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Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $265.67, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
TPH raised its average second-quarter 2026 earnings estimate for refiners to $6.38 per share from $5.67, exceeding the $5.40 consensus forecast and sharply above Q1 earnings of $0.59 per share, the firm said Thursday.TPH said supply disruptions tied to the US-Iran conflict continue to support refining fundamentals and improve earnings expectations across the sector.The International Energy Agency expects global refinery runs to fall to 78.7 million barrels per day in the second quarter from 83.6 million b/d in Q1 and 82.9 million b/d a year earlier, TPH said.TPH said shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz and refinery damage linked to the conflict are reducing global fuel supplies.US gasoline cracks increased by about $20 per barrel over the quarter to $25/bbl, compared with a five-year average of $20/bbl, the firm said.US diesel cracks climbed by roughly $21/bbl to $48/bbl, more than double the five-year average of $22/bbl, TPH said.The West Coast, Southwest and Rocky Mountain regions posted the strongest margin gains relative to historical averages, while the Mid-Continent and Midwest regions lagged, according to the firm.US refiners increased operating rates to address supply shortages, pushing utilization to 91% in the second quarter from a five-year average of 89%, TPH said.Higher operating rates helped gasoline exports reach 880,000 b/d and distillate exports rise to 1.56 million b/d, above five-year averages of 828,000 b/d and 1.19 million b/d, respectively, the firm said.TPH said tighter availability of Middle Eastern medium-sour crude has narrowed crude differentials, although Western Canadian Select prices at Hardisty and Houston remain under pressure from constrained Canadian pipeline capacity.The firm added that stronger backwardation is creating a $ 5/bbl-over-the-quarter headwind for inland US crude barrels, while elevated tanker costs are weighing on coastal markets.TPH expects lower crude prices, wider West Coast jet fuel premiums, reduced downtime and a $4/bbl increase in octane spreads to support second-quarter capture rates.However, the firm said rising Renewable Volume Obligation costs approaching $4/bbl, tighter crude differentials, weaker butane blending demand and the $5/bbl WTI structure impact remain key challenges.TPH forecast group capture rates of 73% in the second quarter, compared with 72% in the first quarter.The firm said renewable diesel indicators improved by $1.39 per gallon, Midwest ethanol margins increased by $0.33/gal, polyethylene chain margins rose by $0.40 per pound and $0.32/lb, while UAN and ammonia fertilizer prices advanced 33% and 27%, respectively.TPH said potential Small Refinery Exemption proceeds could equal 23% of market capitalization for Delek US Holdings (DK), 7% for Par Pacific Holdings (PARR), and 4% each for HF Sinclair (DINO) and CVR Energy (CVI), assuming partial waivers for all applications.TPH said its second-quarter earnings forecasts exceed consensus estimates for Par Pacific Holdings, HF Sinclair, Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), while its estimate for CVR Energy remains below consensus.Price: $47.19, Change: $+0.01, Percent Change: +0.02%
Phillips 66 (PSX) posted the largest month-over-month refining indicator increase in May, while HF Sinclair Corporation (DINO) delivered the greatest improvement in Q2, TPH Energy said Monday.Stronger gasoline cracks across the North Atlantic, Mid-Continent and Gulf Coast regions lifted Valero Energy's (VLO) refining indicator to $33.70 per barrel in May from $28.97/bbl in April, according to TPH.While diesel cracks and crude differentials produced mixed results, wider West Texas Intermediate, Louisiana Light Sweet and Argus Sour Crude Index spreads helped push Valero's Q2 refining indicator $13.50/bbl above Q1 levels, TPH said.Valero's ethanol indicator increased to $0.66 per gallon in May from $0.65/gal in April and now stands $0.16/gal higher over the quarter, according to TPH.Despite a decline to $1.07/gal from $1.22/gal in April as feedstock costs rose, Valero's renewable diesel indicator remains $0.15/gal above Q1 levels, TPH said.Support from lower crude prices in the Central Corridor and narrower Dated Brent spreads in the Atlantic Basin helped lift Phillips 66's refining indicator to $29.45/bbl in May from $17.92/bbl in April, according to TPH.Although Phillips 66's renewable diesel indicator eased to $2.07/gal from $2.30/gal