.Crude oil differentials also improved during the week. TPH said Syncrude and Alaska North Slope crude each widened by $8/bbl over Brent, while other grades, including WTI, Mars, Maya, Western Canadian Select at Houston, Western Canadian Select premiums at Hardisty and Bakken also strengthened.WTI differentials improved by $1/bbl, while Mars and Maya gained $1/bbl each. Bakken widened by $2/bbl, the bank said.However, despite the recent rally, most refining stocks remain valued below their three-year forward consensus enterprise value-to-EBITDA averages.TPH said only Marathon Petroleum (MPC) and Valero Energy (VLO) are currently trading above their historical valuation benchmarks.Price: $70.20, Change: $+4.42, Percent Change: +6.72%

$CVI$MPC$PARR$PBF$VLO
Equities

Raymond James Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $340 From $300, Maintains Strong Buy Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $278.88, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Equities

BMO Capital Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $310 From $290, Maintains Outperform Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $278.88, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Equities

Evercore ISI Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $300 From $250, Maintains In Line Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $278.88, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Commodities

Investors Favor Mid-Cap Refiners as Sector Fundamentals Strengthen, TPH Energy Says

Refining investors remain optimistic as stronger fuel margins, supportive market fundamentals and geopolitical developments continue to strengthen the sector, TPH Energy said in a Friday note.TPH Energy said investors showed the most interest in mid-cap refiners Delek US Holdings (DK), HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO) attracted the most attention among large-cap companies.Investors focused on the breakdown of the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which boosted gasoline and diesel refining margins, while also watching Ukrainian drone strikes on Russian refineries, a recovery in Chinese refining activity and low fuel inventories, TPH Energy said.Market participants also examined regional refining trends, including weaker Midwest gasoline margins compared with the Gulf Coast during the summer, along with Western Canadian Select takeaway constraints, the note added.Investors also highlighted potential benefits from Small Refinery Exemptions for Delek US Holdings, Par Pacific Holdings and HF Sinclair, the note said.TPH Energy also expects Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy, HF Sinclair, Delek US Holdings and Par Pacific Holdings to generate enough cash in the first half to support significant shareholder returns in the second half of 2026.Price: $55.66, Change: $-0.43, Percent Change: -0.77%

$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Asia Markets

Update: US Equity Indexes Decline, Crude Oil Jumps as Trump's Threats to Strike Iran Again Elevate Geopolitical Risk

(Updates with index/price moves, macroeconomic data, and political news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes fell while volatility jumped with crude oil and government bond yields after President Donald Trump warned of more strikes on Iran after saying a peace deal signed in June "is over"The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.2% to 52,294.8, with the Nasdaq Composite down 0.2% to 25,760.5, and the S&P 500 lower by 0.5% to 7,469.1 after midday Wednesday.Energy was the standout gainer, with Valero Energy (VLO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) leading the S&P 500. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's top gainer. On Nasdaq, the top spot went to Baker Hughes (BKR).The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 6% to 17 after Trump said, per a Bloomberg report, the US would probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade on the country's ports.American forces launched strikes against more than 80 targets in Iran, including air defense systems, command-and-control networks, coastal radar installations and anti-ship missile capabilities, in response to recent attacks on commercial shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, according to a Deutsche Bank note on Wednesday. The strikes were accompanied by the US Treasury's decision to revoke a waiver that had allowed new Iranian oil sales, it said."We hit them very hard last night," Trump said Wednesday on the sidelines of a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders in Ankara, Turkey. "Probably hit them hard again tonight."The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent soared 7% to $79.37 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate surged 6.9% to $75.29 a barrel.After the burial ceremony of Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei - killed by an Israeli strike at the outset of the conflict - ends on July 9, both warring sides could adopt an even harder stance, driving a further uptick in geopolitical risk premiums, according to a note from Rystad Energy."Even if no sustained physical disruption materializes, uncertainty around vessel safety, insurance costs, potential delays, and the risk of further retaliation is likely to keep volatility elevated in the near term," the Rystad note said.US Treasury yields rose, reflecting market concern that higher crude oil prices, driven by a supply shock, will make it harder for the Federal Reserve to fight inflation. The two-year yield jumped 5.8 basis points to 4.22%, and the 10-year climbed 6.2 basis points to 4.59%.Inflation concerns also sent gold futures down 2.7% to $4,045.6 and silver futures lower by 5.5% to $57.98.In economic news, the minutes from the Fed's policy meeting on June 16-17 are due at 2 pm ET. Investors will parse the views on the direction of interest rates at a time when the market is pricing in hikes. The probability of a 25-basis-point increase in rates is the highest among all other policy outcomes in September, October, and December, the CME FedWatch tool showed Wednesday.Meanwhile, in company news, Apple (AAPL) said Wednesday that Broadcom (AVGO) will produce chips for use in the iPhone maker's products in a deal likely worth more than $30 billion.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$AAPL.AVGO$BKR$CVX$OXY$PSX$VLO
Japan

Update: US Equity Indexes Slide, Crude Oil Surges After Trump Threatens More Strikes on Iran

(Updates with index/price moves and political news from the first paragraph.)US equity indexes slumped while volatility surged with crude oil and government bond yields after President Donald Trump warned of more strikes on Iran after saying a peace deal signed in June "is over"The Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 1.5% to 52,107.8, with the Nasdaq Composite down 1% to 25,572.5, and the S&P 500 lower by 1% to 7,434.1 after midday Wednesday.Energy was the standout gainer, with Valero Energy (VLO), Occidental Petroleum (OXY), and Phillips 66 (PSX) leading the S&P 500. Chevron (CVX) was the Dow's top gainer. On Nasdaq, the top spot went to Baker Hughes (BKR).The CBOE Volatility Index jumped 13% to 18.18 after Trump said, per a Bloomberg report, the US would probably launch further strikes on Iran and could resume a blockade on the country's ports."We hit them very hard last night," Trump said Wednesday on the sidelines of a summit of the North Atlantic Treaty Organization leaders in Ankara, Turkey. "Probably hit them hard again tonight."The front-month global benchmark North Sea Brent soared 7% to $79.37 a barrel, and the US West Texas Intermediate surged 6.9% to $75.29 a barrel.US Treasury yields rose, with the two-year yield jumping 5.8 basis points to $4.22% and the 10-year climbing 6.2 basis points to 4.59%.

Dow JonesNasdaq CompositeS&P 500$BKR$CVX$OXY$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Refiners Poised to Beat Q3 Estimates on Strong Product Margins, TPH Energy Says

TPH Energy Research expects US independent refiners to deliver stronger-than-expected Q3 earnings as gasoline and diesel margins remain robust, it said in a Tuesday note.TPH raised its average Q3 earnings per share estimate for the sector to $5.83 from $4.97, above the consensus forecast of $5.22 per share.TPH still expects earnings to remain below its Q2 estimate of $6.18 and the Street's $5.74.TPH said refining margins have started the third quarter strongly, supported by an unusual seasonal increase in US gasoline margins.TPH said its US gasoline margin indicator increased to $35 per barrel in Q3 from $28 per barrel in Q2, after adjusting for Renewable Volume Obligation costs and measuring against Brent crude.US gasoline inventories have fallen to five-year lows and stand 6% below the five-year average, while gasoline yields have remained about 3 percentage points below normal over the past two weeks as refiners favored diesel production, the brokerage said.Diesel margins also improved, with TPH's US futures indicator increasing to $49/bbl in Q3 from $48/bbl in Q2 despite the US-Iran peace agreement.Low inventories, Russian refinery outages and a steeper global cost curve continued supporting diesel markets.TPH said crude differentials have narrowed against Brent for several grades, including WTI-Cushing, Syncrude, Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Western Canadian Select at Houston and Alaska North Slope, creating a modest headwind for refiners.Company-specific indicators also strengthened early in the quarter, with Valero Energy (VLO) up $7.86/bbl from the prior quarter, Phillips 66 (PSX) up $5.71/bbl and Marathon Petroleum (MPC) up $4.08/bbl, according to TPH.The firm said lower crude backwardation, wider octane spreads and cheaper tanker rates should improve capture rates. Backwardation indicates strong near-term demand or constrained spot supply, with futures prices trading below spot prices.However, weaker jet fuel margins relative to diesel, flat crude prices and a roughly $2/bbl increase in Renewable Volume Obligation costs will offset some of those gains.TPH expects Midwest ethanol margins to improve by about 3 cents per gallon from the Q2 on stronger co-product returns, while retail operations recover. Renewable diesel and polyethylene margins are expected to weaken.Analysts forecast the largest earnings upside versus consensus for Valero Energy, HF Sinclair (DINO) and Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), while maintaining estimates below consensus for PBF Energy (PBF) and CVR Energy (CVI).TPH expects refiners to increase shareholder distributions in Q3 after limiting returns in Q2 because of market volatility.The firm forecasts an average total capital return yield of 9% in Q3, up from 5% in Q2, led by Marathon Petroleum, Valero Energy, Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair and Delek US Holdings (DK).