in April, the metric remains $1.32/gal higher quarter over quarter, TPH said.Marathon Petroleum (MPC) increased its refining and marketing indicator to $35.88/bbl in May from $33.02/bbl in April as Mid-Continent margins improved $15.10/bbl and Gulf Coast margins advanced $6.56/bbl month over month, according to TPH.West Coast margins declined $0.59/bbl month over month, while narrower sweet and sour crude differentials and weaker backwardation weighed on results, with the Q2 indicator standing $16.53/bbl above Q1 levels, TPH said.HF Sinclair increased its renewable volume obligation-adjusted refining indicator to $33.81/bbl in May from $27.35/bbl in April as stronger Mid-Continent and West Coast margins lifted the metric, bringing its Q2 improvement to $18.85/bbl quarter over quarter, TPH said.TPH said HF Sinclair's lubricants business continued to strengthen, with Group I-III margins averaging $108.78/bbl above Q1 levels in Q2, while its renewable diesel indicator remains up $0.69/gal quarter over quarter despite a $0.04/gal decline in May, and wider Western Canadian Select differentials could provide additional upside.Price: $182.20, Change: $+1.95, Percent Change: +1.08%
President Donald Trump's Jones Act waiver allowing fuel and crude barrels to be moved between US ports had a limited impact on high domestic gasoline prices amid higher freight rates and smaller shipment volumes, according to a Reuters analysis on Wednesday.In March, President Donald Trump eased restrictions under the century-old Jones Act, allowing foreign-flagged ships to transport crude and fuel between domestic ports to support coastal fuel supplies.The waiver aimed to increase shipments from Gulf Coast refiners to East and West Coast markets, where refinery shortages and limited pipeline access continue to tighten fuel availability.National gasoline prices climbed to $4.49 per gallon Tuesday from below $3 before the Iran conflict erupted in late February, while California averaged $6.11 per gallon, the analysis added, citing American Automobile Association data.According to the White House, data compiled since the first Jones Act waiver was granted indicate that more supply could reach US ports more quickly. Administration officials are reportedly happy with the waiver's results and have conveyed to the oil industry that future extensions may be granted, sources told Reuters.Federal figures showed Valero (VLO) and Phillips 66 (PSX) used the exemptions about 50 times during the first two months, transporting 2.6 million barrels of crude alongside 7.5 million barrels of refined fuels.Because disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz pushed tanker rates sharply higher, the waiver delivered only modest shipping savings while transported volumes remained small compared with nationwide fuel demand.University of Chicago energy policy professor Ryan Kellogg said that unusually high freight costs and a shortage of available international tankers made it difficult to secure vessels.American Maritime Partnership President Jennifer Carpenter said the waiver failed to "lower prices at the pump, and materially increase the flow of product across the country."White House officials viewed the waiver positively after additional fuel cargoes reached domestic ports faster, while administration sources signaled openness to extending the measure if needed, according to the analysis.Over 60% of gasoline and blendstock shipments transported under the waiver were delivered to California, totaling roughly 3 million barrels, or about 2.1 million gallons per day, federal data showed.Shipments into California, Alaska, Florida, South Carolina and Oregon combined averaged approximately 84,000 barrels daily, compared with total US fuel consumption near 8.75 million barrels per day, the analysis added.Argus data showed that foreign-flagged vessels moving fuel from the US Gulf Coast to the West Coast could reduce shipping costs by about 6.6 cents per gallon, or nearly 1% of California gasoline prices, while Jones Act tankers remained cheaper on East Coast routes due to strong Asian vessel demand.The waiver also altered shipping patterns, with one US tanker carrying Alaskan crude to South Korea in April for its first international voyage since 2014, while industry sources warned that foreign competition on domestic routes could tighten US tanker availability further.(Market Chatter news is derived from conversations with market professionals globally. This information is believed to be from reliable sources but may include rumor and speculation. Accuracy is not guaranteed.)