$CVI$DINO$DK$MPC$PARR$PBF$PSX$VLO
Commodities

US Refining Margins Weakened in June, Q2 Trends Remained Strong, TPH Says

US refining indicators declined across the major refiners in June as weaker gasoline and diesel margins and narrower crude differentials weighed on profitability, although second-quarter performance remained well above the prior quarter, TPH Energy Research analyst Matthew Blair said in a Thursday note.Among the large-cap refiners, Phillips 66 (PSX) posted the greatest quarterly improvement. Its refining indicator slipped to $26.23 per barrel in June from $29.45 in May, but still finished the second quarter up $17.22/bbl from the first quarter. The company benefited from a sharp decline in crude prices late in the month, which supported its Central Corridor operations, while Gulf Coast margins were aided by a lag in refined product pricing. West Coast performance also exceeded expectations.Valero Energy's (VLO) refining indicator fell to $27.58/bbl in June from $33.70 in May as refining economics weakened across all regions, particularly on the West Coast. Despite the monthly decline, the indicator increased by $12.23/bbl quarter over quarter. The company also saw stronger economics for ethanol and renewable diesel during the quarter, supported by lower corn and feedstock costs and stronger renewable fuel credits.Marathon Petroleum's (MPC) refining and marketing indicator dropped to $27.50/bbl in June from $35.88 in May, with the sharpest deterioration in the Mid-Continent region, followed by the West Coast and Gulf Coast. Wider sweet crude differentials and improved market structure partially offset the weakness.Even so, Marathon's indicator finished the second quarter up $14.21/bbl from the first quarter.Overall, June marked a pullback from May's stronger refining environment, but second-quarter indicators remained significantly higher than first-quarter levels across the sector.Price: $177.09, Change: $+2.59, Percent Change: +1.48%

$MPC$PSX$VLO
Equities

JPMorgan Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $294 From $299, Maintains Overweight Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $269.88, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Equities

Goldman Sachs Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $286 From $283, Maintains Buy Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $270.18, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Equities

Barclays Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $279 From $261, Maintains Overweight Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $270.18, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Commodities

Refiners Outperform Broader Market on Stronger Fuel Margins, TPH Energy Says

Renewed Middle East supply concerns boosted refining equities and fuel margins last week, while second-quarter refining fundamentals continued to improve, TPH Energy said in a Monday note.US refining stocks climbed 7.6% last week, outperforming the S&P 500's 2.0% decline after tensions between the US and Iran intensified. The note cited Iran's strike on a cargo ship and the US response targeting drone and missile storage sites.Among refiners, PBF Energy (PBF) gained 15.6%, Delek US Holdings (DK) rose 15.3%, and Valero Energy (VLO) advanced 9.8%. CVR Energy (CVI) fell 1.1% after unexpectedly replacing its chief executive officer, TPH Energy said.Gasoline cracks strengthened across key regions, with US margins rising $6 per barrel to $32/bbl, Northwest Europe gaining $5/bbl to $29/bbl, Singapore increasing $1/bbl to $31/bbl, and 2026 gasoline futures climbing $1/bbl to $14/bbl, TPH said.Diesel cracks also moved higher, as US margins increased $3/bbl to $38/bbl, Northwest Europe rose$7/bbl to $41/bbl, Singapore added $1/bbl to $42/bbl, and 2026 diesel futures advanced $2/bbl to $35/bbl, TPH added.TPH expects second-quarter 2026 product cracks to post their strongest quarterly performance since the second quarter of 2022. US gasoline cracks are on pace to rise $16/bbl quarter over quarter to $25/bbl, while US diesel cracks are expected to increase $15/bbl to $45/bbl.The Southwest posted the greatest improvement in refining margins, both quarter-over-quarter and year-over-year. The West Coast recorded the smallest quarterly gain, while the Mid-Continent showed the weakest year-over-year improvement, TPH said.Higher crude differentials offset part of the stronger refining margins as several grades tightened against Brent. West Texas Intermediate tightened by $1/bbl, Louisiana Light Sweet by $2/bbl, Mars by $4/bbl, Maya by $3/bbl, Bakken by $7/bbl, Syncrude by $5/bbl, West Texas Sour by $2/bbl, and Alaska North Slope by $11/bbl, the company added.Western Canadian Select widened by $4/bbl at Hardisty and $1/bbl at Houston. TPH also expects the West Texas Intermediate market structure to reduce the value of US inland barrels by $5/bbl during the second quarter.