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $260.11, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
Refining equities and product crack spreads declined last week as reports of progress in US-Iran peace negotiations pressured margins and softened sector sentiment, TPH Energy strategists said in a note on Tuesday.Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH Energy, said the refining group fell 1.3%, underperforming the S&P 500's 0.9% gain, with high-beta names leading losses.PBF Energy (PBF) dropped 4.9%, while Phillips 66 (PSX) outperformed the group with a 1.6% rise, making it the lone notable gainer among diversified refiners.TPH said the decline was driven by a sharp compression in refined product cracks. US gasoline cracks fell $12 to $25 per barrel, while US diesel cracks declined $7 to $45/bbl.Regional softness was most pronounced in the Midwest, Midcontinent and Rockies, TPH analysts said, reflecting broad-based margin pressure.International cracks were mixed. Northwest Europe gasoline and diesel eased by $1 and $3/bbl, respectively, while Singapore markets moved against the trend, with gasoline up $3/bbl and diesel rising $5/bbl.Forward curves also reflected the softer tone. The 2026 gasoline strip moved $1 lower, while diesel was unchanged.On the crude side, the Brent-WTI spread narrowed to $3/bbl from $5 previously, reducing a key advantage for US refiners that benefit from discounted domestic crude.Blair said grades, including Mars, Louisiana Light Sweet and Bakken crude strengthened, while Western Canadian Select at Hardisty, Mexico's Maya crude and Alaska North Slope held largely steady.Macro and industry developments added to the mixed backdrop. US regular gasoline prices eased 5 cents to $4.45 per gallon. India raised retail gasoline prices in response to war-related supply dynamics involving Iran.Kuwait's refinery throughput has reportedly fallen by half since the Middle East conflict began, while US jet fuel production has climbed above 2 million barrels per day in recent weeks.On corporate activity, Delek US Holdings (DK) disclosed a $100 million share repurchase authorization from REH. However, despite the recent pullback in refining equities, TPH said most refiners continue to trade above their three-year average forward EBITDA valuation multiples, except for Phillips 66 and Valero Energy (VLO).
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $260.11, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
US refiners delivered a softer but still solid quarter for shareholder returns in Q1, as rising crude prices and higher equity valuations pressured free cash flow and reduced buyback activity, TPH Energy strategists said in a note Friday.The average total capital return yield across refiners eased to 4.9% in Q1 from 6.3% in the prior quarter and 9.4% a year ago, the bank said. Matthew Blair, analyst at TPH, said the decline was driven largely by lower share repurchases and slightly reduced dividend yields.Share buybacks averaged a 2.8% yield, down from 4% in Q4 and 6.2% a year earlier, as higher crude prices and seasonal factors weighed on free cash flow. TPH said that half of the refiners in its coverage universe generated negative free cash flow in the quarter.Dividend yields also slipped to 2.1% from 2.3% in Q4 and 3.2% a year ago, despite dividend increases from Phillips 66 (PSX) and Valero Energy (VLO), reflecting higher average share prices during the period.Blair said among individual names, the strongest total capital return yields in Q1 were led by Par Pacific (PARR) at 9.2%, followed by Marathon Petroleum (MPC) at 7%, HF Sinclair (DINO) at 6.8%, and Valero Energy (VLO) at 6.1%. CVR Energy (CVI) was the only refiner that did not return capital during the quarter.Going ahead, TPH expects average total capital return yields to ease further to about 4.5% in Q2, despite what it described as robust profitability and free cash flow generation.The bank identified three main headwinds, including higher share prices, reduced opportunistic buybacks at Par Pacific, and a shift among some refiners, such as Phillips 66 and PBF Energy (PBF), toward debt reduction rather than share repurchases.TPH projects that Valero will lead total capital return yields in Q2 at an estimated 8.1%, followed by HF Sinclair at 7.5% and Marathon Petroleum at 6.7%.CVR Energy is expected to lag its peer group, with a projected yield of 1.1%, even as the energy firm moves to reinstate its dividend.Price: $176.42, Change: $+2.37, Percent Change: +1.36%
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.33, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:We raise our 12-month target price by $59 to $289, reflecting a combination of relative valuation and DCF model analyses. On a relative basis, we apply an 8.2x multiple of enterprise value to projected 2027 EBITDA, above peers. We argue for a premium valuation on the basis if superior return on invested capital (about 17% above that of independent refining peers). On this basis, we get a value of $275 per share. Meanwhile, our DCF model, using free cash flow growth of 4.2% per year for 10 years, 2.5% thereafter, yields a value of $303 per share. We raise our 2026 EPS estimate by $14.86 to $27.85 and 2027's by $6.42 to $19.65. Refining margins are likely to surge higher in Q2 as constrained volumes in the Persian Gulf help widen the gap between Brent and WTI crude (normally $4/b, that gap currently sits at $8/b), and we see possibility of this situation persisting in future quarters as well. VLO maximized its jet fuel production in March, which makes sense to us given market scarcity.