$CVI$DK$PBF$VLO
Commodities

US Refining Capacity Falls in 2025 After Major Plant Closures, EIA Says

US refinery capacity fell in 2025 as the permanent closure of two major plants outweighed marginal efficiency gains across the industry, Energy Information Administration strategists said in a note on Monday.EIA analysts said operable atmospheric distillation capacity totaled 18.2 million barrels per calendar day as of Jan. 1. The figure represents a decline of more than 250,000 b/cd, or about 1%, compared with the same period a year earlier, the analysts said.The contraction leaves the US with 130 operable refineries, two fewer than in 2025.The EIA said the decline was driven by the shutdown of two refineries in 2025, including a 263,776-b/d facility in Houston operated by LyondellBasell (LYB) and a 138,700-b/d refinery in Los Angeles owned by Phillips 66 (PSX).Combined, the two closures removed about 400,000 b/d of capacity from the market.However, the agency said incremental capacity expansions and process improvements at existing refineries partially offset the reduction. The EIA identified 130 operable refineries in the US as of Jan. 1, down from 132 a year earlier.The closure of the Phillips 66 Los Angeles facility represented a 5% reduction in refining capacity on the US West Coast, within the Petroleum Administration for Defense District 5.The EIA said that while Valero Energy's (VLO) 145,000-b/d Benicia refinery in California remained operational as of Jan. 1, the facility has since ceased refining operations and was removed from the agency's monthly capacity estimates beginning in March 2026.The closure of the LyondellBasell refinery, by contrast, represented a smaller proportional impact on the US Gulf Coast refining system, accounting for about 3% of capacity in PADD 3, where refining output exceeds regional fuel demand.Overall Gulf Coast refining capacity declined by less than 2% in 2025 after accounting for capacity additions elsewhere in the region, the EIA said.The agency said that the three largest US refiners, Marathon Petroleum (MPC), Valero Energy and Exxon Mobil (XOM), each reported calendar-day capacity increases of less than 1% compared with 2025, reflecting what it described as small-scale operational improvements rather than major expansion projects.Phillips 66 recorded an overall decline in capacity following the closure of its Los Angeles facility.Meanwhile, Chevron (CVX) overtook PBF Energy (PBF) to become the fifth-largest US refiner after posting modest capacity gains.Motiva Enterprises' Port Arthur refinery in Texas retained its position as the largest US refinery by calendar-day capacity at 656,000 b/d, while Marathon Petroleum's Galveston Bay refinery remained the country's largest on a stream-day basis, with a capacity of 678,000 barrels per stream day.Price: $177.06, Change: $+5.41, Percent Change: +3.15%

$MPC$PSX$VLO$XOM
Equities

TD Cowen Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $292 From $276, Maintains Hold Rating

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $268.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Commodities

Trump Pushes to Make Year-Round E15 Sales Permanent, TPH Says

The Trump administration is seeking permanent authorization for year-round sales of E15 gasoline, a move that could modestly boost US ethanol demand and support biofuel producers, TPH Energy strategists said in a Thursday note.Matthew Blair, an analyst at TPH Energy, said that the White House Office of Management and Budget has requested legislation to allow the higher-ethanol fuel blend to be sold year-round as part of a supplemental budget proposal.The measure follows the passage of a similar bill in the House of Representatives in May, though its prospects in the Senate remain uncertain.TPH analysts said E15, a gasoline blend containing 15% ethanol, is currently restricted during the summer months in much of the US due to concerns that its higher volatility could contribute to smog formation in hot weather.Federal regulators have routinely issued temporary waivers to allow summertime sales, but the latest proposal would make those permissions permanent.The move marks the latest step by the administration to support the US biofuels industry, a key constituency in agricultural states across the Midwest.Though the potential increase in demand may be limited initially, analysts say even incremental gains in ethanol blending rates could benefit major producers, including Green Plains (GPRE), Archer-Daniels-Midland (ADM) and Valero Energy (VLO).There are fewer than 5,000 E15 pumps across the US, representing less than 2% market share, Blair said, adding that even with approval for year-round E15, actual volumes would likely remain quite small at first.However, TPH said ethanol's current pricing advantage over gasoline could encourage wider adoption. Midwest ethanol is trading at about $1.85 per gallon, compared with about $2.92 per gallon for Midwest gasoline.The US consumed about 13.6 billion gallons of ethanol last year, largely unchanged from the previous year and below pre-pandemic levels.TPH said a permanent shift to year-round E15 sales would likely provide a gradual increase in domestic ethanol demand rather than an immediate surge, analysts said. However, at a time when US biofuel consumption has stagnated, even modest growth could improve margins and utilization rates for ethanol producers.The proposal now faces the more difficult challenge of securing Senate approval, where bipartisan support for biofuel legislation has historically been uneven despite backing from farm-state lawmakers and the ethanol industry.Price: $251.73, Change: $+9.29, Percent Change: +3.83%

$ADM$GPRE$VLO
Oil & Energy

US Refining Indicators Weaken in June as Crack Spreads Soften, Q2 Gains Hold, TPH Energy Says

US refining margins have softened heading into the end of the second quarter, pressured by falling gasoline and diesel cracks following progress on a peace deal between the US and Iran, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.TPH analysts said company-specific refining indicators are trading down by $5 to $11 per barrel month-to-date in June, reflecting a broader cooling in energy markets.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said that while the geopolitical developments have weighed on product cracks, the impact across the sector has been uneven.Par Pacific Holdings (PARR) has demonstrated the most resilience among the group, with its refining indicator down $4.94 per barrel month-to-date.TPH said that the Singapore market, a key benchmark, has declined slightly and remains well above its five-year average, while falling crude prices have provided a tailwind for asphalt indicators.The bank said that large-cap refiners show a more mixed picture. Phillips 66 (PSX) is down $7.36/bbl month-on-month but is seen benefiting from potential derivative gains linked to falling crude prices.Valero Energy (VLO) has declined by $7.50/bbl, with strength in Gulf Coast diesel partially offsetting the narrowing of crude differentials.HF Sinclair (DINO) is down $8.03/bbl amid weakness in West Coast and Rockies cracks, though improved Southwest markets partly cushion the impact.Meanwhile, Marathon Petroleum (MPC) shows the steepest monthly decline at $10.85/bbl, driven by softness in Midcontinent refining margins.However, despite the monthly weakness, TPH still expects strong quarter-to-date performance across the sector.Phillips 66 leads gains at $15.84/bbl, followed by Par Pacific at $15.03/bbl, Marathon Petroleum at $13.39/bbl, Valero Energy at $11.77/bbl, and HF Sinclair at $11.13/bbl.Price: $50.94, Change: $-0.11, Percent Change: -0.22%

$DINO$MPC$PARR$PSX$VLO
Commodities

Gulf Coast Heavy Crude Spreads Diverge Amid Supply Constraints, TPH Says

US Gulf Coast heavy crude markets are showing signs of divergence as widening discounts for Mexico's Maya blend clash with tightening supplies of Western Canadian Select, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Monday.Matthew Blair, TPH Energy analyst, said that the market for Maya crude has weakened, with state-owned Pemex widening its discretionary "K factor" price adjustment to a $ 9.20-per-barrel discount for July, steeper than the $8.15 set in June and $4.35 in May.TPH analysts forecast that the move will push Maya-Brent differentials toward a $9.71/bbl discount at the start of Q3, a notable shift from the $7.58 average seen in Q2.The broader heavy crude landscape has been volatile in 2026. TPH said differentials widened in Q1 as additional barrels from Venezuela entered the market, but narrowed in Q2 as regional supplies tightened due to reduced Middle Eastern sour crude shipments.Simultaneously, WCS at Houston has seen its discount to Brent narrow significantly to $7.52 in June, down from $15.12 recorded in May.Market participants attribute this tightness in Canadian heavy crude to supply-side constraints at the source. TPH said unfavorable wet weather in Canada has hindered oil sands operations, compounded by an unplanned outage at Cenovus Energy's (CVE) Foster Creek and Christina Lake assets.The bank said the shifting dynamics in heavy crude pricing carry significant implications for Gulf Coast refiners, specifically Valero Energy (VLO), PBF Energy (PBF), Phillips 66 (PSX), and Marathon Petroleum (MPC).Price: $25.68, Change: $+0.52, Percent Change: +2.05%

$CVE$MPC$PBF$PSX$VLO
Equities

Morgan Stanley Adjusts Price Target on Valero Energy to $255 From $232

Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $265.67, according to analysts polled by FactSet.

$VLO
Commodities

Supply Disruptions Lift Refiner Q2 EPS Outlook Above Consensus, TPH Energy Says

TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%

$CVI$DINO$DK$PARR$PSX$VLO

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