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $262.53, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $247.32, Change: $+0.49, Percent Change: +0.20%
Valero Energy's (VLO) 415,000 b/d Port Arthur refinery is gradually restoring operations more than a month after a Mar. 23 explosion disrupted output, Wood Mackenzie said Thursday.The blast damaged the diesel hydrotreater DHT-243, forcing a plant-wide shutdown and triggering phased recovery efforts as operators began restarting select processing units.Wood Mackenzie tracked progress using aerial surveillance and infrared monitoring, which showed reconstruction underway alongside sequential unit restarts across the facility, it said.The refinery restarted its fluid catalytic cracker on Apr. 26 and began ramping up its largest crude unit the same day, though utilization remains below normal levels, Wood Mackenzie added.Operators have ramped up major units, including a 265,000 b/d crude distillation unit and a 172,000 b/d vacuum distillation unit, which are currently increasing throughput, though not yet at full capacity.Several units have restarted, including a 150,000 b/d CDU and a 48,000 b/d VDU on April 2; hydrocrackers of 57,000 b/d and 45,000 b/d on April 3 and April 15; and an 80,000 b/d FCC on April 26, while a 47,000 b/d diesel hydrotreater and a sulfur recovery unit remain offline.The explosion also disrupted the adjacent Diamond Green renewable diesel plant, which depends on refinery utilities, though it resumed operations later in March, Wood Mackenzie added.Initial damage assessments showed the diesel hydrotreater sustained the most severe impact, with collapsed structures and extensive piping deformation across the unit.Nearby units experienced lighter damage, while two cooling towers and a control room within the blast zone suffered more significant structural impacts, Wood Mackenzie said.Repair crews have focused on rebuilding the cooling towers, with cranes, scaffolding, and dismantling work visible as contractors replaced damaged components.Despite progress, multiple units remained offline as of Apr. 27, including parts of the refinery's largest crude distillation system, limiting output recovery, according to Wood Mackenzie.The prolonged outage has tightened regional fuel markets, as the loss of 415,000 b/d capacity coincides with geopolitical tensions affecting global supply balances, Wood Mackenzie added.Wood Mackenzie said its combined aerial and field monitoring will continue tracking restart timelines and operational recovery across the refinery.
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $245.42, Change: $-7.16, Percent Change: -2.83%
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $259.94, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)
Valero Energy (VLO) has an average rating of overweight and mean price target of $254.76, according to analysts polled by FactSet.(covers equity, commodity and economic research from major banks and research firms in North America, Asia and Europe. Research providers may contact us here: https://www..com/contact-us)Price: $251.19, Change: $-0.12, Percent Change: -0.05%
CFRA, an independent research provider, has providedwith the following research alert. Analysts at CFRA have summarized their opinion as follows:VLO easily surpassed Q1 expectations with adjusted EPS of $4.22 versus $0.89 in the prior year, beating consensus by $1.06 for the second consecutive quarterly blowout. The Refining segment drove performance, generating $1.8B in adjusted operating income versus $605M in the prior year, with margins widening to $14.90/b vs. $9.78, reflecting improved market fundamentals and solid 2.9M barrel per day throughput enabling strong fixed cost absorption. Both renewable segments showed marked improvement, with Renewable Diesel swinging to $139M operating income from a $141M loss and Ethanol contributing $90M versus $20M in the prior year. VLO remains on track for Q3 completion of its $230M FCC optimization project at St. Charles, which is expected to enhance refining margins via increased high-value product yields. We note California remains challenging, with the West Coast region posting an operating loss, but after the Benicia plant closure, California now represents less than 5% of VLO's refining capacity.
US petroleum refiner Valero Energy (VLO) Thursday reported higher refining throughput volumes across most operating regions in Q1.For the quarter ended March 31, refining throughput volumes averaged 2.9 million barrels per day, higher than the 2.8 mmbbls/d in the same quarter of 2025.Throughput at refineries on the US Gulf Coast, Mid-Continent, and North Atlantic inched up, while throughput at the US West Coast refineries dropped.Consequently, refining yields increased to 2.9 mmbbls/d from 2.8 mmbbls/d, with gasoline and blending components rising to 1.40 mmbbls/d from 1.38 mmbbld/d, and distillates growing to 1.11 mmbbls/d from 1.08 mmbbls/d.Ethanol production also climbed to 4.6 million gallons per day year over year from 4.5 mmgal/d, according to the report.The company said it sold 3 mmgal/d of renewable diesel during the period, up from the prior year's 2.4 mmgal/d.Going forward, Valero expects the fluid catalytic cracker at the St. Charles Refinery to begin operations in Q3, following unit optimization totaling $230 million.Price: $247.16, Change: $-4.14, Percent Change: -1.65%
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